Is nationwide gay marriage inevitable?

[Mechaman]

Due to the unpredictability of the American political landscape, I voted yes.

Do you think people in 1857 after the Dred Scott Case thought slavery would be done away with within a decade?

Do you think people in 1957 after federal troops had to escort the Little Rock Nine into Little Rock Central High School thought just ten years later in the landmark case Loving v. Virginia the right for two people to marry, no matter what their race, would be upheld?

Keep events like these in mind.

Your examples demonstrate the unpredictability of the US court system.

Damn it!
But still, what if the US court system says gay people have the right to marry no matter what state they're in? People may not like the court's decision, but it would still be legal.

[Mint]

No.  Things change and peoples minds change.

I wouldn't shock me to see a shift torwards the traditional marriage in the next 15 years making gay rights and marriage a underground issue once again.

Sure this was being said/asked in the 1970s.

Based on what? Every thing points in the opposite direction. If anything the concept of government sanctioned marriage is more likely to collapse, given the shift in attitudes plus the reality that we're basically broke.

[Mechaman]

No.  Things change and peoples minds change.

I wouldn't shock me to see a shift torwards the traditional marriage in the next 15 years making gay rights and marriage a underground issue once again.

Sure this was being said/asked in the 1970s.

Based on what? Every thing points in the opposite direction. If anything the concept of government sanctioned marriage is more likely to collapse, given the shift in attitudes plus the reality that we're basically broke.

That's probably most likely to happen.

[minionofmidas]

No.  Things change and peoples minds change.

I wouldn't shock me to see a shift torwards the traditional marriage in the next 15 years making gay rights and marriage a underground issue once again.

Sure this was being said/asked in the 1970s.

Based on what? Every thing points in the opposite direction. If anything the concept of government sanctioned marriage is more likely to collapse, given the shift in attitudes plus the reality that we're basically broke.

That's probably most likely to happen.

Unlikely, but I sure would like it.

[Zarn]

Yes. All civilisations progress to the left. America's just a little retarded.

It'll get there.

What does this have to do being being left or right wing?

[phk]

Yes. All civilisations progress to the left. America's just a little retarded.

It'll get there.

Ancient cultures like the Greeks and Romans were more accepting of homosexuality than their descendants and now their descendant's descendants are more accepting of homosexuality. Looks more like flip-flopping or a societal sine wave.

Whose to say we always progress to the left?

[The Ex-Factor]

It's the Western view of the world. Society is continually progressing towards a more enlightened and advanced state

(conveniently overlooks the Middle Ages, doesn't it?)

[Middle-aged Europe]

You mean like "ever", even if it takes another 300 years or so? Well, probably. In the long run, the only thing that can prevent the nationwide legalization of gay marriage is that the United States ceases to exist before gay marriage had a chance to become national. So the real question is which of these two events will happen first.

[Nutmeg]

57% of Americans under 40 support gay marriage.
31% of Americans over 40 support gay marriage.

It's obvious.

This could be either an instance of issue evolution (as those of the older generation are replaced with those of the younger generation, the electorate's views shift) or merely that young and old people disagree on this issue.  I think it's unlikely that a person who currently supports same-sex marriage would change his or her mind on the issue as he or she ages (which we do see more often with positions on certain economic issues such as taxation), but these numbers alone don't convince me that a nationwide shift is inevitable, while it probably is in most states.

[Vepres]

Unless it turns out that gays and lesbians are a bunch of disguised and very confused alien invaders bent on world domination, yes.

[Jacobtm]

Ancient cultures like the Greeks and Romans were more accepting of homosexuality than their descendants and now their descendant's descendants are more accepting of homosexuality. Looks more like flip-flopping or a societal sine wave.

Not really true.

The Greeks (really, when we say Greeks we mean Athenians most times) didn't have concepts of "Heterosexuality" and "Homosexuality", but attached shame to certain sexual acts deemed feminine or passive.

It was OK for an older man to lust after a younger man/boy, but the boy was supposed to not want it. An older man being penetrated was seen as being shameful, but the guy doing the penetration wasn't particularly shameful.

And while they accepted some things we call "homosexual", they weren't close to accepting "gay marriage" as a legitimate social institution.

[nclib]

57% of Americans under 40 support gay marriage.
31% of Americans over 40 support gay marriage.

It's obvious.

This could be either an instance of issue evolution (as those of the older generation are replaced with those of the younger generation, the electorate's views shift) or merely that young and old people disagree on this issue.  I think it's unlikely that a person who currently supports same-sex marriage would change his or her mind on the issue as he or she ages (which we do see more often with positions on certain economic issues such as taxation), but these numbers alone don't convince me that a nationwide shift is inevitable, while it probably is in most states.

Likely. Also, those who haven't yet reached adulthood (or haven't been born) will be entering a society where homosexuality is more accepted than it was for most Americans over 40.

[Padfoot]

I imagine that all east coast states north of DC, all west coast states (including Hawaii, excluding Alaska), and several interior west states (namely Nevada and Colorado) will have full fledged gay marriage or something very similar by 2013.  By that time I would also expect to see civil unions legalized or on the horizon in the upper midwest as well as Florida, Alaska, Arizona, New Mexico, and Montana.  Demographic changes in the south Atlantic might push one or two of those states closer to this position as well.  With so many states recognizing same sex partnerships (several of them rather large) and widespread public support for gay marriage, there will be a strong push in Congress to end DOMA and allow full federal recognition of same sex couples.  There may also be a Supreme Court case in the making which could at the very least, force states with bans to recognize same sex marriages performed in other states.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

No, unless the SCOTUS butts in and forces it.

[Brittain33]

Ancient cultures like the Greeks and Romans were more accepting of homosexuality than their descendants and now their descendant's descendants are more accepting of homosexuality. Looks more like flip-flopping or a societal sine wave.

Whose to say we always progress to the left?

If we suffer a massive breakdown of society or the economy or the equivalent of barbarian invasions, I am sure that what remains will regress to "conservative" values and that outsiders of any kind will be persecuted. If New York comes to resemble Rome ca. 700 AD, with a fraction of the population engaged in herding goats on the Upper West Side, gay marriage won't be on the agenda.

I am assuming that America continues more or less as it is now. Given that assumption, I don't see reactionaries winning over society. 

[Brittain33]

Unless it turns out that gays and lesbians are a bunch of disguised and very confused alien invaders bent on world domination, yes.

TASTE LIKE CRAB... TALK LIKE PEOPLE

[Padfoot]

Unless it turns out that gays and lesbians are a bunch of disguised and very confused alien invaders bent on world domination, yes.

TASTE LIKE CRAB... TALK LIKE PEOPLE

lol

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I'd say yes, though I also wonder about Utah & Idaho.

[Magic 8-Ball]

Yes, but I think that the Supreme Court will have to rule against the last holdouts, a la Lawrence v. Texas.

[Scam of God]

Of course it is. Even the most recalcitrant bigot - i.e. the most Southern of Southerners - is paralyzed before the force of popular belief.

[ShamDam]

Bump.

[IceSpear]

Maybe by 2100.

Haha, jeez.

[Brittain33]

No, unless the SCOTUS butts in and forces it.

Ironically, the opposite happened today.

[pbrower2a]

My take:

Ignore shades, as I derive this map from another partly of my creation:

white -- SSM already legal.
green -- inevitable through majority support at the next opportunity
blue -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court  but popular anyway
orange -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court even if unpopular.
yellow -- borderline case, could easily drift favorable.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd say around 2017.