2010 house predictions

[Lief 🗽]

I think they'll get a net of maybe +10 or so seats. Luckily, most of the losses will be Blue Dogs and DLC types, which shouldn't really slow down the Democratic agenda that much.

[Lief 🗽]

Oddly enough, with Kirk, Castle, Gerlach, Justice, McHugh, etc. the Democrats are favored for the open-seat pickups thus far.  The GOP, of course, has more low-hanging fruit like Minnick, and I can only think of Melancon for them in open-seats...  am I missing anyone?  There are plenty of open seats in non-competitive districts like two in Kansas and whatnot, but just looking at opposite-party or purple districts.

NH-02 (Hodes) and PA-07 (Sestak) are possible, I suppose, but the GOP would be swimming against the current.

[Lief 🗽]

I think that these town halls are serving as a warning to many house democrats - especially the blue dogs.  If they vote for a public option/universal healthcare/single-payer government run deal, there is going to be a gigantic reckoning that will cost democrats the house and add 6 senate seats for the republicans.  However, if the healthcare bill passes without the public option and many of the more problematic aspects in the house bill - several of them are going to be saved. 

Why would people vote against the Blue Dogs for voting for a bill with a provision (the public option) that enjoys widespread public support? "You passed something I like, I'm going to vote against you!" That's now how the world works.

[Lief 🗽]

Er... pretty much every poll has shown majority (sometimes super-majority) support for a public option. Stop watching Fox, kid.

[Lief 🗽]

I was making the point that the public option, the thing that supposedly is widely hated by Americans is unpopular. It's not. At all. The Democratic health care bill (which doesn't even exist) is somewhat unpopular at the moment, but that's because 1) It doesn't exist, so it can't really be defined positively and 2) A lot of Republican scaremongering has been going on and the Democrats have only begun to refute it.

Also, if you think that "amnesty" (again, please use big people words instead of Fox/Limbaugh buzz words) is going to lose Democrats votes, obviously you weren't paying attention in 2006 or 2008. Immigration reform will help Democrats: Republicans have never won elections running on the issue, as it does not carry the same sort of weight as abortion or gay marriage or something AND the debate will give the Republicans another chance to alienate Hispanics.