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Princess Kenny
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« on: July 11, 2009, 07:08:02 pm »
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Who do you think are the most vunerable Democratic and Republican Senators/Congressman in 2010?

My opinion:

GOP:

Sen. Jim Bunning (KY) - we all know why Cheesy
Sen. David Vitter (LA), the same situation
Sen. Richard Burr (NC), because of the "cursed seat"
Rep. Joseph Cao (LA) - won in a very Democratic district only becuase of Bill Jefferson

Dem:

Sen. Christopher Dodd (CT)
Rep. Walt Minnick (ID), because it's Idaho, babe

Regarding primary:

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), otherwise I think she'll win
Sen. Arlen Specter (PN), the same sitation


Also. most vuneralbe Governors:

IMHO:
Democratic: David Paterson (NY)
Republican: Jan Brewer (AZ)
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2009, 03:22:44 pm »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2009, 04:39:20 pm »
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It's hard to pick out who's most vulnerable in the House because redistricting dictated the open seats, the GOP senators who were vulnerable to being redistricting took a pass and went to the Senate races or the Gubernatorial races.

I would love to see Sestak and Maloney win their respective primaries.

Spector should of became an independent and ran as that, not switched parties.
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2009, 07:44:46 pm »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd

If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2009, 07:52:22 pm »
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Cao is the only really vulnerable GOP incumbent in the House right now. There are a few that might become so, if good opponents pop up -- Lee Terry, Dave Reichert, Dan Lundgren and of course Michele Bachmann.

For the Dems, there are a few categories. There are the incumbents in hostile districts -- Bobby Bright, Walt Minnick, and Frank Kratovil. And then there are the incumbents facing off against the Reps they defeated -- Steve Driehaus and Harry Teague. There are a lot of potentially-vulnerable seats, including most of the rest of the 2008 seat-pickup freshmen.

In the Senate, the only really vulnerable incumbents right now are Dodd and Bunning. Bennet, Specter, Vitter and Burr are potentially vulnerable, depending on how the races play out.
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2009, 09:21:35 am »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd

If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.

It has nothing to do with good years or bad years. Look at her approval rating. It is lowered with every passing election. Look at her opponent. He ran as an independent last year and got 19% of the vote, while she was reelected with 44%.

The democrats in this district are the democrats that didn't even turn out for Obama like others. They're old school Dems that think it's still the party of FDR. There are also next to no blacks. This simply means 2006 and especially 2008 were not that democratic in this district.

Everyone knows that there are not alot of dems in Oh-2, that's why people need to read the platform of David Krikorian, her opponent. All he has got to do is get his message out to the voters and he will win, it will be ugly for Schmidt. He is everything moderates and the conservative, older generation democrats of Oh-2 could dream of.
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2009, 10:51:28 am »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd

If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.

It has nothing to do with good years or bad years. Look at her approval rating. It is lowered with every passing election. Look at her opponent. He ran as an independent last year and got 19% of the vote, while she was reelected with 44%.

The democrats in this district are the democrats that didn't even turn out for Obama like others. They're old school Dems that think it's still the party of FDR. There are also next to no blacks. This simply means 2006 and especially 2008 were not that democratic in this district.

Everyone knows that there are not alot of dems in Oh-2, that's why people need to read the platform of David Krikorian, her opponent. All he has got to do is get his message out to the voters and he will win, it will be ugly for Schmidt. He is everything moderates and the conservative, older generation democrats of Oh-2 could dream of.

I don't think she's vulnerable, I just think you hate her so much that you've made it to the point where you think she'd lose.

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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2009, 12:02:08 pm »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd

If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.

It has nothing to do with good years or bad years. Look at her approval rating. It is lowered with every passing election. Look at her opponent. He ran as an independent last year and got 19% of the vote, while she was reelected with 44%.

The democrats in this district are the democrats that didn't even turn out for Obama like others. They're old school Dems that think it's still the party of FDR. There are also next to no blacks. This simply means 2006 and especially 2008 were not that democratic in this district.

Everyone knows that there are not alot of dems in Oh-2, that's why people need to read the platform of David Krikorian, her opponent. All he has got to do is get his message out to the voters and he will win, it will be ugly for Schmidt. He is everything moderates and the conservative, older generation democrats of Oh-2 could dream of.

I don't think she's vulnerable, I just think you hate her so much that you've made it to the point where you think she'd lose.



And you have nothing to back up your claim that she is safe. Other than the fact that the electorate will trend GOP in 2010. You clearly know nothing about Oh-2. It can't get anymore Republican than it is. It does nothing for me to argue with you people- just wait and see.
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2009, 06:39:47 pm »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd

If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.

It has nothing to do with good years or bad years. Look at her approval rating. It is lowered with every passing election. Look at her opponent. He ran as an independent last year and got 19% of the vote, while she was reelected with 44%.

The democrats in this district are the democrats that didn't even turn out for Obama like others. They're old school Dems that think it's still the party of FDR. There are also next to no blacks. This simply means 2006 and especially 2008 were not that democratic in this district.

Everyone knows that there are not alot of dems in Oh-2, that's why people need to read the platform of David Krikorian, her opponent. All he has got to do is get his message out to the voters and he will win, it will be ugly for Schmidt. He is everything moderates and the conservative, older generation democrats of Oh-2 could dream of.

I don't think she's vulnerable, I just think you hate her so much that you've made it to the point where you think she'd lose.



And you have nothing to back up your claim that she is safe. Other than the fact that the electorate will trend GOP in 2010. You clearly know nothing about Oh-2. It can't get anymore Republican than it is. It does nothing for me to argue with you people- just wait and see.

IF thise Dems didn;t come out in 2006 with a GOP Governor with an appoval rating of 18% and National image that was in the sewer in terms of popularity, and didn't turn out in 2008 with the economy crashing and McCain campaign collapsing I find it hard to find a scenario in which these old school Dems turn out in 2010. If anything GOP turnout will get a bump from having native son and former Congressmen Rob Portman running for Senate, Portman usually overperformed there getting numbers in the 70's. So he is relatively well like by a large number of people there.

To say any district can't get more Republican in 2010 compared to the result in 2008 is a bold predicion. You are basically saying that 2010 will definately lean Dem by 7 points or more. Even it the Dems win the Generic Ballot by 2 or 3 thats still a Republican tend of 4 or 5 points from 2008 and it would be first felt in Districts like OH-02 that are already heavily Republican(The first part of the trend usually means high turnout of one party compared to the other, beyond that point you get to indies starting to swing away). I will remind you that as of now according to Rasmussen the Republicans lead the Generic ballot by 4 meaning a trend of 11 points towards the GOP from last year. Granted that can be wrong of course and its also very early. Also Obama's approval rating, should it decrease to 51% statewide, means he will likely be well below 50% in OH-02 based on Partisanship of the District.  Also add in the incumbency factor. Its not impossible but there are several things standing in the way of a Dem pickup here.
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« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2009, 02:21:38 am »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd

If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.

It has nothing to do with good years or bad years. Look at her approval rating. It is lowered with every passing election. Look at her opponent. He ran as an independent last year and got 19% of the vote, while she was reelected with 44%.

The democrats in this district are the democrats that didn't even turn out for Obama like others. They're old school Dems that think it's still the party of FDR. There are also next to no blacks. This simply means 2006 and especially 2008 were not that democratic in this district.

Everyone knows that there are not alot of dems in Oh-2, that's why people need to read the platform of David Krikorian, her opponent. All he has got to do is get his message out to the voters and he will win, it will be ugly for Schmidt. He is everything moderates and the conservative, older generation democrats of Oh-2 could dream of.

I don't think she's vulnerable, I just think you hate her so much that you've made it to the point where you think she'd lose.



And you have nothing to back up your claim that she is safe. Other than the fact that the electorate will trend GOP in 2010. You clearly know nothing about Oh-2. It can't get anymore Republican than it is. It does nothing for me to argue with you people- just wait and see.

When you pick up 55 seats over two cycles, it's hard to have one available that you didn't already get.
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2009, 02:27:00 am »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2009, 02:34:47 am »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2009, 02:37:12 am »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.

Oh.  Kinda like the 1920 presidential election in NYC?  Harding actually won.
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« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2009, 02:40:19 am »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.

Oh.  Kinda like the 1920 presidential election in NYC?  Harding actually won.

     I am not too familiar with that example, though I think Coolidge also won NYC in 1924.
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2009, 06:04:11 am »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.

Oh.  Kinda like the 1920 presidential election in NYC?  Harding actually won.

Or the Rostenkowski-Flanagan election in 1994. Cao was also helped by low turnout, as the election was held a month after the general, due to a hurricane delaying the primary. About 65,000 people voted, which is slightly less than the number that voted in the Democratic primary held in October, and nearly a third of the 160,000+ who voted in the primary that was held during the general election. Had the general election been held in November, Jefferson would have slimed his way back into office.
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2009, 06:09:05 am »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.

Oh.  Kinda like the 1920 presidential election in NYC?  Harding actually won.

Or the Rostenkowski-Flanagan election in 1994. Cao was also helped by low turnout, as the election was held a month after the general, due to a hurricane delaying the primary. About 65,000 people voted, which is slightly less than the number that voted in the Democratic primary held in October, and nearly a third of the 160,000+ who voted in the primary that was held during the general election. Had the general election been held in November, Jefferson would have slimed his way back into office.

Good.  Glad he didn't.
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Princess Kenny
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« Reply #16 on: July 22, 2009, 07:04:49 am »
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Not so bad. I thins Cao would be voted out eaisly in 2010 against nearly any other Democrat

And Jefferson is gone anyway.
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« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2009, 01:56:58 pm »
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Reid and Specter are the most I predict now, they aren't really Dems they are DINO dem, democrats in name only.  Specter is a turncoat Tom Ridge republican.
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« Reply #18 on: July 22, 2009, 05:28:33 pm »
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Jean Schmidt &Chris Dodd

If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.

It has nothing to do with good years or bad years. Look at her approval rating. It is lowered with every passing election. Look at her opponent. He ran as an independent last year and got 19% of the vote, while she was reelected with 44%.

The democrats in this district are the democrats that didn't even turn out for Obama like others. They're old school Dems that think it's still the party of FDR. There are also next to no blacks. This simply means 2006 and especially 2008 were not that democratic in this district.

Everyone knows that there are not alot of dems in Oh-2, that's why people need to read the platform of David Krikorian, her opponent. All he has got to do is get his message out to the voters and he will win, it will be ugly for Schmidt. He is everything moderates and the conservative, older generation democrats of Oh-2 could dream of.

I don't think she's vulnerable, I just think you hate her so much that you've made it to the point where you think she'd lose.



And you have nothing to back up your claim that she is safe. Other than the fact that the electorate will trend GOP in 2010. You clearly know nothing about Oh-2. It can't get anymore Republican than it is. It does nothing for me to argue with you people- just wait and see.

IF thise Dems didn;t come out in 2006 with a GOP Governor with an appoval rating of 18% and National image that was in the sewer in terms of popularity, and didn't turn out in 2008 with the economy crashing and McCain campaign collapsing I find it hard to find a scenario in which these old school Dems turn out in 2010. If anything GOP turnout will get a bump from having native son and former Congressmen Rob Portman running for Senate, Portman usually overperformed there getting numbers in the 70's. So he is relatively well like by a large number of people there.

To say any district can't get more Republican in 2010 compared to the result in 2008 is a bold predicion. You are basically saying that 2010 will definately lean Dem by 7 points or more. Even it the Dems win the Generic Ballot by 2 or 3 thats still a Republican tend of 4 or 5 points from 2008 and it would be first felt in Districts like OH-02 that are already heavily Republican(The first part of the trend usually means high turnout of one party compared to the other, beyond that point you get to indies starting to swing away). I will remind you that as of now according to Rasmussen the Republicans lead the Generic ballot by 4 meaning a trend of 11 points towards the GOP from last year. Granted that can be wrong of course and its also very early. Also Obama's approval rating, should it decrease to 51% statewide, means he will likely be well below 50% in OH-02 based on Partisanship of the District.  Also add in the incumbency factor. Its not impossible but there are several things standing in the way of a Dem pickup here.

You know, as much as I think this guy's optimism for taking out Schmidt is misplaced, his comments have given me pause for thought. He's right that Schmidt won reelection with only 44% of the vote, and the guy running for the Democratic nomination he refers to won an impressive 19% as an independent. I believe that 95+% of those who voted for the liberal Democratic nominee in 08 would vote for a puddle of mud running against Schmidt. How much of that 19% would this guy lose just by running as a Democrat 2 years later? Some to be sure, but.....

I agree with the analysis this is a tough race, but maybe a real sleeper?
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2009, 01:08:47 pm »
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My optimism may be slanted, but I've given up, simple because most of those arguing here don't understand how schmidt is seen in the district. We'll see come 2010. First he has to win the Primary... that will be more difficult than winning the election.
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2009, 02:29:21 pm »
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My optimism may be slanted, but I've given up, simple because most of those arguing here don't understand how schmidt is seen in the district. We'll see come 2010. First he has to win the Primary... that will be more difficult than winning the election.
Who is his opposition and what are their respective chances? Is Wuslin going to try again?
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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2009, 06:36:29 pm »
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My optimism may be slanted, but I've given up, simple because most of those arguing here don't understand how schmidt is seen in the district. We'll see come 2010. First he has to win the Primary... that will be more difficult than winning the election.
Who is his opposition and what are their respective chances? Is Wuslin going to try again?

No, Wulsin has endorsed him- the guy running is a state rep by the name of Tom Book. He is in Portsmouth- 2 hours from the heart of the district. But Book does have the the backing of Governor Strickland... It should be interesting. But I think if David can get the name recognition and backing of the party.. he will crush Jean.
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« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2009, 08:27:14 pm »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.

Oh.  Kinda like the 1920 presidential election in NYC?  Harding actually won.

     I am not too familiar with that example, though I think Coolidge also won NYC in 1924.

Another interesting feat-  Guess who the last Republican Pres to win the City of Philadelphia was in what year?  The answer blew my mind.
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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2009, 09:29:04 pm »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.

Oh.  Kinda like the 1920 presidential election in NYC?  Harding actually won.

     I am not too familiar with that example, though I think Coolidge also won NYC in 1924.

Another interesting feat-  Guess who the last Republican Pres to win the City of Philadelphia was in what year?  The answer blew my mind.

1932?
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« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2009, 10:41:15 pm »
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How the HELL did Cao get elected?  LA-02 has a CPVI of D+25!  I'm not saying I'm not happy about it but I was just wondering.

     Because the Democrats ultimately refused to vote to re-elect their ultra-corrupt representative yet again.

Oh.  Kinda like the 1920 presidential election in NYC?  Harding actually won.

     I am not too familiar with that example, though I think Coolidge also won NYC in 1924.

Another interesting feat-  Guess who the last Republican Pres to win the City of Philadelphia was in what year?  The answer blew my mind.

1932?

Yep.  Herbert Hoover won the city, but FDR won in 1936.  Philadelphia and Pittsburgh still had the best GOP organizations in the country at that time.
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