2010 house predictions

[Mr.Phips]

The only way Republicans can gain more than maybe 15-20 seats is if Democrats leave a lot of Conservative seats open.  That is what killed Democrats in 1994.  They left seats open that year like FL-01, GA-08, AZ-01, FL-15, IL-11, IN-06,  MI-08, MS-01, NJ-02, OK-02, OK-04, SC-03, TN-03, TN-04, and many others that were almost guarenteed GOP pickups as soon as they opened up.  Right now, Democrats dont have any seats open like that with the exception of the possible LA-03, although I am thinking that in the end Melancon wont run because of the national environment. 

[Mr.Phips]

Oddly enough, with Kirk, Castle, Gerlach, Justice, McHugh, etc. the Democrats are favored for the open-seat pickups thus far.  The GOP, of course, has more low-hanging fruit like Minnick, and I can only think of Melancon for them in open-seats...  am I missing anyone?  There are plenty of open seats in non-competitive districts like two in Kansas and whatnot, but just looking at opposite-party or purple districts.

NH-02 (Hodes) and PA-07 (Sestak) are possible, I suppose, but the GOP would be swimming against the current.

Republicans would need a pretty strong tide to pick up either of those Dem trending seats. 

[Mr.Phips]

I expect to gain about 50 or 60 seats, so that would put us right around 230 seats.

50-60 seats?  Which seats are those going to be? 

[Mr.Phips]

I think that these town halls are serving as a warning to many house democrats - especially the blue dogs.  If they vote for a public option/universal healthcare/single-payer government run deal, there is going to be a gigantic reckoning that will cost democrats the house and add 6 senate seats for the republicans.  However, if the healthcare bill passes without the public option and many of the more problematic aspects in the house bill - several of them are going to be saved. 

Realistically, and republicans have to be honest about this...there are going to be some seats and areas that are going to be voting democrat for awhile.  Some of these seats are not republican territory any longer - likewise, democrats will wake up one day to find several seats they thought to be safe (and when i make this argument, i refer to people waving the PVI percentages around) in republican hands for a very long time.

Though, as a personal note - two of three AZ dem house seats could get knocked off next round (Gabi "Nancy's Little Helper" Giffords and Harry Mitchell) and if they win, will probably not last beyond 2012.  Kirkpatrick will be the most difficult of the three to get rid of I think.

Giffords is not going to be knocked off.  She doesnt have a credible opponent and Republicans are not even targeting her. 

[Mr.Phips]

I don't care about those Alabama districts. The 'Democrats' who win there are Republicans, most of the time. Fools like Bobby Bright.

Bright's voting record hasn't been all that bad, actually.

He has basically been another Gene Taylor.  Considering the district he is from, he needs to be. 

[Mr.Phips]

I now acknowledge that the Dems will lose either chamber of Congress, something that the Obama camp needs to acknowledge now.

I think they realize that.