2020 Senate Predictions
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Author Topic: 2020 Senate Predictions  (Read 16972 times)
Samof94
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« Reply #50 on: October 03, 2020, 05:27:47 AM »

Doug Jones has zero chance. His opponent is a religious coach who wants more prayer in schools.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #51 on: October 08, 2020, 04:23:27 AM »

D's win AZ, CO and ME
Tossup GA R, GA S, IA and NC
Stretched seats KS, MT, SC and TX
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VirginiaAaron
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« Reply #52 on: October 14, 2020, 11:58:07 AM »

So I've just finished two Wikipedia-style county maps for my two home states: Virginia and South Carolina. Questions, comments, and criticism are welcome.





(Images made myself)
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #53 on: October 24, 2020, 02:28:59 PM »

Graham is gonna lose
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #54 on: October 27, 2020, 03:01:26 AM »

A week before election (reserve the right to change until ED) it seems that the fate of the Senate majority will be decided in 3-4 states: Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and, possibly, in Georgia runoffs. Expect Democrats to lose Alabama and hold Michigan, Republicans - to lose Arizona and Colorado, but - hold Alaska, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina and Texas (in all cases - by single digits, but - nevertheless).  So, something between 49D -51R and 51D-49R..
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #55 on: October 29, 2020, 09:09:36 PM »

So, for the races in Georgia and Louisiana, are we predicting the November 3rd results or are we predicting the final votes for each candidate to get into office?
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Kabam
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« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2020, 05:06:50 PM »

R -> D flips: Alabama
D -> R flips: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Alaska & Montana
Special election: Both Georgia races
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thumb21
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« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2020, 08:27:33 PM »



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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2020, 09:14:32 PM »

Final Senate Prediction 2020



Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 1
Tilt D: 2
Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 5
Safe R: 42

Democratic: 48 (+1)
Republican: 52 (-1)

States (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: 58.0% Tuberville, 41.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.0% Kelly, 48.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 46.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 43.0% Warnock, 25.5% Collins, 23.0% Loeffler (toss-up on 2nd place) --> 51.5% Collins, 48.5% Warnock
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 47.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 50.5% Collins, 48.5% Gideon --> 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Gideon if RCV
MI: 49.0% Peters, 48.5% James
MN: 49.5% Smith, 47.0% Lewis
MT: 53.5% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.5% Messner
NC: 50.0% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 54.0% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Maine and Michigan are the races I'm least sure about. Maine is surely a bold call - not a single poll has Collins leading - but I think she's overperforming Trump by enough in them to make this at least close.
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Pericles
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« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2020, 10:53:29 PM »

Going for this Senate map, 52 Democratic Senators.

I have a feeling that at least one of the races I have Republicans winning will end up being won by the Democrats, but in each individual race the Republican candidate is favored. I decided not to try and adjust my prediction for that.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #60 on: November 08, 2020, 09:09:45 PM »

My forecast:



Actual results:



Postmortem on my forecast:

I predicted the wrong winner in three states (IA, ME, NC), and did not expect Georgia's regular senate election to go into a runoff.  I did not predict a margin for Georgia's special election.

My most accurate states were South Carolina, Texas, and Georgia.

My biggest misses were Arkansas, where I did not expect Tom Cotton's Libertarian opponent to get over 30% of the vote, and Maine, where Collins outperformed all expectations and won a near double digit victory.  I was also inaccurate in Iowa and Montana.

Here are my predicted margins from before the election vs the actual margins as of Nov 8th, 2020. We won't know Alaska for a while, so I'll leave that one out of the equation.

South Carolina      +10 Republican     +10.3 Republican     (0.3)
Texas         +10 Republican               +9.8 Republican       (0.2)
Kansas         +7 Republican               +11.9 Republican     (4.9)
Alaska         +6 Republican                N/A
Montana      +3 Republican                +10.0 Republican     (7.0)
Georgia         +2 Republican              +1.9 Republican       (0.1)
Iowa         +0.5 Democrat                 +6.6 Republican       (7.1)
Maine         +2 Democrat                  +8.9 Republican       (10.9)
North Carolina      +4 Democrat         +1.7 Republican       (5.7)
Arizona-S      +5 Democrat                +2.6 Democrat         (2.4)
Michigan      +6 Democrat                 +1.5 Democrat         (4.5)
Minnesota      +8 Democrat               +5.3 Democrat         (2.7)
Colorado      +10 Democrat               +9.0 Democrat         (1.0)
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #61 on: November 16, 2020, 11:37:06 AM »

Alaska update...

Forecast: +6 Sullivan

Actual: +13.3 Sullivan
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #62 on: November 18, 2020, 11:58:13 PM »

Final Senate Prediction 2020



Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 1
Tilt D: 2
Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 5
Safe R: 42

Democratic: 48 (+1)
Republican: 52 (-1)

States (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: 58.0% Tuberville, 41.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.0% Kelly, 48.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 46.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 43.0% Warnock, 25.5% Collins, 23.0% Loeffler (toss-up on 2nd place) --> 51.5% Collins, 48.5% Warnock
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 47.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 50.5% Collins, 48.5% Gideon --> 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Gideon if RCV
MI: 49.0% Peters, 48.5% James
MN: 49.5% Smith, 47.0% Lewis
MT: 53.5% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.5% Messner
NC: 50.0% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 54.0% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Maine and Michigan are the races I'm least sure about. Maine is surely a bold call - not a single poll has Collins leading - but I think she's overperforming Trump by enough in them to make this at least close.

Well done!
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #63 on: November 19, 2020, 05:29:51 PM »

Everyone had NC and ME as solid D pickups, that was funny it didn't come through
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #64 on: December 06, 2020, 05:26:08 AM »

GA is leaning D now
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #65 on: December 07, 2020, 05:01:19 PM »

Final Senate Prediction 2020



Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 1
Tilt D: 2
Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 5
Safe R: 42

Democratic: 48 (+1)
Republican: 52 (-1)

States (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: 58.0% Tuberville, 41.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.0% Kelly, 48.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 46.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 43.0% Warnock, 25.5% Collins, 23.0% Loeffler (toss-up on 2nd place) --> 51.5% Collins, 48.5% Warnock
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 47.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 50.5% Collins, 48.5% Gideon --> 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Gideon if RCV
MI: 49.0% Peters, 48.5% James
MN: 49.5% Smith, 47.0% Lewis
MT: 53.5% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.5% Messner
NC: 50.0% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 54.0% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Maine and Michigan are the races I'm least sure about. Maine is surely a bold call - not a single poll has Collins leading - but I think she's overperforming Trump by enough in them to make this at least close.

My bias (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: D+3.5
AK: D+3.5
AZ: D+0.5
CO: R+2
GA: R+2.5 pre runoff
GA-S: lol*
IA: D+2
KS: D+1
ME: D+6.5
MI: R+1
MN: R+2.5
MT: D+3
NH: R+5.5
NC: D+0.5
SC: D+1.5
TX: D+3

On average: D+1 (not including GA-S)

I overall underestimated Republicans in red states even after all the crap I got for saying AL, MT, KS, SC, and IA weren't going to be close in the end. My biggest error was Maine for Susan Collins, which I think was a shock for everybody the sheer margin. Ticket splitting is alive and well in Maine, as it is in New Hampshire where Shaheen landslided. I expected both Collins and Shaheen to well overperform their states presidential vote, but to the extent they both did was very impressive.

*I knew the Georgia special race was going to be a mess where a runoff was inevitable, so I obviously didn't predict that very well.
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