Two Very Unlikely 2012 Maps...But...

[JSojourner]

...can you project circumstances (candidates, national or international conditions, economy, etc) under which you could see each being true?

MAP ONE

MAP TWO

MAP THREE

[JSojourner]

Actually, three maps...just added the last one.  Sorry for the mis-title.

[tmthforu94]

Map 1 & 3 are worst case for Obama. The economy is still in the tanks, and we are in a war with Iran and North Korea. Map One is with Sarah Palin as the nominee, while Map Three is with Romney.
In Map 2, everything goes well. The economy has rebounded, and our nations defict has been drastically reduced. We signed in an alliance with Russia and China, and we have sucessfully defeated Osama Bin Laden. However, taxes have increased, preventing Obama from winning all 50 states.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Map 2 - 

-the economy roars back to life
-Romney and HUckabee chicken out of facing Obama
-Sarah Palin then wins the nomination. 
-To counter the excitement among women, Obama replaces Biden with Hillary.
-A Palin scandal erupts in September or October.
 

Really? As far as I know, in 2008 women were not that "excited" about Palin, and Obama removing Biden would probably damage his campaign.

[Vepres]

Map 1
- A midwesterner such as Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels heads the ticket, VP is probably a moderate.
- Economy rebounded at some point, only to slump again in late 2011 or so, though it isn't as bad as the late-2008 crash.
- Health care reform failed to pass or was so watered down to win the support of Republicans and moderate Democrats that it doesn't do much.
- Foreign policy is successful, but goes largely unnoticed.
- Blacks and youth become very cynical due to Obama's failures, the turnout of both groups is depressed, and the youth vote only 3-7 points more for Obama than the popular vote.


Map 2
- Palin is the nominee.
- Economy is strong.
- Foreign policy is a success. One or both of North Korea or Iran are no longer threats due to skillful diplomacy.
- Palin is hit by a scandal late in the election that makes social conservatives really mad.


Map 3
- A northeasterner is the nominee, likely Romney, who returns to his socially moderate roots.
- Economy never fully recovered, and a few minor crashes occur between now and election night.
- Diplomacy proves unsuccessful for both North Korea and Iran, Afghanistan shows no improvement despite the surge.
- Black turnout is significantly depressed, and the youth turn out in high numbers, but this time they favor Republicans, as they've become very cynical.
- Suburbs are strongly Republican again, and Republicans are competitive in some big cities as well.
- Obama is viewed by the public as a nice, likable guy who was far too ambitious and idealistic to be President.

[J. J.]

Map 2 - 

-the economy roars back to life
-Romney and HUckabee chicken out of facing Obama
-Sarah Palin then wins the nomination. 
-To counter the excitement among women, Obama replaces Biden with Hillary.
-A Palin scandal erupts in September or October.
 

Really? As far as I know, in 2008 women were not that "excited" about Palin, and Obama removing Biden would probably damage his campaign.

Slight disagreement on the first, major on the second.  Obama could have a lot done better.

[J. J.]

Map 1 is basically Obama does as well as GHW Bush, not bad, but not outstanding.  An aggressive GOP nominee that catches fire steps up (Romney catches fire)

Map 3 is Carter II.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Map 1 is basically Obama does as well as GHW Bush, not bad, but not outstanding.  An aggressive GOP nominee that catches fire steps up (Romney catches fire)

The only thing on Romney that could catch fire is his plastic smile.

Slight disagreement on the first...

Reading polls is hard, huh?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

MAP 3: Jesus is the GOP candidate with a ressurected Reagan as his running mate. Obama has failed to do everything he promised, there's a new great depression, and Obama is involved in several coruption/sex scandals.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Map 2 - 

-the economy roars back to life
-Romney and HUckabee chicken out of facing Obama
-Sarah Palin then wins the nomination. 
-To counter the excitement among women, Obama replaces Biden with Hillary.
-A Palin scandal erupts in September or October.
 

Really? As far as I know, in 2008 women were not that "excited" about Palin, and Obama removing Biden would probably damage his campaign.

Slight disagreement on the first, major on the second.  Obama could have a lot done better.

Women were not that excited about Palin but there'd be a different vibe with a woman presidential nominee than vice-presidential.  No one has been more insistent than me that Biden will not be replaced but I've started to reconsider in the last 24 hours with Obama increasingly having to walk back things that come out of Biden's mouth.  He may be fed up if it continues for 3 years.  If Biden "retired", Obama would probably feel strong pressure to pick a woman VP.  Especially with a woman presidential nominee for the GOP.  Potentially, he's gotten used to working with Hillary and would pick her.  I still think it's unlikely Biden is replaced, but doing so wouldn't destroy Obama's campaign in any way.  Hillary would give him a better map.

I don't know what will happen with the economy.  If it should come back strong in the next 18 months, I think Romney and Huckabee will skip the race rather than head into a very likely loss to Obama.

Republican women were.

[JSojourner]

This is what I had in mind, but I have to say I am quite impressed with the possible scenarios presented by most of the contributors thus far.  Nice.


Map one

Willard Mitt Romney is the nominee.  He has a respectable and conservative midwestern running mate.  The economy may or may not rebound in some areas but the automotive industry is utterly kaput.  Two, or even all, of the big three go totally bust and every federal effort to save them fails.  A couple of the foreign carmakers also close stateside plants and idle workers. Democrats are unsuccessful at deflecting blame for the disaster.  Foreign/military policy is the same as now or slightly better.  No scandals in either camp.  Both candidates acquit themselves well in debate.

Map two

Obama is a resounding success.  Though the Presidential nominee may or may not be embroiled in scandal under this scenario, the GOP dominos continue to fall.  Sex and money scandals continue to plague mostly Republican Governors, Mayors, Senators and Representatives.  One or more conservative talking heads (of the Limbaugh or Hannity tribe) crack wise about wanting to resurrect either the KKK or the ghost of Lee Harvey Oswald.  To distance themselves from the hate, even some conservative Republicans condemn them and, without endorsing, make it clear that they can afford to sit it out for at least four more.  I think this map would probably mean a particularly dim bulb like Sarah Palin, John Thune or some other sacrificial lamb on the GOP side.

(I do consider this an exceedingly unlikely scenario.)

Map Three

There is a major scandal tainting Barack Obama and at least one other member of his family or cabinet, be it Michelle, Biden or someone else.  I'm not talking about a gaffe, I am talking about theft, malfeasance, or a particularly egregious sex scandal.    Otherwise, this map does not happen unless there is another major terrorist attack and Obama's response to it is to apologize to the terrorists and call for a roundtable discussion to "understand" our enemies' grievances.  I am sure a Republican could defeat Obama with a bad economy alone.  But not nearly to this extent.  Given the above scenario, I could see any intelligent Republican (Romney, Pawlenty, Ridge, Jindal) or any reasonably charismatic Republican (Huckabee, Pence, etc.) winning.

[pbrower2a]

Map #1:


1. The Obama Administration has bungled the response to North Korea to the extent that the United States is in a stalemate in North Korea because he chose to act without the implicit backing of either Russia or China.

2. The economy is sputtering along, the Democratic Party has split into two factions -- those who think that he is going too fast and those tho think that he is going too slow, and those two factions can't unify. The Republicans have somehow come up with a surprisingly strong candidate analogous to Bill Clinton -- someone completely out of the blue. Some left-wing populist may have challenged Obama for the votes of those who think that Obama hasn't been radical enough.

3. Barack Obama has been disclosed to have participated in a tryst with some woman who uses a sunscreen with a moderate-to-high SPF.


Map #2:

The economy is going as well as anyone can reasonably expect -- no boom, but in the right direction. We have a viable system of national health care.  Russia, China, and the United States have agreed on a formal treaty bringing an official end to the Korean Conflict -- a treaty that has signatures of the government of a re-unified Republic of Korea or the ROK and a puppet state of China or Russia (the puppet has no connection to Kim Jong-il who has either died, is imprisoned for life, or is incarcerated as "innocent by reason of insanity"). The Iranian government is no longer an anti-American theocracy.

The GOP runs someone whose greatest qualification is "long and distinguished service to the Party" after a stalemate between Huckabee and Romney in choosing a compromise -- or someone that the Obama campaign can easily portray as a nutcase. Obama wins enough "poor white" votes who typically voted for Clinton (although I would expect Tennessee to go for Obama before Mississippi).

Map #3:

1. Kim Jong-il has nuked Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles; Ahmedinedjad has nuked Israel. 

2. The American economy has undergone a new 2008-style or 1929-style economic meltdown.

3.  A mass conversion of tens of millions of Americans to right-wing, fundamentalist Christianity has taken place, and with that mass conversion has come political conversion.