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Author Topic: PA 6 is now open.  (Read 3477 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2009, 11:54:02 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?

Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 
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« Reply #26 on: July 14, 2009, 11:55:25 pm »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?

Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 

Plus the Dem candidates weren't that great either.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #27 on: July 14, 2009, 11:59:29 pm »
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Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 

No, Gerlach really wasn't well liked.
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« Reply #28 on: July 15, 2009, 12:07:41 am »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

HP


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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?

Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 

And Democrats couldn't why? I mean, Chris Shays worked the district very hard and was well liked. Rob Simmons worked the district very hard and was well liked.
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« Reply #29 on: July 15, 2009, 01:07:57 am »
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I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall Cheesy

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This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.





Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?

Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 

And Democrats couldn't why? I mean, Chris Shays worked the district very hard and was well liked. Rob Simmons worked the district very hard and was well liked.

Murphy should have won in 06 and even outspent Gerlach.  In 08 Gerlach had a huge $$ advantage about 7-2, which was a much larger advantage than Shays had (virtually even) and Simmons as well (a little less than 3-2).

We do need to find out who the candidates are, but at this point it is a Dem leaning district.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #30 on: July 15, 2009, 01:09:31 am »
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but at this point it is a Dem leaning district.

Tell me a few things about the potential Dem candidates, Smash.
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Smash255
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« Reply #31 on: July 15, 2009, 01:25:15 am »
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but at this point it is a Dem leaning district.

Tell me a few things about the potential Dem candidates, Smash.

I'll admit I don't know that much about the potential candidates.  However, I was talking about the overall political makeup of the district which favors the Dems.  Until we know more about the potential candidates and who they are you can't make any concrete predictions on the race.  However, you can talk about the overall structure of the district, and which side that favors, which is what I was doing.
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #32 on: July 15, 2009, 01:57:29 am »
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but at this point it is a Dem leaning district.

Tell me a few things about the potential Dem candidates, Smash.

I'll admit I don't know that much about the potential candidates.  However, I was talking about the overall political makeup of the district which favors the Dems.  Until we know more about the potential candidates and who they are you can't make any concrete predictions on the race.  However, you can talk about the overall structure of the district, and which side that favors, which is what I was doing.

Political make-up =/= favoring one side or the other
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« Reply #33 on: July 15, 2009, 08:30:19 am »
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So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?

The Democrats ran a third-tier candidate in 2008 and he nearly defeated Gerlach on Presidential coattails/anti-Republicanism alone.

No, Phil, elections in PA-6 won't go 58%-41% forever... but the difference between 2008 and future years isn't "Democrats win, or Democrats lose," it's that the margin of the D advantage will reduce along with the national margin. Maybe there will be a Republican suburban comeback in the northeast suburbs in federal races, but we haven't seen any green shoots for it yet.
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« Reply #34 on: July 15, 2009, 11:16:18 am »
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Maybe there will be a Republican suburban comeback in the northeast suburbs in federal races, but we haven't seen any green shoots for it yet.

This isn't about a comeback; we're still in charge here and there are dynamics that still favor my party in this seat.
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« Reply #35 on: July 15, 2009, 09:54:10 pm »
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Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big. The Hill is reporting that "Democratic insiders" in PA insist that Pike is the frontrunner and endorsements like this only back that up.

I bet Dinniman stays away from this. Pike already has over $600,000 on hand and is pledging to spend $1 million of his own money in the race.

Speaking of Dinniman, the woman he beat for his State Senate seat - Chester county Commissioner Carol Aichele - stated she won't run in the 6th and will continue her run for Lt. Governor. Curt Schroder basically has the GOP nomination wrapped up.
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« Reply #36 on: July 15, 2009, 09:59:54 pm »
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Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.
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« Reply #37 on: July 16, 2009, 01:30:28 am »
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Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

I also think if the Dems gave a crap about this seat, they'd win.  In 2008, it was apparent they didn't and look how close it was.  You can't tell me with a Dem Pres margin almost that of PA 13, a Dem with some clout and backing wouldn't have won that seat.  Granted, I don't think that candidate was Lois, but others could have very well beat Gerlach.  Mind you, I realize the GOP is strong farther down the ticket, but the pattern for Dem shifts usually starts from the Presidential level, Congress, then the State House/Senate seats. 
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« Reply #38 on: July 16, 2009, 08:50:10 am »
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Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

I'm asking only so I can reconcile in my head what I read about Dinniman's win and his positioning, and whether a PA-6 candidate would have to match it; I'm not trying to make any statement about the overall D/R lean of PA-6.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #39 on: July 16, 2009, 10:37:50 am »
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Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

Yes, that's why Dinniman is a threat. That being said, he did have the benefit of a weak Republican campaign against him in that Special (if I recall correctly).

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

I also think if the Dems gave a crap about this seat, they'd win. 

Gave a crap about this seat? Are you kidding me? This was a top target in 2002, 2004 and 2006! Sure, they didn't target it in 2008 and it was still close but if they had, Gerlach would have also stepped up his game.

Could he have lost? Sure. Is it a definite? No.

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« Reply #40 on: July 16, 2009, 01:29:30 pm »
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Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

Yes, that's why Dinniman is a threat. That being said, he did have the benefit of a weak Republican campaign against him in that Special (if I recall correctly).

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

I also think if the Dems gave a crap about this seat, they'd win. 

Gave a crap about this seat? Are you kidding me? This was a top target in 2002, 2004 and 2006! Sure, they didn't target it in 2008 and it was still close but if they had, Gerlach would have also stepped up his game.

Could he have lost? Sure. Is it a definite? No.



I was talking about 2008.  The district flew in the Democrats direction compared to 2004 or even 2006.  A total lightweight in Roggio got 48%.  Sure, Gerlach would have stepped up his game, but I think 2008 could have been a year that cracked him had the Dems stepped up.
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« Reply #41 on: July 19, 2009, 04:10:39 pm »
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Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

I'm asking only so I can reconcile in my head what I read about Dinniman's win and his positioning, and whether a PA-6 candidate would have to match it; I'm not trying to make any statement about the overall D/R lean of PA-6.

I live in PA-6 (and in Dinniman's Senate district). It's a traditionally very Republican area where the Dems have made inroads the past few years. Phil, if you're talking about the special against Aichele, the GOP did make a strong challenge with a good candidate in Aichele. She just ran into the Dinniman buzzsaw.
I did a lot of PA-6 work (interviewing voters) at my old job. My sense was that Gerlach had very low name recognition. The Dems need to do well in Chester County to win this seat. I'm a Dem, but I think Schroder would be a slight favorite against Pike. (Disclaimer: I know Schroder personally, though I haven't spoken to him in many years.) Much would depend on the national mood.
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« Reply #42 on: July 19, 2009, 04:24:04 pm »
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[quote author=Brian from Family Guy

I was talking about 2008.  The district flew in the Democrats direction compared to 2004 or even 2006.  A total lightweight in Roggio got 48%.  Sure, Gerlach would have stepped up his game, but I think 2008 could have been a year that cracked him had the Dems stepped up.
[/quote]
Yes! The key to PA-6, IMHO, is getting a Dem from the right part of the district. (Roggio wasn't a strong candidate. I don't know much about Pike, but a Pike-Schroder matchup could have results like Gerlach-Murphy.
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« Reply #43 on: July 19, 2009, 05:20:55 pm »
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[quote author=Brian from Family Guy

I was talking about 2008.  The district flew in the Democrats direction compared to 2004 or even 2006.  A total lightweight in Roggio got 48%.  Sure, Gerlach would have stepped up his game, but I think 2008 could have been a year that cracked him had the Dems stepped up.
Yes! The key to PA-6, IMHO, is getting a Dem from the right part of the district. (Roggio wasn't a strong candidate. I don't know much about Pike, but a Pike-Schroder matchup could have results like Gerlach-Murphy.
[/quote]

I'll concede the fact you know far more about PA 6 than I do.  I probably know more about PA 13 or even 1, 2, or 8 for that matter.  One thing I have noticed from people I've come across in suburban Philadelphia- younger people are FAR more liberal than their parents whereas in places like Northeast or South Philly, there is little difference.  In other words, of people around my age, those from the suburbs are fairly liberal whereas people from the NE are more conservative.  The 2000-2008 electoral trend is evident there.
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« Reply #44 on: July 19, 2009, 05:26:58 pm »
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Phil, if you're talking about the special against Aichele, the GOP did make a strong challenge with a good candidate in Aichele. She just ran into the Dinniman buzzsaw.

I've heard differently about Aichele but that is not to take away from Dinniman's strength.
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« Reply #45 on: July 19, 2009, 11:30:15 pm »
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[quote author=Brian from Family Guy



I'll concede the fact you know far more about PA 6 than I do.  I probably know more about PA 13 or even 1, 2, or 8 for that matter.  One thing I have noticed from people I've come across in suburban Philadelphia- younger people are FAR more liberal than their parents whereas in places like Northeast or South Philly, there is little difference.  In other words, of people around my age, those from the suburbs are fairly liberal whereas people from the NE are more conservative.  The 2000-2008 electoral trend is evident there.

I actually don't know too much (especially about the eastern part of my pterodactyl district). Doing work surveying PA-6 voters was difficult, but it at least enabled me to learn a little bit more about my district (and help to figure why Gerlach didn't do better in his elections). Agreed with your assessment about younger voters. Schroder is my state rep; Dinniman is my state senator.  Schroder usually runs unopposed. He won the 155th district in 1994, after Gerlach left for the State Senate. I don't know if I'll still be here in 2010, but it should be interesting.
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