September Jos Reports

[khirkhib]

They are in and the great USA has 96000 additional non-farm jobs for the month of September.  Walling about 50000 short of the 148000 projected estimate.  Job creation for August was lowered from 144000 down to 128000.

And I know your going to say that it was the Hurricanes but the Labor Department says that they had a minimum effect.   So it is official Bush is the second President in the Histroy of the USA to have a net loss of jobs, 821,000 down.

I would really love to see that nifty grafic that you had on job creation vorlon.  The final adjustment and see if Bush is above or below the re-election line.

Unemployment is still very low however 5.4% which is somewhat odd because job creation isn't keeping up with population growth.  If this doesn't make it completely clear to everyone that the employment rate doesn't reflect many people that are out of work and are looking for work I don't know what will.

[J. J.]

The population is aging; a lot of people are leaving the workforce (retirement and deaths).  The entire low job growth might be due to demographic changes. 

[khirkhib]

The Population is growing.   We aren't in europe we aren't even close to that demographic model more people are entering into the workplace (or trying to) than are leaving it.  96000 doesn't keep up with the monthly increase of people that are eligible to work. 

And I Understand that you like to keep a tidy forum Dave but you moving around topics is infuriating.  The Job reports were always in the US Presidential Campaign forum every month that Bush was doing good and you move this one.  I know I'm paranoid but sometimes it seems like you move certain discussions to take them off the table.

[J. J.]

The population is growing, but also aging.  There might be fewer jobs, but also fewer workers on employment age.  The baby boomers are entering into retirement.

[The Duke]

Payroll jobs report is down, but unemployment stays steady, and population trends can't be blamed.

Hmmm...

...COULD IT BE THAT EVERYTHING I'VE SAID FOR MONTHS NOW ABOUT SHIFTS IN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AWAY FROM LARGE EMPLOYERS TO SMALL BUSINESS AND THE SELF EMPLOYED WAS TRUE, THAT THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY IS THE ONLY SURVEY THAT NOW MATTERS, AND THAT EVERYTHING THE KERRY PEOPLE ARE SAYING IS CRAP!!!!!

Well, maybe.

[khirkhib]

This supports some of your claims but shows that the crunch shouldn't happen until 2012.


http://www.microsoft.com/enable/aging/demographics.aspx


http://www.nowcc.org/issues/report.html

This is interesting too.   But however you spin it  96000 is dismal.

Year         Population           Difference     Av. Inc/Month
1930       122,775,046
1940       131,669,275      8,894,229        74,118
1950       151,330,000    19,660,725      163,839 (retiring)
1960       179,322,000    27,992,000      233,266
1970       203,302,031    23,970,031      199,750
1980       226,545,805    23,243,774      193,698 (entering)
1990       248,765,170    22,219,365      185,161    
2000       267,636,061    18,870,891      157,257

So the boom was definately a big increase but I think more women in Gen X are entering into the workplace than then and the average retirement age is being pused up to 65 which means that it is still those born between 1940 and 1950 that are retiring and that decade had a montly increase of 30000 less than the people that are currently entering into employment.  I'm not saying it won't become a problem but I really don't think that  retirement is a good excuse for the lack of job creation.

[khirkhib]

NO John Ford e-bay is not a major employer.  I think the unemployment rate does not reflect the reality of unemployment in this country because it does not include many people that are unemployed that are looking for work.  I am unemployed but I'm not collecting unemployment benefits.  Plenty of people that have been looking for work are no longer counted and many people that would have entered the market are waiting.

[A18]

What does this have to do with anything?

[??????????]

You forgot about Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

[The Duke]

NO John Ford e-bay is not a major employer.  I think the unemployment rate does not reflect the reality of unemployment in this country because it does not include many people that are unemployed that are looking for work.  I am unemployed but I'm not collecting unemployment benefits.  Plenty of people that have been looking for work are no longer counted and many people that would have entered the market are waiting.

I made no specific mention of ebay, only that more poeple than before are employed by small businesses or are self employed.  Employment levels at ebay are irrelevant to this point, since it is meant ot be general, not specific.

Rather than exclude those who don't have work but are looking, the unemployment rate ONLY calcualtes those people.  It is not based on how many people are recieveing unemployment benefits, either.  The rate is caalculated by the Labor Department's household employment survey.

[Dave from Michigan]

is the household survey more accurate than the payroll survey

[The Duke]

is the household survey more accurate than the payroll survey

They don't measure the same thing.

[opebo]

The jobs number is dissappointing, and is at least a talking point for Kerry.

I think however that it doesn't make much difference in the election as the issue that motivates Kerry voters is the very low quality of jobs available nowadays.  Kerry should focus less quantitative job numbers and more on the low wages issue. 

[khirkhib]

I specifically did mention the Hurricanes and the Department of Labor said that they did not have an effect on the low number of jobs that were created.

And I used E-bay as an example because that is the Job that Cheney used in a speech to explain why he thought the job creation numbers were inaccurate.

You guys are going to be so much happier when you no longer have to apologize and excuse everything away for the President.  Sometimes I think that Bush and the neo-cons should keep control of the house and senate just so that you see, really with out an excuse how their economic plan is hurting the country.  But lo I can not because I LOVE this country and I don't want it to suffer under this regime any longer.

The only people that I know, personally, that are voting for Bush at this points are the ultra-left wackjobs that want to see the policies of Bush get more militant and that the tree of liberty can get fertilized.

[??????????]

I specifically did mention the Hurricanes and the Department of Labor said that they did not have an effect on the low number of jobs that were created.

And I used E-bay as an example because that is the Job that Cheney used in a speech to explain why he thought the job creation numbers were inaccurate.

You guys are going to be so much happier when you no longer have to apologize and excuse everything away for the President.  Sometimes I think that Bush and the neo-cons should keep control of the house and senate just so that you see, really with out an excuse how their economic plan is hurting the country.  But lo I can not because I LOVE this country and I don't want it to suffer under this regime any longer.

The only people that I know, personally, that are voting for Bush at this points are the ultra-left wackjobs that want to see the policies of Bush get more militant and that the tree of liberty can get fertilized.

Yes, four devastating hurricanes have no effect. Get real. I would love to see Kerry get his one term so he can raise our taxes. Because liberals don't give three craps about the working man. The only thing they care about is our money.

[khirkhib]

I thought some of the apologists might like this one.