2010 house predictions

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Obama's approval will be between 45-50 pc, the unemployment rate hits the 11 pc, the stimulus,which is unpopular, is the n°1 issue, COULD THE GOP win the majority in the house of representatives?

According to the cook PVI, there is about 40-50 seats who are hold by democrats but who are politically republican and conservative. Can the GOP win them? Can the GOP make his comeback and improve his score in New England in this scenario?

Its not that simple. Some of those seats are in areas that while Republican and Conservative Federally have popular incumbents that will be hard if not impossible to defeat in any environment like Gene Taylor, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, and Ben Chandler. Other seats have a history of protecting incumbents regardless of party especially some in the the South.

My predicion it the GOP will have 185 to 190 seats after 2010. If the Environment is bad enough I can see them hitting 200-205 but I don't see them getting more then 205 and thus no where near a majority. The Better the results in 2010 however, and the fewer the losses in 2012 would make it all that much easier to win the Majority in 2014.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I predict that the Republicans will lose NE-02. Lee Terry is not going to last much longer.

Why?

He gets elected by narrower and narrower margins.

Not impossible but its still an R+6 district meaning any move towards the middle in 2010 in terms of movement would make this a Republican district again on the Generic level. You get a good nominee and have some good fundraising, sure its possible.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think that these town halls are serving as a warning to many house democrats - especially the blue dogs.  If they vote for a public option/universal healthcare/single-payer government run deal, there is going to be a gigantic reckoning that will cost democrats the house and add 6 senate seats for the republicans.  However, if the healthcare bill passes without the public option and many of the more problematic aspects in the house bill - several of them are going to be saved. 

Why would people vote against the Blue Dogs for voting for a bill with a provision (the public option) that enjoys widespread public support? "You passed something I like, I'm going to vote against you!" That's now how the world works.

Yes, the public option, the public option enjoys widespread public support if you live in England and Canada - a majority (58%) of our own voters do not support it here.  And yes, if this gets passed it will cost the dems the house.

The Dems are not going to lose the House in 2010 or likely 2012 either. Our first chance comes really in 2014 and it relies on us nominating people who can win in reality, not win in your little pipe dream fanasty.