Brazil Election Maps

[Hashemite]

Yay, another map thread.

I'll be starting out with the first year I have data, 1945, and move on from there until I reach 2006 at which point I'll other types of maps.

1945 (President)



Results:

Eurico Gaspar Dutra (PSD+PTB): 55.40%
Eduardo Gomes (UDN+PRP): 34.73%
Yeddo Fiúza (PCB): 9.70%
Álvaro Rolim Teles (PAN): 0.17%

Dutra was the Getulista candidate, endorsed by Vargas' two outfits, the centre-right PSD and the centre-left Labour Party (PTB). However, Dutra governed as a rightist, he had a right-wing economic policy and was very anti-Communist (banned the PCB in 1946). The PTB later broke with him. The UDN was the right-wing anti-Vargas outfit, mainly liberal constitutionalists and the PRP was a small far-right party, the heir of the Brazilian Integralist (fascist) movement in the '30's. I have no clue who Álvaro Rolim Teles is, aside from the fact that he was an agrarian-ruralist candidate with the highest favourite son vote in history, possibly, in Roraima (then the Territory of Rio Branco). The weird territories in the south west are the federal territories of Iguacu and Ponta Porá, both of which were created in 1943 and abolished by Dutra in 1946. The island off the coast, which is placed in the wrong place, is Fernando de Noronha, which we all know about since the Air France crash, which was federal territory until 1988 (though 1945 is the only year for which I can find the results on the island).

[Χahar]

Yay!

[big bad fab]

Hashemite, the Cartographor, is back.

Fine, it's so poor on Brazil, we need an exhaustive update !
Thanks a lot for opening this topic.

[Hashemite]

Any interest in continuing this?

[The Head Beagle]

Any interest in continuing this?

I don't know about the whole history, but I'd definitely be interested to see Lula's election and maybe compare it with the previous one with Cardoso.

[big bad fab]

Any interest in continuing this?

Yep, the 1960s should be interesting.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Any interest in continuing this?

Yep, the 1960s should be interesting.

I'd love to see a map from 1960 (Quadros)

[Vasall des Midas]

Continue the Presidentials. The others, over such a time scale in a country I know something about but not enough, are information overkill to me.

[Hashemite]

You'll notice I've bumped this thread, and deleted all my map posts except the first one since I'm starting anew. I want to post maps, discuss the maps and results and so forth in this thread; while still moving chronologically (at the outset) since 1945.

First, I shall begin by posting a concise overview of the major parties post-1945:

The Social Democratic Party (PSD) was consistently the largest party federally until 1964. Its success can be explained by the fact that it was probably the party least concerned with ideology, being a coalition including the middle-class which benefited from Vargas' industrialization, Vargas' interventors in the states (Benedito Valadares in Minas Gerais being the best example, he was appointed by Vargas in 1933 and remained a loyal ally, and founded the PSD) and a share of rural oligarchical landowners who sided with Vargas during the Estado Novo. The PSD stood for nothing, which made it generally conservative though it included left-wing elements (Kubitschek). Despite the name, it was not social democratic at any rate and some members were borderline democrats.

The National Democratic Union (UDN) was founded in 1943 or so by everybody who opposed Vargas and anti-getulism was the party's raison-d'etre for most of its existence. It included liberal constitutionalists (mainly Republica Velha oligarchs and Paulista businessmen who were pissed off at Vargas for telling them to go fuck themselves), the anti-getulista landowners, primarily in the poor Nordeste; and obviously the more professional middle-class and those whose economic survival depended on the failure of industrialization. The UDN was largely right-wing, and the most neo-liberal inclined of the main parties though the UDN never campaigned much on policy. Interestingly, it originally included a socialist faction (the few socialists who were opposed to Vargas - mostly people who were socialists for ideological and not political/pragmatic reasons ) but they left by 1946 to found a small Socialist Party (PSB). The UDN was anti-getulista, they hated Vargas for a living and with a passion unequaled. By Vargas' second term, the UDN fell under the influence of the Brazilian Rush Limbaugh, Carlos Lacerda, a press magnate who hated Vargas more than anything else in the world. Lacerda was extremely ambitious, and represented the UDN's right, which was always encouraging the military to stage a coup because they couldn't win elections (the UDN's credo was basically: Universal suffrage and free elections as long as the good people win, or else it's no fair).

The Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) was the second getulist party, and became Vargas' personal vehicle for power. Its base rested on Vargas' control of trade unions and the urban working class, controlled by his Ministry of Labour. It was the third largest party (and second in 1962), but grew in votes in all legislative elections due to the growth of the Brazilian working class. It included a more fire-breathing left-wing, led by Leonel Brizola (Governor of Rio Grande do Sul) who were radically nationalist; but a more moderate wing led by San Tiago Dantas who favoured structuralist economics or developmental nationalism. The PTB was also strong in Rio Grande do Sul. It may seem weird that the working-class party would be strong in the pampas, but the PTB's (or, more like it, Vargas') positivism as well as the fact that Vargas - and Goulart - owned ranches was a major advantage (besides being both Vargas' and Goulart's home-state).

The Social Progressive Party (PSP) was the personal machine of Adhemar de Barros, Governor of Sao Paulo. Adhemar had been interventor in the state, and a close ally of Vargas; and his return to electoral politics in 1947 was marked by his emergence as an ambitious populist with a large base including working-class support and some middle-class tolerance. The PSP supported Vargas in 1950, but Adhemar was very ambitious.

The Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) was founded in 1922, legalized in 1945 and banned in 1947. It followed the Moscow line obediently (which led to a split later, with the emergence of the pro-Beijing PCdoB) and its support was catalyzed by Luis Carlos Prestes' (of the Prestes Column) personal charisma and popularity. It was a strong rival to the PTB for working-class votes in the 1945 and 1947 elections, and its strength worried the PSD-UDN (as well as the PTB, which was quite happy to see its main vote-getting rival banned). Its position towards Vargas between 1944 and 1954 was quite unsure, supporting Vargas in 1945 but later opposing him while he was in power ('coz he was a dirty imperialist).

Other parties of note include the Party of Popular Representation (PRP), the successor to Salgado's Integralism (it hated Vargas and allied with the UDN consistently); the Republican Party (PR) which represented the old oligarchy of Minas Gerais and whose ranks included Artur Bernardes (President of Brazil between '22 and '26); and the Christian Democrats (PDC), a right-wing party whose main fame comes from being one of Quadros' parties. Forgot a bunch, o/c.

[Hashemite]

Should I stop or continue as I had originally planned?

[platypeanArchcow]

Should I stop or continue as I had originally planned?

If you do, I'll read it.

[Hashemite]

OK, I'll continue. But people, comment, it's a sign that people are responding to this.



To the shagrin of Lacerda/Gomes et al, the people didn't share their hate of Vargas who won by a large margin. To be fair, it was an unequal contest. Eduardo Gomes was worthless and entirely out of touch.

Vargas' strongest base was in the most industrialized area of Brazil; Rio de Janeiro to Paraná including São Paulo. His good results in São Paulo and Paraná are more the product of the PSP's support.

His 'poor' result in his home state can be explained by the fact that Vargas had a number of enemies in RG do Sul.

There was a PSD candidate, a wet pizza from Minas Gerais named Cristiano Machado. Of course, Vargas managed to gather enough support from PSD leaders in the various states to make Machado's candidacy a joke. Machado won 32.2% in Minas Gerais, Vargas 32.9% and Gomes 34.8%.

[Cubby]

OK, I'll continue. But people, comment, it's a sign that people are responding to this.

I like this thread, but the problem is that I am unfamiliar with Brazilian politics before Lula was elected in 2002. I know there was a military dictatorship from 1966-1985, and that the Catholic clergy used to tell poor Brazilians that if Communists/Socialists were elected, they would eat their children (read that somewhere once).

We are learning from what you post, even if we don't always comment.

[Hashemite]

the Catholic clergy used to tell poor Brazilians that if Communists/Socialists were elected, they would eat their children (read that somewhere once).

Actually, I doubt that. A good part of the Church in Brazil, especially in the Nordeste, was borderline socialist and they were a leading force calling for agrarian reform and organized poor peasants against the landowners of the region. The Christian left and liberation theology are quite important in the Brazilian church.

It's also interesting that in 1891, when the Republic decreed separation of church and state, the church was quite happy in that it had had poor relations with the Imperial Family and government.

[Χahar]

I'm sure that there were reactionary clergy somewhere. Perhaps in the café com leite states.

[Hashemite]

I'm sure that there were reactionary clergy somewhere. Perhaps in the café com leite states.

Certainly, but it was very minor. The Brazilian Church is known much more for its progressiveness, and a majority supported Goulart and opposed the military regime.

[Hashemite]

What's interesting about Brazil's first democracy is that the VP was elected in a separate vote. Although the presidential nominee had a running-mate, it was possible for the President to have his running mate defeated (happened once, in 1960...)

Café Filho was Vargas' running mate, as part of a deal with the PSP. Odilon Braga was Gomes' UDN running mate, and former SP Governor Altino Arantes was Machado's running mate (although he was a member of the mineiros PR). There were two other small candidates.

Café Filho obviously didn't have Vargas' appeal and he won only 35.8% against 33.3% for Braga. He was from Rio Grande do Norte (he was selected to help Vargas in the UDN-dominated Nordeste). He did well in Sao Paulo, where the PSP machine was behind him and in Rio/Guanabara, Paraná and RG do Sul where Vargas' voters seemingly did not split their vote. Though the PSD-PR did quite well in Rio Grande do Sul, where they supported Vargas over Machado but not Café Filho.

Amusingly Arantes won Minas Gerais narrowly over Braga, showing the strength of the PR in the state. He did very poorly in his home state, where the PSD (or PR) never really existed.

[Hashemite]

1955:



1955 VP:



Analysis upon request

[Hashemite]

Al's mention of this thread reminded me that I found, today in fact, some fabulous maps of recent elections on the blog of Jairo Nicolau, who's a great Brazilian political scientist/psephologist (and who maintains the only election archive for the country).

As the Nordeste is a subject of interest for me, I'll start with his maps of the five elections in the region between 1989 and 2006.

1989 (Collor - Lula)



1994 (FHC - Lula)



1998 (FHC - Lula)



2002 (Lula - Serra)



2006 (Lula - Chuchu)

[Hashemite]

Veja has a great new thingee showing results of the first rounds since 1994 by municipality and including demographic filters.

http://veja.abril.com.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-2010-municipios.shtml

fun fact: Lula lost the dirt-poor sertao village he was born in by 54-39 in 1994 and 68-23 in 1998.

[Hashemite]

uhm, the Northeast maps and the Veja link didn't spark the interest I hoped they would. Any random requests or questions/comments?

[Sibboleth]

Fascination does not always produce comment

Are there any notable differences between the smaller places that saw good Lula results before 2002 and other smaller places?

[Hashemite]

Fascination does not always produce comment

Are there any notable differences between the smaller places that saw good Lula results before 2002 and other smaller places?

A lot of small villages in the sertao which voted differently from their neighbors are likely due some very local factor like a weak local oligarch/machine, a unusually progressive local boss or something else.

A lot of small places where Lula did well pre-2002, especially in Pernambuco along the state line with Bahia, are driven by the hydroelectric industry. Petrolândia, Petrolina are notable examples.

[Hashemite]

I did this map a long while ago, but never posted it:



a few notes about the nature of elections in Brazil between 45 and 64:
-only literates could vote, which in those days meant a near-majority of people couldn't legally vote. enlisted men in the military also could not vote.
-turnout as a % of the VAP was roughly 15-20% or so (which is better than turnout in the Republica Velha, which was 1-3%)
-in isolated and rural states, coronelismo ruled supreme and state machines played a major role
-in 1945, the current-day states of AC, RO, RR and AP were federal territories where nobody lived

and a few notes about 1945:
-many believe that Vargas' late and half-hearted "endorsement" of Dutra won the election, given that most people thought Gomes would win
-Gomes was still an idiot, who thought he was living in 1910 and not in 1945. Ho hum, he praised the old oligarchs and wanted to abolish the minimum wage
-Yedo Fiuza was a nobody (engineer and former mayor), and probably not even a member of the PCB; which makes his 9-10% result a big success. It was part of Prestes' strategy to cooperate with the bourgeois state democratically (Prestes also strongly opposed the military's preventive coup earlier that year, and, as ironic as it might seem, might be considered a queremista)
-the city of Rio, then the federal district, was a PCB stronghold by its very working-class nature; the PCB also did well in Sao Paulo, Campinas, Santos, Porto Alegre (iirc), Manaus and of course Recife which was a major PCB stronghold

[Hashemite]

no comments make me sad , but here's some more:

1950:


a few remarks:
-Vargas won/bought the endorsement of Governor Adhemar de Barros of Sao Paulo, which contributed considerably to his national victory and his big win in the state. The talk that Adhemar won him a million votes, though, is probably wrong
-notice the traditional PTB bastions of strength in the PR-RJ corridor, which is the industrialized area by then and thus the base of the PTB
-Vargas never performed very well in Rio Grande do Sul and the state caused him a few nightmares, especially during the first years of his tenure in the 30s
-Cafe Filho helped him a lot in the Nordeste and RN
-Cristiano Machado was a complete nobody (from MG) and doofus endorsed by the PSD (mostly the right-wing of the party) for the sake of not "officially" endorsing Vargas. He was backed by Dutra, but most of the PSD abandoned him for Vargas. The act of nominating a candidate as a show and in practice supporting another is thus called 'cristianization' or something
-he won 33% in MG, splitting the vote to give Gomes the state
-see my previous comments on state machines

1955:


a few remarks:
-Adhemar had supported Vargas in 1950 only because it was too early for him to run himself, and his plan had been for Vargas to endorse him in 1955 (but Vargas put a bullet through himself, literally, before that could happen). He was a typical fake populist chameleon, supported by the Communists in 1947 and winning elections on a coalition of working-class and low-income voters which he basically paid (the usual strategy of the populists in the 50s). He was, of course, a crook (the slogan was "he steals, but he gives" or something like that). He became a right-winger (anti-Jango) by his 1962 gubernatorial win over Janio, and supported the coup in 1964 (and then had his safe broken into by lefties)
-Plinio Salgado, of course, was the 30s integralist leader. He claimed to have dropped his fascism by the 50s, but was a nationalist right-winger who hated Vargas (obviously) and took votes mostly from Tavora. He likely gave the election to JK, which means one could 'thank' him for stuff like Brasilia (and inflation).
-fascist support in Brazil came from white European immigrants (Italians and Germans) in the south, as well as from the educated middle-class.