State trends...
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the artist formerly known as catmusic
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« on: July 06, 2009, 11:59:54 PM »
« edited: July 07, 2009, 01:50:58 AM by Calvin & Hobbes »

Here is what the map would look like if each state voted for the party it has voted for the most (ex. Washington has voted for democrats more than republicans):



Interesting map, isn't it?
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2009, 02:02:15 AM »

Pretty interesting, some notable recent pairs break like WA-OR, AL-MS.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2009, 04:38:34 AM »

Pretty interesting, some notable recent pairs break like WA-OR, AL-MS.

And above all MA-RI.
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the artist formerly known as catmusic
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2009, 05:04:53 AM »

What I find interesting and funny is that the map is practically flipped from what it is now. Demmy in the south, Republican in the north.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2009, 05:07:20 AM »

What I find interesting and funny is that the map is practically flipped from what it is now. Demmy in the south, Republican in the north.

That's not so surprising considering the past of the two parties and how their ideologies totally flipped from 1860 to 1960.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2009, 10:27:12 PM »

not all that surprising considering the current coalitions have only existed since the 1960's and the Dems and Reps have been going at it for over 150 years.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2009, 09:45:30 AM »



I think this a better understanding of the current coalitions since 1960
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2009, 09:46:49 AM »



I think this a better understanding of the current coalitions since 1960

Ohio a democratic state ? Huh Huh Huh
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2009, 09:51:21 AM »

I didn't say it was a democratic state along with New Hamsphire its part of the blue firewall since 1960.  LBJ, Carter, and Clinton won Ohio convincingly.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2009, 09:56:07 AM »

I didn't say it was a democratic state along with New Hamsphire its part of the blue firewall since 1960.  LBJ, Carter, and Clinton won Ohio convincingly.

But Carter, Clinton and Obama always won it by a smaller margin that the nation. Ohio is a state that has always been more republican that the average ( except three times, in 1964, 1972 and 2004 ).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2009, 10:00:57 AM »

At any rate, I was trying to prove under the current coalition, only West Virginia a southern state has trended more democratic than the rest of the South.
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Husker
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« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2009, 07:28:47 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2009, 07:30:19 PM by Husker »



I made this map a few months ago so I don't recall the exact percentages that correspond to the colors. At any rate, this is the change in the republican share of the vote in Nebraska since 1960. Suffice to say that the darker the red, the greater the decrease was from Nixon to McCain. For example, Nixon got 62.6% of the vote in 1960 in Lancaster County vs. 46.6% for John McCain in 2008.

There is a strong correlation (but not 1:1) here between population growth since 1960 and decreasing share of republican vote. With a few exceptions, most of the places that have become more democratic  have seen population increases, while those that have lost people, have become more republican. Many counties in western and central NE had fewer votes cast in 2008 than in 1960.

I'm certainly interested in how other states have changed since 1960 and might do so if I have more time....
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the artist formerly known as catmusic
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« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2009, 07:31:35 PM »



I think this a better understanding of the current coalitions since 1960

No. Actually you are wrong. And my calculations were from the first election. Wink
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Husker
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« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2009, 08:22:35 PM »

Here are the Top 10 democratic and republican states in every 4th election starting in 1960. Darkest shade of red and blue indicates most democrat and republican state respectively

1960:


1976:


1992:


2008:



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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2009, 08:40:01 AM »



I made this map a few months ago so I don't recall the exact percentages that correspond to the colors. At any rate, this is the change in the republican share of the vote in Nebraska since 1960. Suffice to say that the darker the red, the greater the decrease was from Nixon to McCain. For example, Nixon got 62.6% of the vote in 1960 in Lancaster County vs. 46.6% for John McCain in 2008.

There is a strong correlation (but not 1:1) here between population growth since 1960 and decreasing share of republican vote. With a few exceptions, most of the places that have become more democratic  have seen population increases, while those that have lost people, have become more republican. Many counties in western and central NE had fewer votes cast in 2008 than in 1960.

I'm certainly interested in how other states have changed since 1960 and might do so if I have more time....

Very interesting map. Wink Also to note that the same trend for Nebraska seem valid for the whole nation : the States whose population is growing rapidly are also those where democrats are doing better and better ( VA, NC, FL, TX, CO, AZ, NV, WA, OR ), whereas those that are growing very slowly are also getting more republican ( MA, RI, NY, PA... ).
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DS0816
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2009, 02:47:23 PM »

I would take the top five bellwether states—alphabetically, they are: Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio—and turn them gray (or purple). You can take more risks with others that have been fairly good at siding with the winner: Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee.
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Derek
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2010, 01:23:20 PM »

http://


Here seems to be the trends of our country. The darker the blue, the more conservative they're becoming and the darker red, the moer liberal they're becoming.

2000's- New GOP States- WV, KY, TN, MO, AR, LA
            New Liberal States- OR, NJ, ME, MI, WA
            New Battleground States- VA, NC, IN, CO, MN, WI

1990's- New GOP States- TX, AL, MS, GA, SC, NC
            New Liberal States- CA, IL, CT, VT, DE
            New Battleground States- FL, AZ
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