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Author Topic: PA 6 is now open.  (Read 3469 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: July 14, 2009, 10:13:31 am »
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http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/07/gerlach-to-run-for-governor-retire-from-congress.html


Should be fun, as always.
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2009, 10:15:10 am »
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Thinking Pike v. Schroder?  D's SHOULD pick Dinniman.  Win this seat once and for all.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2009, 10:38:36 am »
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Thinking Pike v. Schroder?  D's SHOULD pick Dinniman.  Win this seat once and for all.

Not sure about the Dem side but, yeah, we're probably going with Curt.
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2009, 11:14:13 am »
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Cao, Kirk, and now Gerlach... the R's aren't helping their own chances to take back the house with these 3 likely flips.
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2009, 11:30:15 am »
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I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2009, 11:44:01 am »
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I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.

That's irrelevant.
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2009, 12:35:13 pm »
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I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.

That's irrelevant.

Well, as for Cao, he might as well be getting his resume out to K Street.  As for PA 6, it would lean Dem by default but I don't know too much about Doug Pike.  I have heard of Curt Schroder though and the Dems should coax Andy Dinniman to run.  I don't know much about IL-10, but it sounds a lot like a PA 6/7/8 or even an NJ-3 type district.
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2009, 05:34:07 pm »
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I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.

That's irrelevant.

Well, as for Cao, he might as well be getting his resume out to K Street.  As for PA 6, it would lean Dem by default but I don't know too much about Doug Pike.  I have heard of Curt Schroder though and the Dems should coax Andy Dinniman to run.  I don't know much about IL-10, but it sounds a lot like a PA 6/7/8 or even an NJ-3 type district.

IL-10 is a lot like CT-04. 
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2009, 05:41:50 pm »
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I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.

That's irrelevant.

Well, as for Cao, he might as well be getting his resume out to K Street.  As for PA 6, it would lean Dem by default but I don't know too much about Doug Pike.  I have heard of Curt Schroder though and the Dems should coax Andy Dinniman to run.  I don't know much about IL-10, but it sounds a lot like a PA 6/7/8 or even an NJ-3 type district.

IL-10 is a lot like CT-04. 

With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%. Luckily we have a candidate who represents a State House District that went to Obama with 60%, and she is top drawer fundraiser. But since there will likely be a primary challenger and that this is the ILL GOP we are talking about, there is a good chance that they could f**k it up as usuall.

What about this Curt Schroder fellow? How is he at fundraising, how well does he fit the district, and finally what is current position?
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2009, 06:19:33 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2009, 06:22:44 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.



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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2009, 06:50:00 pm »
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Cao, Kirk, and now Gerlach... the R's aren't helping their own chances to take back the house with these 3 likely flips.

Nor or they helping their chance at winning seats in the Seat and Governor's Mansions Cheesy
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2009, 07:32:35 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

HP


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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2009, 07:49:23 pm »
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Cao, Kirk, and now Gerlach... the R's aren't helping their own chances to take back the house with these 3 likely flips.

Delaware's at-large is likely to flip as well as Castle probably won't be running for reelection
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« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2009, 08:25:40 pm »
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With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%.

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...
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« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2009, 08:45:46 pm »
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With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%.

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...

The only Republicans left in Kerry districts are Cao (75-24), Kirk (53-47), Castle (53-46), Gerlach (52-48), Reichert (51-48), and possibly Dent (50-50).
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« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2009, 08:56:05 pm »
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Hopefully Reichert deicdes to stay in the house then run for senator.
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« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2009, 09:01:11 pm »
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With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%.

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...

The only Republicans left in Kerry districts are Cao (75-24), Kirk (53-47), Castle (53-46), Gerlach (52-48), Reichert (51-48), and possibly Dent (50-50).

Yea its a shame considering there used to be what 20 or 30 Repubs in Kerry districts.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2009, 09:13:24 pm »
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With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%.

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...

The only Republicans left in Kerry districts are Cao (75-24), Kirk (53-47), Castle (53-46), Gerlach (52-48), Reichert (51-48), and possibly Dent (50-50).

Yea its a shame considering there used to be what 20 or 30 Repubs in Kerry districts.

Let's see... you had Leach and Nussle, the three Connecticut Republicans, Beauprez, Northup, Heather Wilson, Fitzpatrick, that guy that Ron Klein beat, Bass, Weldon, and I think that's it. So, 18 or so? C'est la vie.
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2009, 09:40:53 pm »
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With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%.

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...

The only Republicans left in Kerry districts are Cao (75-24), Kirk (53-47), Castle (53-46), Gerlach (52-48), Reichert (51-48), and possibly Dent (50-50).

Yea its a shame considering there used to be what 20 or 30 Repubs in Kerry districts.

Let's see... you had Leach and Nussle, the three Connecticut Republicans, Beauprez, Northup, Heather Wilson, Fitzpatrick, that guy that Ron Klein beat, Bass, Weldon, and I think that's it. So, 18 or so? C'est la vie.


Clay Shaw. There is also Jim Walsh, I think NY 25 went to Kerry.
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2009, 10:15:39 pm »
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I realize this is a discussion about PA-06, but since we're on the discussion of congressional districts voting the opposite way from their CPVIs or incumbents, here's a list I found - don't know if it warrants any merit or discussion.

Republican Districts Won By Obama
LA-02 (Joseph Cao - New Orleans) - Obama 74.13, McCain 24.86 = D + 49.27 (D+25)
DE-AL (Mike Castle - Delaware) - Obama 61.91, McCain 36.93 = D + 24.98 (D+7)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - North Chicago Suburbs) - Obama 60.92, McCain 38.13 = D + 22.79 (D+6)
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach - Philadelphia Suburbs) - Obama 57.81, McCain 41.21 = D + 16.60 (D+4)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - Seattle Suburbs) - Obama 56.62, McCain 41.83 = D + 14.79 (D+3)
IL-06 (Peter Roskam - Chicago Suburbs) - Obama 55.91, McCain 42.76 = D + 13.15 (D+0)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent - Lehigh Valley) - Obama 55.58, McCain 43.14 = D + 12.44 (D+2)
MI-06 (Fred Upton - Kalamazoo) - Obama 54.12, McCain 44.18 = D + 9.94 (R+0)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert - Chicago Suburbs) - Obama 54.21, McCain 44.60 = D + 9.61 (R+1)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi - Columbus Suburbs) - Obama 54.15, McCain 44.62 = D + 9.53 (D+1)
NJ-02 (Frank LoBiondo - Atlantic City) - Obama 54.00, McCain 44.71 = D + 9.29 (D+1)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter - Detroit Suburbs) - Obama 53.78, McCain 44.56 = D + 9.22 (R+0)
IA-04 (Tom Latham - Western, Ames) - Obama 53.11, McCain 45.53 = D + 7.58 (D+0)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo - Northern, Rockford) - Obama 52.78, McCain 45.52 = D + 7.26 (R+0)
MI-08 (Mike J. Rogers - Lansing) - Obama 52.58, McCain 45.72 = D + 6.86 (R+2)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf - Northern, D.C. Suburbs) - Obama 52.90, McCain 46.06 = D + 6.84 (R+2)
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen - Minneapolis Suburbs) - Obama 52.41, McCain 45.99 = D + 6.42 (R+0)
NY-26 (John McHugh - Northern, Oswego) - Obama 51.81, McCain 46.59 = D + 5.22 (R+1)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack - Orange County, Palm Springs) - Obama 51.52, McCain 46.94 = D + 4.58 (R+3)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray - San Diego, Carlsbad) - Obama 51.26, McCain 47.08 = D + 4.18 (R+3)
FL-10 (Bill Young - Palm Harbor, Seminole) - Obama 51.30, McCain 47.17 = D + 4.13 (R+1)
CA-26 (David Dreier - Rancho Cucamonga) - Obama 51.03, McCain 46.96 = D + 4.07 (R+3)
WI-01 (Paul Ryan - Racine, Kenosha) - Obama 51.40, McCain 47.45 = D + 3.95 (R+2)
NJ-07 (Leonard Lance - South Plainfield) - Obama 51.16, McCain 47.69 = D + 3.47 (R+3)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly - Thousand Oaks) - Obama 50.49, McCain 47.65 = D + 2.84 (R+4)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - Miami) - Obama 50.74, McCain 48.55 = D + 2.19 (R+3)
MI-04 (Dave Camp - Traverse City) - Obama 50.09, McCain 48.19 = D + 1.90 (R+3)
VA-04 (Randy Forbes - Chesapeake) - Obama 50.33, McCain 48.80 = D + 1.53 (R+4)
NE-02 (Lee Terry - Omaha) - Obama 49.97, McCain 48.75 = D + 1.22 (R+6)
WI-06 (Tom Petri - Fond du Lac) - Obama 49.91, McCain 48.72 = D + 1.19 (R+4)
CA-25 (Howard McKeon - Santa Clarita) - Obama 49.45, McCain 48.34 = D + 1.11 (R+6)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert - Orange County, Inland Empire) - Obama 49.51, McCain 48.57 = D + 0.94 (R+6)
CA-48 (John Campbell - Orange County, Laguna Hills) - Obama 49.30, McCain 48.55 = D + 0.75 (R+6)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren - Elk Grove, Folsom) - Obama 49.28, McCain 48.81 = D + 0.47 (R+6)
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2009, 10:58:57 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

HP


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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.
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« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2009, 11:36:22 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

HP


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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2009, 11:39:39 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

HP


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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

Look who led the ticket in 2002 and 2004 was a Presidential election year (higher turnout).
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2009, 11:42:21 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

HP


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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?
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