Bush 49 / Kerry 47 - ABC Tracking UNCHANGED

[The Vorlon]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/2004tracking/track100704.html

LVs

Bush 49
Kerry 47
Nader 1

RVs

Bush 48
Kerry 47

Yesterday there was a 4 point shift to Kerry.  Since this is only day 4 of this track there is no way to know if this was a strong Kerry sample rolling on, or a strong Bush sample rolling off.

We will know on Saturday.

Just about all the polls at the RV level are showing something in the Tied +/- MOE range, maybe a couple points edge to Bush.

With the debates and all, voter "energy" is going to be super choppy for a while, so keep you eye on the RV polls to see what is "really" happening.

The last 10 days or so will be a good time to focus back on the LV numbers.

[Shira]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/2004tracking/track100704.html

LVs

Bush 49
Kerry 47
Nader 1

RVs

Bush 48
Kerry 47

Yesterday there was a 4 point shift to Kerry.  Since this is only day 4 of this track there is no way to know if this was a strong Kerry sample rolling on, or a strong Bush sample rolling off.

We will know on Saturday.

Just about all the polls at the RV level are showing something in the Tied +/- MOE range, maybe a couple points edge to Bush.

With the debates and all, voter "energy" is going to be super choppy for a while, so keep you eye on the RV polls to see what is "really" happening.

The last 10 days or so will be a good time to focus back on the LV numbers.

In their first poll after the debate the gap was 6% - I think.