If Mean Jean couldn't be taken down in 2006 and 2008, two good years for the Democrats, I don't think she'll be very vulnerable in 2010, which I'm sure will be a more favorable year to the Republicans nationwide, including Ohio where Obama's approval ratings are staggering.
It has nothing to do with good years or bad years. Look at her approval rating. It is lowered with every passing election. Look at her opponent. He ran as an independent last year and got 19% of the vote, while she was reelected with 44%.
The democrats in this district are the democrats that didn't even turn out for Obama like others. They're old school Dems that think it's still the party of FDR. There are also next to no blacks. This simply means 2006 and especially 2008 were not that democratic in this district.
Everyone knows that there are not alot of dems in Oh-2, that's why people need to read the platform of David Krikorian, her opponent. All he has got to do is get his message out to the voters and he will win, it will be ugly for Schmidt. He is everything moderates and the conservative, older generation democrats of Oh-2 could dream of.
I don't think she's vulnerable, I just think you hate her so much that you've made it to the point where you think she'd lose.
And you have nothing to back up your claim that she is safe. Other than the fact that the electorate will trend GOP in 2010. You clearly know nothing about Oh-2. It can't get anymore Republican than it is. It does nothing for me to argue with you people- just wait and see.
IF thise Dems didn;t come out in 2006 with a GOP Governor with an appoval rating of 18% and National image that was in the sewer in terms of popularity, and didn't turn out in 2008 with the economy crashing and McCain campaign collapsing I find it hard to find a scenario in which these old school Dems turn out in 2010. If anything GOP turnout will get a bump from having native son and former Congressmen Rob Portman running for Senate, Portman usually overperformed there getting numbers in the 70's. So he is relatively well like by a large number of people there.
To say any district can't get more Republican in 2010 compared to the result in 2008 is a bold predicion. You are basically saying that 2010 will definately lean Dem by 7 points or more. Even it the Dems win the Generic Ballot by 2 or 3 thats still a Republican tend of 4 or 5 points from 2008 and it would be first felt in Districts like OH-02 that are already heavily Republican(The first part of the trend usually means high turnout of one party compared to the other, beyond that point you get to indies starting to swing away). I will remind you that as of now according to Rasmussen the Republicans lead the Generic ballot by 4 meaning a trend of 11 points towards the GOP from last year. Granted that can be wrong of course and its also very early. Also Obama's approval rating, should it decrease to 51% statewide, means he will likely be well below 50% in OH-02 based on Partisanship of the District. Also add in the incumbency factor. Its not impossible but there are several things standing in the way of a Dem pickup here.
