2008 hypotheticals (hillary edition)

[WalterMitty]

would hillary have won the following states:

arkansas
west va.
north carolina
virginia
indiana
ohio
florida

discuss.

[Tender Branson]

Arkansas: YES, based on this.

West Virginia: YES, based on this.

North Carolina: NO

Virginia: I guess, but just barely.

Indiana: NO

Ohio: YES, by a bigger margin than Obama

Florida: YES, by a bigger margin than Obama

[Tender Branson]

Another big question is if Hillary would have won Colorado, Iowa and Minnesota.

Minnesota more so, but IA is in question.

I guess she would have won Missouri by a small margin.

[Nym90]

arkansas--Probably not, would've been close, however.
west va.--Probably not, would've been close, however.
north carolina--No, still would've been close though.
virginia--Yes, barely, by less than Obama did.
indiana--No, but still would've been close though.
ohio--Yes, by more than Obama did.
florida--Yes, by more than Obama did.

[Antonio the Sixth]

arkansas
west va.
north carolina
virginia
indiana
ohio
florida

[Lief 🗽]

AR- D+10
WV- D+7
NC- R+4
VA- D+2
IN- R+9
OH- D+8
FL- D+5

[DariusNJ]

Arkansas- Hillary would win by single digits
West Virginia- Hillary win in the single digits
NC: No, she would do 4-5% worse than Obama
VA: She would win, but it would be close
IN: No, but it would be very close (probably the closest state in the election)
OH: Easy win for her. She would  perform about 3% better than Obama.
Florida: She would perform about 2-3% better than Obama.

[pragmatic liberal]

Sort of depends how Hillary wins the nomination and, by extension, how big her national win is. (And yes, she would have won. It was a Democratic year.)

For example, if she only got the nomination via super-delegate coup and Obama refused the vice presidency than she faces somewhat subdued turnout and some lack of enthusiasm. Her victory margin is probably more like +3 or +4 and looks something like this:

If, however, she wins the nomination less controversially, then she probably wins by a similar popular vote margin to Obama - probably 5-6 points, and of the states you cited, she wins Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Arkansas, and W. Va - OH and FL by a bigger margin than Obama, but VA and CO by a smaller margin. She doesn't carry Indiana or North Carolina, although she probably comes within 5 in Indiana and within NC too. She also probably carries Missouri by a point or two.

She also might win Kentucky.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Missouri would be far more democratic that Arkansas, that would probably vote for McCain even with Hillary running.

[pragmatic liberal]

Missouri would be far more democratic that Arkansas, that would probably vote for McCain even with Hillary running.

Meh, I don't know. Hillary was polling ahead of McCain in most of the Arkansas polling. Granted, that was all prior to June, so who knows what would have ultimately happened.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Yes on AR and WV
No on NC, VA and IN
Depends on the national results for OH and FL

[HAnnA MArin County]

She would obviously win Arkansas and West Virginia, I'd say by double digits. Serving as First Lady in Arkansas and with West Virginia giving her one of her largest victories in the primaries, these would probably be her two best states that Obama lost, followed by Ohio and Florida where she would have performed better than Obama. She also would have done better than Obama did in Pennsylvania as well. I say she would have narrowly carried Virginia, maybe 1-2 points less than Obama, she obviously would have won Northern Virginia as well as western Virginia in Appalachia (VA-09/Rick Boucher's district) that gave McCain his biggest margin of victory. She probably wouldn't have won North Carolina because of the African American effect, and Indiana would have been close but I'd still give the state to McCain. That being said, she would have stood a very good chance at possibly carrying Kentucky, a state that Bill carried twice and several polls out of Kentucky showed her beating McCain; one poll had her beating him by 9 points. She also would have won Missouri because of our close proximity to Arkansas and more conservative/Reagan Democrats in the rural parts of the state who probably voted for McCain because they didn't feel comfortable with Obama would have easily voted for Hillary. She would have done significantly better in Tennessee and Oklahoma as well, but obviously McCain takes those states.

[pogo stick]

Arkansas - GOP Hold (R+1)
West Virginia - Democrat gain (D+10)
North Carolina - GOP Hold (R+3)
Virginia - Toss up, could go either way
Indiana = Lean GOP? (R+6)
Ohio and Florida -Democrat  comfy leads

[HAnnA MArin County]

These are the last/latest hypothetical general election match-up polls between Hillary and McCain that I could find in each of the aforementioned states.

Arkansas
05-14-08     (C+14)     Clinton: 53        McCain: 39
Rasmussen

Florida
05-20-08     (C+7)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 41
Quinnipiac

Indiana
04-30-08     (C+3)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 45
Survey USA

Kentucky
05-22-08     (C+9)       Clinton: 51        McCain: 42
Rasmussen

Missouri
05-18-08     (C+2)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 46
Survey USA

North Carolina
05-19-08     (C+6)       Clinton: 49        McCain: 43
Survey USA

Ohio
05-20-08     (C+7)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 41
Quinnipiac

Pennsylvania
05-21-08     (C+11)     Clinton: 50        McCain: 39
Rasmussen

West Virginia
05-18-08     (M+2)      McCain: 45         Clinton: 43
AP-Ipsos

[Ebowed]

Arkansas - No
West Virginia - No
North Carolina - No
Virginia - No
Indiana - No
Ohio - Yes
Florida - Yes

[Alexander Hamilton]

There's a reason Hillary never ran for AR Senate, you know.

[Alexander Hamilton]

These are the last/latest hypothetical general election match-up polls between Hillary and McCain that I could find in each of the aforementioned states.

Arkansas
05-14-08     (C+14)     Clinton: 53        McCain: 39
Rasmussen

Florida
05-20-08     (C+7)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 41
Quinnipiac

Indiana
04-30-08     (C+3)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 45
Survey USA

Kentucky
05-22-08     (C+9)       Clinton: 51        McCain: 42
Rasmussen

Missouri
05-18-08     (C+2)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 46
Survey USA

North Carolina
05-19-08     (C+6)       Clinton: 49        McCain: 43
Survey USA

Ohio
05-20-08     (C+7)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 41
Quinnipiac

Pennsylvania
05-21-08     (C+11)     Clinton: 50        McCain: 39
Rasmussen

West Virginia
05-18-08     (M+2)      McCain: 45         Clinton: 43
AP-Ipsos

All of those are very skewed towards Clinton. No way a general election would actually have those kind of results in states like Ohio and Kentucky and Indiana.

[HAnnA MArin County]

These are the last/latest hypothetical general election match-up polls between Hillary and McCain that I could find in each of the aforementioned states.

Arkansas
05-14-08     (C+14)     Clinton: 53        McCain: 39
Rasmussen

Florida
05-20-08     (C+7)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 41
Quinnipiac

Indiana
04-30-08     (C+3)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 45
Survey USA

Kentucky
05-22-08     (C+9)       Clinton: 51        McCain: 42
Rasmussen

Missouri
05-18-08     (C+2)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 46
Survey USA

North Carolina
05-19-08     (C+6)       Clinton: 49        McCain: 43
Survey USA

Ohio
05-20-08     (C+7)       Clinton: 48        McCain: 41
Quinnipiac

Pennsylvania
05-21-08     (C+11)     Clinton: 50        McCain: 39
Rasmussen

West Virginia
05-18-08     (M+2)      McCain: 45         Clinton: 43
AP-Ipsos

All of those are very skewed towards Clinton. No way a general election would actually have those kind of results in states like Ohio and Kentucky and Indiana.

These were just the most recent ones I could find. Probably not in Kentucky would she have won by 9 points, I agree, and Indiana would have been really close, but Ohio's about right. The Kentucky poll was released two days after she won the Kentucky Primary by a two-to-on-e margin over Obama, so the 9-point lead over McCain is probably attributed to her post-primary win. She would have performed much better there than Obama did, who won Ohio by like 4.6 points or something. She would have made up for the disaffected African Americans by the white working class voters in the Rust Belt.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

arkansas- yes
west va.- yes
north carolina- maybe, though I doubt it
virginia- lean dem
indiana- no
ohio- yes
florida-yes

Results look something like this:

[HAnnA MArin County]

arkansas- yes
west va.- yes
north carolina- maybe, though I doubt it
virginia- lean dem
indiana- no
ohio- yes
florida-yes

Results look something like this:

Agree mostly with your map except Arizona, John McCain's home state. I don't think she would have won NE-02, either. Obama just narrowly carried it. I think she would have won Kentucky or North Carolina before she would have won Arizona.

[Husker]

Hillary wouldn't have won NE-2 and I think NE-AL would have been one of her worst defeats. Obama is the first candidate in 44 years to get over 40% statewide and did quite well in our two largest cities.

[Nym90]

I think folks are reading too much into primary results here. Once she won the nomination Hillary would've suffered much the same attacks on her "liberal" record as Obama did; I can't see her making up a 20 point deficit in Arkansas, pseudo-home state or not. Likewise West Virginia. Both would've been close, but I doubt she would've done better than say Gore did.

The only state Obama lost that she would've won is Missouri, while I think she would've lost Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska-2. Everything else stays the same. Colorado and Virginia are closer but still narrowly for Clinton, while Ohio and Florida are solid Clinton wins.

Also a factor is who Clinton's running mate is; tactically she would've been best to go for a fresh face from a state that was potentially troublesome for her. I see Gov. Kaine of Virginia, especially since he was an Obama supporter in the primaries, as a pretty ideal choice. Obama himself, of course, is another strong possibility; being the first black on a major party ticket, he still would've boosted black turnout quite a bit, though obviously not as much as he did on the top of the ticket.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think folks are reading too much into primary results here. Once she won the nomination Hillary would've suffered much the same attacks on her "liberal" record as Obama did; I can't see her making up a 20 point deficit in Arkansas, pseudo-home state or not. Likewise West Virginia. Both would've been close, but I doubt she would've done better than say Gore did.

The only state Obama lost that she would've won is Missouri, while I think she would've lost Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska-2. Everything else stays the same. Colorado and Virginia are closer but still narrowly for Clinton, while Ohio and Florida are solid Clinton wins.

Also a factor is who Clinton's running mate is; tactically she would've been best to go for a fresh face from a state that was potentially troublesome for her. I see Gov. Kaine of Virginia, especially since he was an Obama supporter in the primaries, as a pretty ideal choice. Obama himself, of course, is another strong possibility; being the first black on a major party ticket, he still would've boosted black turnout quite a bit, though obviously not as much as he did on the top of the ticket.

Totally agreed.

[big bad fab]

I think folks are reading too much into primary results here. Once she won the nomination Hillary would've suffered much the same attacks on her "liberal" record as Obama did; I can't see her making up a 20 point deficit in Arkansas, pseudo-home state or not. Likewise West Virginia. Both would've been close, but I doubt she would've done better than say Gore did.

The only state Obama lost that she would've won is Missouri, while I think she would've lost Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska-2. Everything else stays the same. Colorado and Virginia are closer but still narrowly for Clinton, while Ohio and Florida are solid Clinton wins.

Also a factor is who Clinton's running mate is; tactically she would've been best to go for a fresh face from a state that was potentially troublesome for her. I see Gov. Kaine of Virginia, especially since he was an Obama supporter in the primaries, as a pretty ideal choice. Obama himself, of course, is another strong possibility; being the first black on a major party ticket, he still would've boosted black turnout quite a bit, though obviously not as much as he did on the top of the ticket.

She would have campaigned like a "classical" Dem and so would have picked Strickland, to secure Ohio, as she would have won in PA and Florida by herself: that would have been enough, no need to bother to gain VA.
OH and FL: the 2 main objectives of Hillary.

She would have won Minnesota, Iowa without any problem.
She would have won Missouri, but I'm not sure at all about Arkansas: polls were overestimating her "home effect".

With Strickland, she would have won WV, but not KY.

NC and Indiana would have stayed in GOP's column.

In the West and SW, nothing would have been different, even in CO. Maybe she would have been even better than Obama.

[Husker]

I don't think Iowa and Colorado would have been certain wins for Hillary, even though I would lean toward her still winning them due to the economy. If she had won the democratic primary and the economy was still strong, she probably wouldn't have taken Colorado and would have had a narrow win in Iowa. Using that same argument, Obama probably doesn't take IN or NC, and FL/OH might have been quite close.