Is nationwide gay marriage inevitable?

[pbrower2a]

My take, revised to 6PM EST 10/10/14 :

Ignore shades, as I derive this map from another partly of my creation:

white -- SSM already legal.
green -- inevitable through majority support at the next opportunity
blue -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court  but popular anyway
orange -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court even if unpopular.
yellow -- borderline case, could easily drift favorable.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Duh. Considering how over 10 states "joined the club" in less than a week, I'm sure by 2018 it will be national.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, the Family Research Council has lost.

[pbrower2a]

Any state that elects Democrats to replace a right-wing Republican Governor and Attorney General (I think of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan) will get SSM fast -- by February 2015 if the Supreme Court doesn't beat the political system to it.

In view of how the US Supreme court has ruled -- anyone who has any chance to protect a ban on SSM will need a powerful argument.



 

[Sol]

My take, revised to 6PM EST 10/10/14 :

Ignore shades, as I derive this map from another partly of my creation:

white -- SSM already legal.
green -- inevitable through majority support at the next opportunity
blue -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court  but popular anyway
orange -- SSM likely in accordance with an impending ruling of the US Supreme Court even if unpopular.
yellow -- borderline case, could easily drift favorable.

I really don't  get why you don't include data from states where SSM is legal; it'd be interesting to see how opinion in UT and OK evolves

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Go to his polls on SSM laws. He includes written results for every state the next post after the map.

[Bacon King]

Due to the unpredictability of the American political landscape, I voted yes.

Do you think people in 1857 after the Dred Scott Case thought slavery would be done away with within a decade?

Do you think people in 1957 after federal troops had to escort the Little Rock Nine into Little Rock Central High School thought just ten years later in the landmark case Loving v. Virginia the right for two people to marry, no matter what their race, would be upheld?

Keep events like these in mind.

Your examples demonstrate the unpredictability of the US court system.

Damn it!
But still, what if the US court system says gay people have the right to marry no matter what state they're in? People may not like the court's decision, but it would still be legal.

Foresight Award goes to mechaman

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd say around 2017.

This was assuming SCOTUS didn't take the case up.

[Boston Bread]

Yes, everyone in America will soon be forced into one big polyamorous gay marriage with every other American of the same gender.

[Suburbia]

Yes, now it is. It wasn't surprising. It was going to happen.