Which Carter states are now unwinnable for the Democrats?

[Phony Moderate]

....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky.

[You kip if you want to...]

Alabama.

[Rob]

Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina.

[You kip if you want to...]

Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina.

South Carolina was an 8 point win for McCain, hardly unwinnable.

[Rob]

Where are you going to make up that eight-point difference? South Carolina is racially polarized, much like Alabama or Mississippi.

[phk]

Where are you going to make up that eight-point difference? South Carolina is racially polarized, much like Alabama or Mississippi.

The same trend thats liberalizing VA and NC will occur at SC but at a slower pace.

[pogo stick]

Alabama

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky.

Obama is probably going to win West Virginia and Kentucky in 2012, I hope you realize.

[minionofmidas]

Where are you going to make up that eight-point difference? South Carolina is racially polarized, much like Alabama or Mississippi.

The same trend thats liberalizing VA and NC will occur at SC but at a slower pace.

It's begun already. That northwestern bit of the state will be very hard to crack though, and with it the state. You realize that's the most densely populated bit.

[You kip if you want to...]

Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky.

Obama is probably going to win West Virginia and Kentucky in 2012, I hope you realize.

Someone's optimistic.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Someone's optimistic.

If Palin is the nominee, forget West Virginia and Kentucky.

[You kip if you want to...]

Someone's optimistic.

If Palin is the nominee, forget West Virginia and Kentucky.

I'd be happy in the GOP nominated Palin. Easy win for Obama

[Antonio the Sixth]

WV, KY, TN, AL, MS, LA, AR ( except for Hillary ).

All that except in case of a huge landslide ( 20+pts ahead ).

[pogo stick]

Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky.

Obama is probably going to win West Virginia and Kentucky in 2012, I hope you realize.

Hope you realize that is a fake fanatsey. And that your a commie

[Franzl]

Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky.

Obama is probably going to win West Virginia and Kentucky in 2012, I hope you realize.

I thought Democrats always won Kentucky.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hope you realize that is a fake fanatsey. And that your a commie

Well you're a Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity fan.

[Franzl]

Hope you realize that is a fake fanatsey. And that your a commie

Well you're a Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity fan.

I don't think a retort is appropriate here. If that's what you want to believe, be my guest.

Didn't you at one point claim that John Kerry won Kentucky?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hope you realize that is a fake fanatsey. And that your a commie

Well you're a Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity fan.

I don't think a retort is appropriate here. If that's what you want to believe, be my guest.

Didn't you at one point claim that John Kerry won Kentucky?

Pooing is cool.

[Franzl]

Hope you realize that is a fake fanatsey. And that your a commie

Well you're a Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity fan.

I don't think a retort is appropriate here. If that's what you want to believe, be my guest.

Didn't you at one point claim that John Kerry won Kentucky?

Pooing is cool.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

probably along with the conventional other Dems states will be the result I believe in 2012

[HAnnA MArin County]

West Virginia is definitely winnable for the Democrats, and Kentucky to a lesser extent; it just depends on the nominee. John Kerry and Barack Obama, two big city liberals from Boston and Chicago, were the worst fitting Democrats for these Appalachian states. If you look at West Virginia, Democrats control everything in the state: both U.S. Senate seats, two of the three U.S. House seats, the Governor's Mansions and all statewide elected offices and have supermajorities in the state legislature. I'd hardly classify West Virginia as unwinnable for the Democrats. If Democrats were to ever nominate a Southern WASP moderate populist, West Virginia would definitely be a safe state for the Democrats. Democrats can also still win Kentucky, but just like in West Virginia, Barack Obama and John Kerry were bad candidates for these states. Had Hillary been the nominee, she would have undoubtedly carried West Virginia and possibly Kentucky, two states that gave her overwhelming victories in the primaries. Arkansas is similar to West Virginia in that Democrats basically control everything there. The reason why the state swung so heavily GOP this year is pretty obvious - I just mentioned her name up above. So I'd say these three states are still winnable for the Democrats.

Tennessee and Louisiana, I'm not too sure of. If the demographics keep changing to benefits the Republicans, I don't think Democrats will be too competitive in these places. These were two of five states that swung more GOP in 2008, but I don't think the Clinton factor had a large part to do with it in these places, especially seeing as how Obama won Louisiana during the primaries, but I reckon after Hurricane Katrina, several of the state's African American voters in the New Orleans area relocated and probably never returned, a move that doesn't bode well for the Democrats. Louisiana is definitely trending more Republican, and Tennessee is a mystery to me. Obama did well in Memphis and Nashville but was pretty much hammered all throughout the rest of the state, even in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Middle and Northwestern Tennessee that gave huge support to Bill Clinton. I'm not naive; I'm sure racism had something to do with it, but Tennessee has gotten more and more Republican since they rejected their native son Al Gore in 2000, so I think it's something deeper than race in Tennessee. I'd categorize Tennessee and Louisiana as "Tossups" for the Democrats.

As for the states where I don't think Democrats stand a chance at winning, those are simple. Obviously the Deep South states of Mississippi and Alabama are not winnable for the Democrats anytime soon. These are both, as someone else mentioned, racially polarized states combined with the Dixie atmosphere and the Bible Belt, just makes it really hard for Democrats to have any success here at the federal level.

As for South Carolina and Georgia, I agree with some previous posters that they will soon turn into swing states. I read somewhere where South Carolina was the only Southern state where white voters swung more towards Obama in 2008, and as for Georgia, it was surprisingly close in 2008 because of the historic African American turnout, but that combined with the growing Atlanta area makes it definitely winnable for the Democrats. The key to winning Georgia, I think, is the Atlanta suburbs where Republicans always seem to rack up the numbers and offset the margins inside the cities where Democrats usually perform best here.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Alabama.

And only Alabama. And maybe Kentucky.

[pragmatic liberal]

Where are you going to make up that eight-point difference? South Carolina is racially polarized, much like Alabama or Mississippi.

Not as much as you'd think. According to the '08 exit polls, only about 10% of white voters in Alabama and Mississippi voted for Obama. In South Carolina, Obama got 26% of the white vote. It would not be a big stretch for him to win 33% in 2012, and if he's headed for a big win, he *might* be able to inch those numbers past 33%, enough to win the state.