2040 electoral map

[Türkisblau]

What in the name of God is this thing this that you've revived here. How far into the depths of hell did you go to recover this.

It was on the "Who's online?" section so I clicked on it. Blame "Guest".

Personally, I plan on being a representative for 3 terms, serve 2 terms as governor and then be elected President. Maybe go into the House afterwards like John Quincy Adams?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I did this map sometimes ago, representing the Electoral College structure in the 2030-2040 years. The shades doesn't indicate percentages, but the closeness of the state ( light=leaning, average=solid, dark=safe ). This map is in a situation of toss-up election, so you should correct it if you plan to make it a democratic or republican victory.

Ugh yeah, I feel pretty embarrassed. At the very least, Arizona and Michigan should be reversed.

[Goldwater]

My map (much more swing states than now):

I assumed that the Republicans are going to improve their performance among Hispanic voters. Texas was very close to Toss-up, however, I assume in thís scenario that the GOP will be able to split the Hispanic vote in Texas 50-50.

If the Republicans supposedly improve among Hispanics, why is Arizona a swing state and Nevada more Democratic than the Pacific Northwest?

[Türkisblau]

The point of nominating this for worst thread is that this is stuff that is almost impossible to predict (oh and the children talking about their future political careers).

[Mr. Morden]

The point of nominating this for worst thread is that this is stuff that is almost impossible to predict (oh and the children talking about their future political careers).

Yeah I never understood why people did that. I can understand if you want a career in politics, but that really has nothing to do with the purpose of this thread.

After I'm elected President of the United States in 2040, I'll issue an executive order that prohibits such discussions, and gets this thread back on track.

[You kip if you want to...]

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

My prediction:

[Skill and Chance]

My prediction:

So your 2040 GOP is a white SoCon/urban minority coalition and your 2040 Dems are a wealthy suburbs/rural poor alliance that is evidently winning Native Americans unanimously to explain OK and AZ?  That's actually quite plausible if urban areas are doing well enough economically.

[IceSpear]

My prediction:

So your 2040 GOP is a white SoCon/urban minority coalition and your 2040 Dems are a wealthy suburbs/rural poor alliance that is evidently winning Native Americans unanimously to explain OK and AZ?  That's actually quite plausible if urban areas are doing well enough economically.

I don't think there are a lot of white SoCons and urban minorities in Vermont. I'd be interested in hearing the reasoning behind this map, assuming it wasn't just choosing colors randomly.

[Skill and Chance]

My prediction:

So your 2040 GOP is a white SoCon/urban minority coalition and your 2040 Dems are a wealthy suburbs/rural poor alliance that is evidently winning Native Americans unanimously to explain OK and AZ?  That's actually quite plausible if urban areas are doing well enough economically.

I don't think there are a lot of white SoCons and urban minorities in Vermont. I'd be interested in hearing the reasoning behind this map, assuming it wasn't just choosing colors randomly.

How could I forget? Following the 35 ft storm surge and 180 mph sustained winds during Hurricane Scott in 2029, most of the New Orleans metro area and parts of Acadiana were abandoned.  An organized mass migration to Vermont followed.  By 2035, an outright majority of Vermonters reported being born in Louisiana and the following year, they threw out the Democratic government that had ruled continuously since 2010, electing Cajun and Creole Republicans to all statewide offices and flipping both houses of the state legislature.  The triumphant 2037 Mardi Gras parade proceeded through a 3 foot snowstorm in Burlington.

[Goldwater]

This is, of course, pure speculation and I could turm out to be completely wrong, but I could see something like this:

Basically, I'm thinking that the Republican are at the point where they can't get much more support from white voters, so they end up becoming more competitive with Hispanics, which is why they are winning states like Nevada and Colorado. Meanwhile, Democrats are dominating with black voters and urban, which when combined with shifting demographics is why they are able to win states like Mississippi and Georgia.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

[OldDominion]

West Coast becoming majority Hispanic, heavily Mexican-dominated a la Mexican Empire days pre-American expansion, East coast seeing some of that with differing races though, but primarily Hispanic influence, particularly in Virginia, NC (urban development + Raleigh, CH, college town expansion), and Florida.

Majority minority in Georgia, and MS.

Rocky Mountains a sort of liberal to almost hipster-libertarian combo going on. NE stays Dem. Montana goes Dem due to Cali population density and flight from the state. More southern state environmental left leanings due to global warming affecting coastal areas, fisheries, etc.

Texas leaning Dem but still not there due to Texas individualism, cowboy spirit attitudes. It could go Dem sooner in reality, however.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

My prediction:

So your 2040 GOP is a white SoCon/urban minority coalition and your 2040 Dems are a wealthy suburbs/rural poor alliance that is evidently winning Native Americans unanimously to explain OK and AZ?  That's actually quite plausible if urban areas are doing well enough economically.

I don't think there are a lot of white SoCons and urban minorities in Vermont. I'd be interested in hearing the reasoning behind this map, assuming it wasn't just choosing colors randomly.

Yeah it was random, but I'll explain anyway.

The 2040 election is a lot like 1960 in that a lot of people voted seemingly randomly, with over half of the states being decided by a margin of less than 10%. With current EVs this would be a modest Republican win, but under 2040 reapportionment it would be much closer.
Rapid urban flight from California, New York and Florida to the great plains and interior west drastically increase their population and make them left-leaning swing states, while Nevada and Colorado become even more Democratic than they already are. Idaho, Utah and Oklahoma are some of the closest states in this scenario. Republicans improve their numbers with upper-middle class suburbanites and Hispanics, bringing Florida and New Mexico (which had been largely resistant to the urban liberal migration) solidly back into the Republican fold. A lot of southern whites move north to New England and upstate New York after weather conditions in the coastal south get progressively worse. This creates a trend the opposite of the one happening in the interior west, as the new inhabitants drastically increase the states' populations while pushing them to the right significantly. Mississippi and Louisiana become majority black, a constituency which still goes for Democrats overwhelmingly. Democrats become much more populist, targeting poor rural whites. This strategy is relatively successful, helping to push Alabama and South Carolina back into the Democratic fold while increasing their margins in the great plains. It's not enough to push them back into relevance in the interior south, which by now is long gone for the Democrats. New Jersey and Connecticut stay slightly Democratic as few southerners move there and a lot of suburbanites move out after multiple Hurricane Sandies. Current trends continue in Virginia and Maryland, the former becoming a Likely D state while the latter is one of the strongest Democratic states in the country. The Midwest is really swingy, with the urban depopulation being cancelled out by the rise in Democratic support from midwestern farmers. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are all decided by less than 5 points.
Nothing happens in Alaska and Hawaii, and they stay exactly as they are today.

[TheRealSlimShady]

Pretty much all of the usual red states will stay red and the usual blue states will stay blue. I plan to be a candidate in either 2036 or possibly 2040.

[AGA]

I know that this is an old thread, but this is for fun.

In an even election, the map could look like this if trends continue. Of course, this is really a shot in the dark.

[Figueira]

This is, of course, pure speculation and I could turm out to be completely wrong, but I could see something like this:

Basically, I'm thinking that the Republican are at the point where they can't get much more support from white voters, so they end up becoming more competitive with Hispanics, which is why they are winning states like Nevada and Colorado. Meanwhile, Democrats are dominating with black voters and urban, which when combined with shifting demographics is why they are able to win states like Mississippi and Georgia.

I'd switch Colorado with Minnesota but otherwise, looks reasonable.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I know that this is an old thread, but this is for fun.

In an even election, the map could look like this if trends continue. Of course, this is really a shot in the dark.

I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't see Mississippi drifting away from the Republicans anytime soon, and certainly not in just 24 years.

[The_Doctor]

I'll have to write up a full blown explanation of this but it's quite complicated.

The long and short of it, the GOP becomes competitive in the cities and the urban areas as a result of blowouts in the 2020s or 2030s by the Democrats, leading up to this Presidential election. The loss of Texas and the Sunbelt as well as California also force the GOP to become vastly more moderate and the Democrats rely on minority voters to power them.

The evangelical base is dead and the business wing of the GOP is more moderate, by far, allowing the GOP to compete in areas they wouldn't otherwise. The Great Immigration debate is done in favor of immigration reform and global warming is accepted by both parties as a serious concern, thus easing the GOP's path in many coastal states. Minorities, however, still vote heavily Democratic thus making Texas and California Democratic states.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

A damaged Democratic Party splits in two and makes what would have already been a Republican victory even larger. Close states here include CA, NM, TX, NY, MA, VA, and GA. All names made up except Love and Gallego.

United States presidential election, 2040

Fmr. Vice Pres. Mia Love [R-UT] / Gov. Paul Inlet [R-MA] — 465 EV - 51.0%
Pres. Ruben Gallego [D-AZ] / Vice Pres. Jacqueline Napier [D-NH] — 48 EV - 36.4%
Rep. Oscar Gomez [I-NV] / Gov. John Schacher [D-IL] — 25 EV - 12.3%

[/color]

[Mayflower1978]

Electoral College might have been Abolished somewhere in 2020's or 2030's, South and West would go Democratic again while North especially Midwest Rust belt states would go Republican.

[Mayflower1978]

West Coast becoming majority Hispanic, heavily Mexican-dominated a la Mexican Empire days pre-American expansion, East coast seeing some of that with differing races though, but primarily Hispanic influence, particularly in Virginia, NC (urban development + Raleigh, CH, college town expansion), and Florida.

Majority minority in Georgia, and MS.

Rocky Mountains a sort of liberal to almost hipster-libertarian combo going on. NE stays Dem. Montana goes Dem due to Cali population density and flight from the state. More southern state environmental left leanings due to global warming affecting coastal areas, fisheries, etc.

Texas leaning Dem but still not there due to Texas individualism, cowboy spirit attitudes. It could go Dem sooner in reality, however.

Why Majority Minority in GA and MS? (No Offense, I'm not trying to be Racist) I Hate Racism.

[blacknwhiterose]

In the next 20 years, the new Republican Party based on civic nationalism will consolidate remaining white working-class Democrats while managing to include non-whites under a banner of national populism, similar to national populist movements in multiracial Latin American countries.  Many hispanics will naturally become more Republican as they become more assimilated.  Democrats will dispose of their white working-class baggage and become unabashedly progressive, continuing to rely heavily on urban centers, college leftist enclaves, upscale whites, and continued high margins with the black vote.  Union workers and people with STEM degrees will skew Republican.  Cosmopolitan "creative class" and people with Arts/Humanities degrees will skew Democratic.  Single men will skew Republican.  Single women Democratic.  Suburbs will continue to be the bell weathers.  Republican Party: American Nationalism, social common-sense, market economics.  Democratic Party: Moral Internationalism, social justice/progressive, market liberalism.

Virginia becomes part of Democratic cosmopolitan base on eastern seaboard, balanced by the west coast.  Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina become sought-after southern swing states for Dems.  Republican inroads with Hispanics keep New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada fair, and keep Arizona and Texas as GOP stalwarts.  Wisconsin follows Ohio and Iowa towards deeper Republican.  Minnesota joins Michigan and Pennsylvania as sought-after northern swing states for Republicans.  Maine and New Hampshire follow rural/exurban American trend GOP.

Top Purple states:  Colorado, Minnesota, and Florida

[JustinTimeCuber]

I love it how after one Democratic candidate underperforms in rural areas, people assume that the Democrats are doomed in WI and ME.

[Person Man]

Texas is competitive during a D wave, the same wave against them would put CO, VA, RI, and CT in danger.