Canadian federal polling division files

[mileslunn]

I am new to these forums, but I was wondering if anyone knows how to create these maps as they don't seem to work on my computer.  I was able to crunch the poll numbers by municipality however in some parts of Canada, so I could do any municipal maps that anyone would like.

[mileslunn]

I've created some municipal maps on my computer, but I cannot figure out how to transfer them to the forum.  Could someone e-mail me on how I can transfer them since it won't let me copy and paste.

[mileslunn]

Still not able to copy on this file.  Do you type in the file name under hyperlink.  I know this is annoying, but could someone walk me through this.  I should fine after getting it right once.

[mileslunn]

Still Cannot find the place to add picture.  Maybe I haven't signed up properly?

[mileslunn]

Maybe thats the problem.  In the mean time, I am happy to give out some of the data and if anybody wishes to put into a map that would be great

Below is by municipality and winning party in terms of the percentage range

GTA

Tories over 50%

Brock, Clarington, Scugog, Uxbridge, Whitby, Whitchurch-Stouffville, King, Georgina, East Gwilimbury, Caledon, and Halton Halls (All of these are largely exurbs and low density suburbs as well as have sizeable rural components)

Tories in the 40-50% range

Oshawa, Aurora, Newmarket, Oakville, Milton, and Burlington

Liberals in the 40-50% range

Ajax, Pickering, Toronto, Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Brampton, and Mississauga (The Liberals won the city proper and all the inner suburbs, you can see that on a map easily)

GVRD

Tories over 60%

Township of Langley, Electoral District A, Anmore

Tories 50-60%

Lions Bay, West Vancouver, Belcarra, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Richmond, City of Langley, Barnston Island

Tories 40-50%

District of North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Delta, Surrey, White Rock

Liberals 40-50%

University Endowment Lands

NDP 40-50%

Burnaby, New Westminster

Tories 30-40%

City of North Vancouver

Liberals 30-40%

Bowen Island and Vancouver (My parents have a getaway cabin there and despite its rural nature it is very similiar to the Gulf Islands in its politics and for our American viewers somewhat akin to Bainbridge Island and Martha's Vineyard.  Fits the profile of an island getaway with strong liberal leanings)

Hamilton pre-amalgamation

Tories over 50%

Ancaster, Flamborough, and Glanbrook

Tories 30-40%

Stoney Creek and Dundas

NDP over 40%

Hamilton (old city)

Ottawa pre-amalgamation

Tories over 60%

Rideau, Osgoode, West Carleton, and Goulbourn (all the rural areas essentially)

Tories 50-60%

Nepean and Kanata

Tories 40-50%

Gloucester and Cumberland

Liberals 40-50%

Rockcliffe Park and Vanier (ironically the Tories won Rockcliffe Park in 2006, although its very wealthy so more you traditional business type Tories, not your right wing populist ones)

Liberals 30-40%

Ottawa (old city)

Niagara Regional Municipality

Tories over 60%

West Lincoln

Tories 50-60%

Grimsby, Lincoln, Wainfleet, and Niagara on the Lake

Tories 40-50%

Pelham, St. Catharines, Niagara Falls, and Fort Erie

Liberals 30-40%

Port Colborne (This was John Maloney's home town, probably the reason for this one)

NDP 30-40%

Thorold and Welland

Waterloo Regional Municipality

Tories over 50%

North Dumfries, Wilmot, Woolwich, and Wellesley (all the rural municipalities otherwise)

Tories 40-50%

Cambridge

Tories 30-40%

Kitchener

Liberals 30-40%

Waterloo (they narrowly lost the riding, but Waterloo has the university and also a strong high-tech sector, the location of RIM, the maker of blackberry thus why it is the most liberal part of K-W)

Essex County by municipality

Tories over 40%

Kingsville and Leamington

Tories 30-40%

LaSalle, Amherstburg, Lakeshore, and Essex

Liberals over 30% and won

Pelee Island

NDP over 50%

Windsor

NDP 30-40%

Tecumseh

Simcoe County by municipality

Tories over 50% (they didn't crack the 60% in any of the municipalities though)

Bradford-West Gwilimbury, Innisfil, New Tecumseth, Wasaga Beach, Adajala-Tosorontio, Clearview, Essa, Oro-Medonte, Ramara, Severn, Springwater, and Barrie (mostly the ones not along Lake Huron)

Tories 40-50%

Tiny, Midland, Tay, Orillia, and Collingwood

Liberals 30-40%

Penetanguishene (has a large Francophone community)

I haven't assembled a map for Ottawa and Simcoe County, but if someone has a blank municipality one I could do it quickly.  The others I have so I could e-mail them to anyone who could then post them.

[mileslunn]

I have also done two provinces by county and I have the maps ready so I could e-mail them to anyone who is willing to post them.

New Brunswick

Tories over 60%

Carleton County and Charlotte County (I believe these have large Evangelical populations, but someone who knows more about them could maybe explain why they are so Conservative)

Tories 50-60%

Queens County, Sunbury County, and Victoria County (This went Liberal in a landslide in 2006 although I think Andy Savoy came from this area, plus unlike Carleton County it has a larger Francophone community and is mostly Catholic, still I don't know why it swung so hard to the Conservatives in 2008)

Tories 40-50%

Northumberland County, York County, Albert County, Kings County

Tories 30-40%

Saint John County

Liberals 40-50%

Madawaska County, Restigouche County, Kent County, Westmoreland County (all have a large Francophone community, although ironically the Tories won Madawaska County in 2006.  I am guessing since it is so heavily French, their arts cuts that hurt them in Quebec probably had a spillover effect.  This county seems to move more in line with Quebec than New Brunswick)

NDP over 50%

Gloucester County

Ontario by County

Tories over 60%

Renfrew County and Lanark County (These both went for the Canadian Alliance in 2000)

Tories 50-60%

Simcoe County, Dufferin County, Oxford County, Lambton County, Parry Sound District, Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties, Leeds and Grenville United Counties, Hastings County, Haliburton County, Kawartha Lakes Division (mostly Eastern and Central Ontario, otherwise the areas the Reform/Alliance were most competitive in prior to the merger)

NDP over 50%

Cochrane District

Tories 40-50%

Durham Regional Municipality, Halton Regional Municipality, Niagara Regional Municipality, Grey County, Bruce County, Waterloo Regional Municipality, Brant County, Norfolk County, Perth County (got over 50% if you take out Stratford which was a 3 way split, very arts and culture town so probably why the Tories didn't do so well here), Huron County, Elgin County, Chatham-Kent, Muskoka District, Ottawa (Tories fared poorly in the old city while dominated the amalgmated parts, maybe that is why Harris amalgmated it, he wanted more Tory friendly mayors), Prescott and Russell United Counties, Lennox & Addington County, Peterborough County (got over 50% if you remove Peterborough), Prince Edward county, Northumberland County

Liberals 40-50%

Toronto, York Regional Municipality (Tories also got over 40% here and in the municipality Vaughan both got over 40% although the Liberals dominated the Italian western section and the Tories the Jewish Eastern section), Peel Regional Municipality, Nippissing District (one of only two non-GTA sub-divisions to go Liberal)

NDP 40-50%

Algoma District, Manitoulin District, Rainy River District, Greater Sudbury, Timiskaming District (all Northern Ontario, their strength is very concentrated in a few heavy union areas in Southern Ontario)

Tories 30-40%

Wellington County (got over 50% in every municipality save Guelph which they got in the high 20s), Haldimand County (Independent Gary McHale won many polls near Caledonia where there is a lot of anger over the dispute, he was also pretty right wing too), Middlesex County (got over 50% in the rural municipalities, but 35% in London), Kenora District

Liberals 30-40%

Frontenac County (Largely due to Kingston, lost most of the rural municipalities though, although the Tories were weaker in this area, I am guessing since this was heavily settled by the Loyalists who tended to be more Red Tories.  Kingston has produced a number of Red Tories such as Hugh Segal and Flora MacDonald and use to vote Tory provincially and federally until the party swung to the right)

NDP 30-40%

Hamilton (sharp divide between old city which went heavily NDP, suburbs below the enscarpment which were three way splits and suburbs above the enscarpment which went heavily Tory), Essex County, Thunder Bay District (performed better outside Thunder Bay as the Liberals were stronger in the city where the carbon tax was less of an issue), and Sudbury District.

[mileslunn]

Hey, you should know that the University Endowment lands are part of Greater Vancouver Electoral District A.

Anyways, I'd be happy to make these maps for you when I get some time. Until then, keep making these lists. If you do all of Ontario, I could make a big map. (but, you'd have to combine the amalgamated cities).

True, I guess I meant the unorganized part or the part excluding University Endowment Lands and Barnston Island.  I don't think I could do all of Ontario, I though I could do Southern Ontario as much of the North is unorganized territory

[mileslunn]

Interesting stuff - how are you getting this info? Just looking through all the poll-by-poll files and adding up the polls?

About a month after the election ended, the data was in spreadsheet format on Elections Canada website, so I saved this.  Being in spreadsheet data made it quite efficient and easy to do

Tories over 60%

Carleton County and Charlotte County (I believe these have large Evangelical populations, but someone who knows more about them could maybe explain why they are so Conservative)

The Saint John valley has a lot of Baptists. I'm not sure whether you'd call them "Evangelical" - theologically, they are, but they're more traditional in denominational organization.

The term Evangelical is somewhat subjective I guess.  What I really mean is Conservative Protestant groups.  Baptist, Dutch Reformed, Mormons (not really Protestant but Conservative nonetheless), Pentecoastal, and Calvinist tend to generally be quite Conservative in their views as opposed to more liberal denominations such as the United Church or Anglican.

[mileslunn]

Do you have Quebec by MRC or county equivalent?

No, not yet.  I would take about week for me to get this done, but I could work on this.  They have a lot more MRCs

[mileslunn]

Also, lets still work on getting the poll by poll done if we can.  If someone could show me how to work this, I might be able to e-mail one.

Some other interesting ones though

416 - by former municipality

Liberals over 50%

Scarborough

Liberals 40-50%

Toronto, East York, York, Etobicoke, North York

The interesting part here is more who came in second.  In Toronto, York, and East York, the NDP came in second whereas the Tories in North York, Scarborough, and Etobicoke, otherwise the NDP was strongest near the core of the city while the Tories did better away from it.  I also believe Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse of them, I think over 60% are visible minorities so that might explain why the Liberals do so well there.  Nonetheless the margins are nowhere near what the Tories get in Rural Alberta.

[mileslunn]

Here's Edmonton. (I will and try post other cities soon. I will have to update make some modifications to spreadsheet first.)

Yellow in Edmonton - Sherwood Park is James Ford (Independent)

What is that big red poll in the bottom left?  That seems odd in the rural areas.  Is it an Indian Reserve by any chance as this would be the only logical possibility.

[mileslunn]

Thanks a lot.  I'll have more municipal numbers for Southern Ontario in the coming days so hopefully we can do one for Southern Ontario.  For Liberal supporters it will be very depressing considering how few municipalities outside the GTA went Liberal.

[mileslunn]

Also, lets still work on getting the poll by poll done if we can.  If someone could show me how to work this, I might be able to e-mail one.

Some other interesting ones though

416 - by former municipality

Liberals over 50%

Scarborough

Liberals 40-50%

Toronto, East York, York, Etobicoke, North York

The interesting part here is more who came in second.  In Toronto, York, and East York, the NDP came in second whereas the Tories in North York, Scarborough, and Etobicoke, otherwise the NDP was strongest near the core of the city while the Tories did better away from it.  I also believe Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse of them, I think over 60% are visible minorities so that might explain why the Liberals do so well there.  Nonetheless the margins are nowhere near what the Tories get in Rural Alberta.

Do you have the actual numbers for these?

I just have the Liberal and Conservative.

Toronto:  Liberal 41.1%, Conservative 16.8% (old city pre-amalgmation
East York:  Liberal 40%, Conservative 21.4%
York:  Liberal 46%, Conservative 18.8%
North York:  Liberal 47.1%, Conservative 28.7%
Scarborough: Liberal 51.6%, Conservative 28.4%
Etobicoke: Liberal 47.8%, Conservative 34.7%

Total Toronto 416: Liberal 46.3%, Conservative 25.8%

The fact the Liberals got under 50% in Toronto is really a disaster for them.  Back in 2000, I believe they got almost 60%.  Likewise 26% for the Tories is not bad for a city as large and diverse as Toronto, even if low for the Tories nationally.

[mileslunn]

Here are some more municipalities in Southern Ontario

Dufferin County

Tories over 50%

Mono, Orangeville, Shelburne, Amaranth, East Grafraxa, East Luther Valley, Melancthon

Tories 40-50%

Mulmur

Grey County

Tories over 50%

West Grey, Southgate, Grey Highlands (otherwise the ones away from the lake)

Tories 40-50%

Blue Mountains, Hanover, Meaford, Chatsworth, Georgian Bluffs

Green Party 30-40%

Owen Sound (The only municipality in Ontario they won and I also believe the only one outside of Elizabeth May's riding)

Wellington County

Tories over 50%

Centre-Wellington, Erin, Guelph/Eramosa, Mapleton, Minto, Puslinch, Wellington North

Liberals 30-40%

Guelph

Brant County

Tories over 40%

Brant

Tories 30-40%

Brantford

Bruce County

Tories over 40%

Arran-Elderslie, South Bruce Peninsula, Northern Bruce Peninsula, Huron-Kinloss, Saugeen Shores, South Bruce

Tories 30-40%

Brockton, Kincardine

Halidmand County and Norfolk County are single tier municipalities so Tories 30-40% in Haldimand County and Tories 40-50% in Norfolk County.  The Liberals ironically won Simcoe narrowly but lost badly in the rest of the county.

Perth County

Tories over 50%

North Perth, Perth East, Perth South, West Perth, St. Mary's

Tories 30-40%

Stratford (tight three way split as the NDP, Liberals and Tories all got between 30-33%)

Oxford County

Tories over 60%

Norwich

Tories 50-60%

East Zorra-Tavistock, Tillsonburg, Blandford-Blenheim, South-West Oxford, Zorra

Tories 40-50%

Woodstock and Ingersoll (If you add the CHP on, Ingersoll was the only town where less than 50% voted for parties on the right)

Huron County

Tories over 50%

South Huron

Tories 40-50%

Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh, Bluewater, Central Huron, Goderich, Howick, Huron East, Morris-Turnberry, North Huron

Chatham-Kent is a single tier municipality so Tories 40-50%.  The Liberals ran close to even in Tilbury which has a large Francophone population while the Tories got over 50% in the northern parts primarily

Middlesex County

Tories over 50%

North Middlesex, Adelaide-Metcalfe, Southwest Middlesex, Lucan-Biddulph, Strathroy-Caradoc, Middlesex Centre, Thames Centre

Tories 40-50%

Newbury

Tories 30-40%

London

Elgin County

Tories over 50%

Bayham, Aylmer, Dutton/Dunwich

Tories 40-50%

Central Elgin, St. Thomas, Southwold, West Elgin

Lambton County

Tories over 60%

Lambton Shores, Enniskillen, Oil Springs (whats with Oil Springs and Lambton shores, the Tories got almost 2/3 here which is unheard of elsewhere outside of Eastern Ontario)

Tories 50-60%

Warwick, Brooke-Alvinston, Dawn-Euphemia, Plympton-Wyoming, Petrolia, St. Clair

Tories 40-50%

Sarnia and Point Edward

I've now given all the 519, 905, and 416 municipalities as well as most of Central Ontario.  I just need to do the 613.  I will also try to do Parry Sound District and Muskoka District even though it is disputable whether they are Northern or Southern Ontario.

[mileslunn]

This is going to be one blue map!

I am surprised that London went Conservative. Hmmm...

London was actually a three way split as lets remember each party won one of the three ridings.  The Tories were however the only party to get over 30% in all three ridings.  Yes, it will be one blue map, although I think many of the US ones are much the same.  Pennsylvania when done by municipality is overwhelmingly GOP, even though Obama carried the state.

[mileslunn]

Here is Eastern Ontario

Ottawa, Kawartha Lakes, and Prince Edward County are single tier divisions so Tories 40-50% in Ottawa, Tories 40-50% in Prince Edward County, while Tories 50-60% in Kawartha Lakes.

Renfrew County (Cheryl Gallant's riding, depressing if you are progressive, great if you are a Conservative)

Tories over 60%

Petawawa, Laurentian Valley, Adamston Bromley, Madawaska Valley, Bonnechere Valley, Brunedell, Lyndoch and Raglan, Horton, Killaloe, Hagerty, and Richards; McNab-Braeside, North Algona-Wilberforce, Whitewater Region, Arnprior

Tories 50-60%

Head, Clara, and Maria; Laurentian Hills, Greater Madawaska, Renfrew

Tories 40-50%

Pembroke

Liberals 40-50%

Deep River (This is the town near the Chalk River research labratory for the isotopes are)

Lanark County  I remember at a bar, someone saying that I was in the middle of redneck country when I told them I was from Toronto, while I was visiting here.  This is also the county that started the Ontario Landowner's Association although now throughout Rural Ontario you see signs on people's property saying this is our land, back off Government.  This is also where Randy Hillier comes from.

Tories over 60%

Mississippi Mills, Lanark Highlands, Beckwith, Carleton Place, Drummond/North Elmsley, Montague, Tay Valley,

Tories 50-60%

Perth and Smith Falls

Prescott and Russell United Counties

Tories over 50%

Russell

Tories 40-50%

Clarence-Rockland, The Nation, Champlain

Liberals 40-50%

Alfred and Plantagenet, Hawkesbury, Casselman, East Hawkesbury

Stormont, Dundas, and Glengarry United Counties

Tories over 60%

North Dundas, South Dundas, South Stormont

Tories 50-60%

Cornwall, North Glengarry, North Stormont, South Glengarry

Leeds and Grenville United Counties

Tories over 60%

Rideau Lakes, Athens, Elizabethtown-Kitley, Augusta, North Grenville

Tories 50-60%

Westport, Leeds and Thousands Islands, Gananoque, Front of Yonge, Brockville, Merrickville-Wolford, Prescott

Lennox & Addington County

Tories over 50%

Addington Highlands

Tories 40-50%

Stone Mills, Greater Nepanee, Loyalist

Frontenac County

Tories over 50%

North Frontenac and Central Frontenac (fairly sparsely populated so thats why the Liberals still won this county)

Tories 40-50%

South Frontenac

Liberals 40-50%

Frontenac Islands (beat the Tories by 2 votes here, both around 40%)

Liberals 30-40%

Kingston (The Tories did worse here, but the Liberals also slightly than Frontenac Islands, my guess is due to the university there were probably more Green and NDP votes)  Hopefully someone can do a map for Kingston as well.

Haliburton County

Tories 50-60%

Minden Hills, Dysart et Al, Algonquin Highlands, Highlands East

Hastings County

Tories over 60%

Tudor and Cashel,

Tories 50-60%

Hastings Highlands, Carlow-Mayo, Faraday, Bancroft, Wollaston, Limerick, Mamora and Lake, Madoc, Sterling-Rawdon, Tweed, Centre Hastings, Quinte West

Tories 40-50%

Belleville

Tories 30-40%

Tyendinaga (Large Mohawk population, Liberals won the polls on the reserve)

Northumberland County

Tories over 50%

Cramahe and Trent Hills

Tories 40-50%

Brighton, Alnwick-Haldimand, Hamilton, Cobourg, Port Hope

Peterborough County

Tories over 50%

Asphodel-Norwood, Cavan-Monaghan, Duoro-Dummer, Galway-Cavendish-Harvey, Havelock-Belmont-Metheun, North Kawartha, Otonabee-South Monaghan, Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield

Tories 40-50%

Peterborough

[mileslunn]

You should probably split the reserves off, but that's just me. (They are separate municipalities, after all)

Oh, and are there any places that are 70%+ Conservative? I'm surprised I haven't seen any yet.

I would like to split off the reserves, unfortunately a lot of the polling data doesn't give this one, although you are right their voting patterns are quite different.  There were a few that got in the high 60s and if you take the former municipalities prior to amalgmation some surpassed 70%.

[mileslunn]

Awesome work, Trebor!

Thanks.

Now here's Quebec City

Whats with the Conservative over 80% in one poll in Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere.  Was this the home town of the MP by any chance so such numbers are pretty much unheard of outside of Alberta.

[mileslunn]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I should be able to get the done by the end of today.

[mileslunn]

You missed Malahide in Elgin County, by the way

Malahide was Tories 50-60%.

[mileslunn]

Okay here is Parry Sound District and Muskoka District

Parry Sound District

Tories over 50%

The Archipelago, Armour, Carling, Joly, Machar, Magnetawan, McDougall, McKellar, Ryerson, Strong, Whitestone

Tories 40-50%

Kearney, Powassan, Parry Sound, Callander, McMurrith/Monteith, Perry, Seguin, Nipissing

Muskoka District

Tories over 50%

Georgian Bay, Muskoka Lakes, Lake of the Bays (the more sparsely populated towns)

Tories 40-50%

Huntsville, Bracebridge, Gravenhurst

Nipissing District

Tories over 60%

South Algonquin (the Northewestern part of Cheryl Gallant's riding is largely in Algonquin Park thus largely uninhabited

Tories 40-50%

Chrisholm, Calvin

Liberals 40-50%

North Bay, Mattawa, Temagami, Bonfield, East Ferris, Mattawan, Papineau-Cameron (Outside of southern Nipissing, it seems it is too far North for the Tories, but too far South for the NDP thus the one area of Northern Ontario that stuck with the Liberals).

NDP 30-40%

West Nipissing

Manitoulin District Something to cheer up for our NDP supporters

NDP over 50%

Burpee and Mills

NDP 40-50%

Gore Bay, Northeastern Manitoulin and the Islands, Barrie Island, Billings, Central Manitoulin, Gordon

NDP 30-40%

Assiginack, Tekuhammah

Cockburn Island has 10 people only so too small to give data.

[mileslunn]

Great work!



If you want me to fill in the black areas, that would be great too. You might also want to give me totals for some unorganized areas. I know that big one in Parry Sound District actually has a sizable population. (My cottage is there)

Looks good.  The North one in Parry Sound was Tories 50-60%.  The other big blank I think is where Algonquin Park is so I am not sure how many people actually live in that area.  In terms of the few Indian Reserves left blank, I think the Liberals won most of those pretty strongly, but they are only one or two polls.  For the Alonguin Park though, I am pretty sure it was Tories around 60% as this includes the very northern end of Haliburton Kawartha Lakes-Brock and its border with Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke.

[mileslunn]

Anyone think they could do one for Kingston and Barrie.  Kingston would be interesting.  Barrie is probably pretty much all blue this time around, although still interesting but less so than 2006 and 2004 when it was much closer.

[mileslunn]

Not entirely, I just know the neighbouring polls were around 60% for the Tories, but maybe best to leave it blank despite its massive size.  This must be where Algonquin Park is as this seems like a huge area for only 51 people.

[mileslunn]

Actually, that was in 2001. In 2006 it had 571 people. Statscan says to "use that with caution" though, whatever that means. I'm not sure where the people are though... it is mostly just Algonquin Park.

I am guessing many of them are seasonal residents.  Since the last election was October 14, 2009, that is right on the edge of the end of tourist season.