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Poll
Question: How many seats will the GOP have?
<170   -3 (4.6%)
171-180   -5 (7.7%)
181-217   -33 (50.8%)
218-230   -13 (20%)
>231   -11 (16.9%)
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Total Voters: 64

Author Topic: 2010 house predictions  (Read 16312 times)
Farage
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« on: July 16, 2009, 09:43:07 am »
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If Obama's approval will be between 45-50 pc, the unemployment rate hits the 11 pc, the stimulus,which is unpopular, is the n°1 issue, COULD THE GOP win the majority in the house of representatives?

According to the cook PVI, there is about 40-50 seats who are hold by democrats but who are politically republican and conservative. Can the GOP win them? Can the GOP make his comeback and improve his score in New England in this scenario?
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2009, 06:54:22 pm »
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If Obama's approval will be between 45-50 pc, the unemployment rate hits the 11 pc, the stimulus,which is unpopular, is the n1 issue, COULD THE GOP win the majority in the house of representatives?

According to the cook PVI, there is about 40-50 seats who are hold by democrats but who are politically republican and conservative. Can the GOP win them? Can the GOP make his comeback and improve his score in New England in this scenario?

Its not that simple. Some of those seats are in areas that while Republican and Conservative Federally have popular incumbents that will be hard if not impossible to defeat in any environment like Gene Taylor, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, and Ben Chandler. Other seats have a history of protecting incumbents regardless of party especially some in the the South.

My predicion it the GOP will have 185 to 190 seats after 2010. If the Environment is bad enough I can see them hitting 200-205 but I don't see them getting more then 205 and thus no where near a majority. The Better the results in 2010 however, and the fewer the losses in 2012 would make it all that much easier to win the Majority in 2014.
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2009, 08:16:32 pm »
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The only way Republicans can gain more than maybe 15-20 seats is if Democrats leave a lot of Conservative seats open.  That is what killed Democrats in 1994.  They left seats open that year like FL-01, GA-08, AZ-01, FL-15, IL-11, IN-06,  MI-08, MS-01, NJ-02, OK-02, OK-04, SC-03, TN-03, TN-04, and many others that were almost guarenteed GOP pickups as soon as they opened up.  Right now, Democrats dont have any seats open like that with the exception of the possible LA-03, although I am thinking that in the end Melancon wont run because of the national environment. 
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2009, 01:34:52 pm »
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They will back to around 201-205 but not more than that.
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2009, 06:11:28 pm »
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If Obama's approval rating is 45 percent the GOP would pickup 15-20 seats. If it is 50 percent they gain about 10 seats.

For the GOP to take back the House, Obama would have to be at 35 percent or below; it's hard to find 40 seats that are even realistically winnable, much less going out and actually winning them.
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2009, 07:32:04 pm »
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Not likely. They could get back to 200 or more, but actually regaining Congress will not happen until at least 2012.
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2009, 10:17:14 pm »
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I think they'll get a net of maybe +10 or so seats. Luckily, most of the losses will be Blue Dogs and DLC types, which shouldn't really slow down the Democratic agenda that much.
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2009, 11:17:45 pm »
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Oddly enough, with Kirk, Castle, Gerlach, Justice, McHugh, etc. the Democrats are favored for the open-seat pickups thus far.  The GOP, of course, has more low-hanging fruit like Minnick, and I can only think of Melancon for them in open-seats...  am I missing anyone?  There are plenty of open seats in non-competitive districts like two in Kansas and whatnot, but just looking at opposite-party or purple districts.
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2009, 11:43:22 pm »
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Oddly enough, with Kirk, Castle, Gerlach, Justice, McHugh, etc. the Democrats are favored for the open-seat pickups thus far.  The GOP, of course, has more low-hanging fruit like Minnick, and I can only think of Melancon for them in open-seats...  am I missing anyone?  There are plenty of open seats in non-competitive districts like two in Kansas and whatnot, but just looking at opposite-party or purple districts.

NH-02 (Hodes) and PA-07 (Sestak) are possible, I suppose, but the GOP would be swimming against the current.
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2009, 10:51:15 pm »
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Oddly enough, with Kirk, Castle, Gerlach, Justice, McHugh, etc. the Democrats are favored for the open-seat pickups thus far.  The GOP, of course, has more low-hanging fruit like Minnick, and I can only think of Melancon for them in open-seats...  am I missing anyone?  There are plenty of open seats in non-competitive districts like two in Kansas and whatnot, but just looking at opposite-party or purple districts.

NH-02 (Hodes) and PA-07 (Sestak) are possible, I suppose, but the GOP would be swimming against the current.

Republicans would need a pretty strong tide to pick up either of those Dem trending seats. 
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2009, 05:16:37 pm »
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I predict that the Republicans will lose NE-02. Lee Terry is not going to last much longer.
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2009, 05:23:08 pm »
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I predict that the Republicans will lose NE-02. Lee Terry is not going to last much longer.

Why?
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2009, 06:57:58 pm »
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I predict that the Republicans will lose NE-02. Lee Terry is not going to last much longer.

Why?

He gets elected by narrower and narrower margins.
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2009, 07:04:21 pm »
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I predict that the Republicans will lose NE-02. Lee Terry is not going to last much longer.

Why?

He gets elected by narrower and narrower margins.

Not impossible but its still an R+6 district meaning any move towards the middle in 2010 in terms of movement would make this a Republican district again on the Generic level. You get a good nominee and have some good fundraising, sure its possible.
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2009, 02:55:29 pm »
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If Obama's approval rating is 45 percent the GOP would pickup 15-20 seats. If it is 50 percent they gain about 10 seats.

For the GOP to take back the House, Obama would have to be at 35 percent or below; it's hard to find 40 seats that are even realistically winnable, much less going out and actually winning them.

Basically, if the Republicans take back the House, they will probably win the presidency in the following year. Sure, you will talk about Bob Dole and Mike Dukakis...but I will simply respond with Barack Obama and Dwight Eisenhower.
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« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2009, 11:38:17 am »
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I'd say 190-200 GOP Reps elected in 2010. It's really hard to lose badly 3 cycles in a row, though in today's Republican Party anything is possible.
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2009, 02:09:42 am »
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Oddly enough, with Kirk, Castle, Gerlach, Justice, McHugh, etc. the Democrats are favored for the open-seat pickups thus far.  The GOP, of course, has more low-hanging fruit like Minnick, and I can only think of Melancon for them in open-seats...  am I missing anyone?  There are plenty of open seats in non-competitive districts like two in Kansas and whatnot, but just looking at opposite-party or purple districts.

NH-02 (Hodes) and PA-07 (Sestak) are possible, I suppose, but the GOP would be swimming against the current.

If Bryan Lentz runs for the Dems in PA-07, you would basically need Pat Meehan to not run for Lt. Gov. to make it competitve.
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« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2009, 07:56:39 am »
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I expect to gain about 50 or 60 seats, so that would put us right around 230 seats.
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2009, 11:04:57 pm »
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I expect to gain about 50 or 60 seats, so that would put us right around 230 seats.

Little early to gauge that, eh?
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2009, 11:07:14 pm »
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181-217 is quite a range. I said 171-180, but I'd have said around 185 if that were an option. The 171-180 option is probably a little more representative at least of my thinking.

Duke, 50-60 seats gained? I'd think even the most optimistic Republicans are hoping for a 30 seat gain.
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« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2009, 09:13:05 am »
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If Obama's approval rating is 45 percent the GOP would pickup 15-20 seats. If it is 50 percent they gain about 10 seats.

For the GOP to take back the House, Obama would have to be at 35 percent or below; it's hard to find 40 seats that are even realistically winnable, much less going out and actually winning them.

Basically, if the Republicans take back the House, they will probably win the presidency in the following year. Sure, you will talk about Bob Dole and Mike Dukakis...but I will simply respond with Barack Obama and Dwight Eisenhower.

To use the Barack Obama and Eisenhower examples, the party needs Eisenhowers or Obamas rather than Dukakis's and Doles. Right now the field(Romney, Palin Pawlenty) looks a lot more like Dukakis than it doe either of the winners.
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« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2009, 11:42:34 am »
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I would also like to point out that Dole came after four years of the other party's presidency... Eisenhower after 20. And 2012 would again be after four years. (Dukakis and Obama are both after eight years. But they're also not Republicans. Tongue )

Too small a sample size, o/c. But hardly meaningless.
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« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2009, 06:08:49 pm »
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I expect to gain about 50 or 60 seats, so that would put us right around 230 seats.

50-60 seats?  Which seats are those going to be? 
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« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2009, 08:37:48 pm »
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I expect them to gain about 8-14 seats, so that will put them around 185.
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« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2009, 10:19:29 pm »
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I think that these town halls are serving as a warning to many house democrats - especially the blue dogs.  If they vote for a public option/universal healthcare/single-payer government run deal, there is going to be a gigantic reckoning that will cost democrats the house and add 6 senate seats for the republicans.  However, if the healthcare bill passes without the public option and many of the more problematic aspects in the house bill - several of them are going to be saved. 

Realistically, and republicans have to be honest about this...there are going to be some seats and areas that are going to be voting democrat for awhile.  Some of these seats are not republican territory any longer - likewise, democrats will wake up one day to find several seats they thought to be safe (and when i make this argument, i refer to people waving the PVI percentages around) in republican hands for a very long time.

Though, as a personal note - two of three AZ dem house seats could get knocked off next round (Gabi "Nancy's Little Helper" Giffords and Harry Mitchell) and if they win, will probably not last beyond 2012.  Kirkpatrick will be the most difficult of the three to get rid of I think.
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