Do usual New Jersey patterns apply to 2009?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I have been thinking about this at length and Republicans polling well at this time usually turns because:

1.) leads are small (3-5 pts on average)
2.) undecideds are very, very high (R near 42-44%)
3.) Democratic base comes home

While number 3 is certainly possible with Corzine registering only around 80% Dem support, the other two are not.  Christie's leads usually are around double digits and he usually breaks 50%.

Are we to believe this is for real?

[Rowan]

The problem is, the Republicans aren't usually leading, they are usually down 5 points or so, thats why Reps get optimistic. This time the REP is up double-digits. So no, the "pattern" doesn't apply.

[Franzl]

Let's put it this way, the Republicans have a much bigger chance than usual. I'm not quite sure what that means.

I still think Corzine will pull it out in the end.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The problem is, the Republicans aren't usually leading, they are usually down 5 points or so, thats why Reps get optimistic. This time the REP is up double-digits. So no, the "pattern" doesn't apply.

That applies to Forrester both times, but Kean was leading at this point (albeit by very little with high undecideds)

Its just that Christie (according to the polls) does not even need a break of undecideds, he just needs his voters not to leave his camp

[Rowan]

The problem is, the Republicans aren't usually leading, they are usually down 5 points or so, thats why Reps get optimistic. This time the REP is up double-digits. So no, the "pattern" doesn't apply.

That applies to Forrester both times, but Kean was leading at this point (albeit by very little with high undecideds)

Its just that Christie (according to the polls) does not even need a break of undecideds, he just needs his voters not to leave his camp

Kean and Menendez were both leading at this point depending on the pollster, and Kean never was out of the low 40's. Christie has led 15 straight polls, and 3 out of the last 4 is over 50%. This is COMPLETELY different.

[tmthforu94]

It simply comes down to what will happen between now and November. If the economy improves, like Obama is promising, then Corzine will win. If it stays the same, or worsens, then Republicans will win New Jersey and Virginia. Christie has to be praying the economy keeps sucking if he wants to keep his lead. The better the economy, the smaller his lead.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Corzine's problem is that "former Goldman Sachs CEO" is not something you want on your resume now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The general NJ pattern involves Dem-leaning Independents to move from undecided to Democratic in the last few days of the campaign. This could still happen, but considering that Christie is over 50% in the polls, that usual pattern won't be enough on it's own.

[Keystone Phil]

Corzine's problem is that "former Goldman Sachs CEO" is not something you want on your resume now.

Yeah and the GOP is using that against him. They don't even call him "Governor" Corzine these days; it's "Wall Street Businessman."

At the same time, the Dems are going out of their way to also call him a businessman, saying they need someone who understands business in office these days and that Christie's corruption fighting (which they're already tarnishing as a giant fraud) doesn't matter to the voters these days. In fact, it never truly matters to these people. They bitch about corruption and then, when push comes to shove, they re-elect their leaders. The hilarious part is how the NJ Dems are basically coming out and saying, "Folks, listen, we know you don't really care about corruption so we're going to say it. We know that you especially don't care about it in the midst of an economic crisis."

In the end, I think the latter message will win.

[Vepres]

I'm not very familiar with New Jersey politics, but most of you seem to be way too pessimistic.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not very familiar with New Jersey politics, but most of you seem to be way too pessimistic.

The first half of your sentence explains why the second half is silly. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

I have been thinking about this at length and Republicans polling well at this time usually turns because:

1.) leads are small (3-5 pts on average)
2.) undecideds are very, very high (R near 42-44%)
3.) Democratic base comes home

While number 3 is certainly possible with Corzine registering only around 80% Dem support, the other two are not.  Christie's leads usually are around double digits and he usually breaks 50%.

Are we to believe this is for real?

First, Christie has generally performed better in surveys than in the actual election.  Before the primary farleight Dickson had him up by 24 points (Quinnipiac said 23) while he actually won by 13 (because he had support from the Republican organization and preferential ballot status).

Second, what is this lionizing of Christie?  I understand you want to get rid of Corzine but, Christie's not much different.  Would you support Corzine if he changed parties?

Third, if Christie goes into hiding and the focus is on the economy and Corzine, then by default, Christie will win. 

[Rowan]

I think you're generalizing a bit based off one poll. Rasmussen had him winning the primary by 11 and he won by 13, whats your point?

[DemocratsVictory2008]

I think Christie's the favorite but anything can happen. He prolly wins by 3-5 pts not 12

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think you're generalizing a bit based off one poll. Rasmussen had him winning the primary by 11 and he won by 13, whats your point?

Please reread, I cited TWO polls.

Why the worship for Christie?   You remind me of some the the Dems who were worshippping Obama this time last year.

[Meeker]

I will concede that Christie has a better chance at winning than any Republican in quite a while. I'm willing to admit that he could win.

However, I remain convinced that Corzine and the New Jersey Democratic Party are much better at winning elections than their counterparts, so let's see what ends up happening in the fall.