2010 senate prediction

[nhmagic]

Updated Map:

Boxer will win California, no matter who the nominee is.  I flirted with it for a second, but our wave will not be that strong.

To make up however, Lincoln will lose

I am awaiting Hoeven's announcment.  The moment he decides for or against, or the longer he takes, the soon I will make a change or keep the same.  If Hoeven jumps in he wins.

We lose Missouri.

Total Net Pickup of 6-7 seats.
Senate Makeup: 2 I, 47 R, 51 D or 2 I, 46 R, 52 D

[Ronnie]

I think we would win MO before IL or even PA.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

R pickups:

AR, CT, DE, NV

D pickups:

MO, NH, OH

Too close to call:

CO, PA

Dems aren't going to win anywhere in the South.

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Pickup
MO,OH
Democratic Retention
CA,HI,IL,IN,MD,NY,NY,ND,OR,PA,VT,WA,and WI.
Tossup.
CT,DE,NV,and NH.
Republican Pickup
AR,CO
Republican Retention.
AL,AK,AZ,FL,GA,ID,KS,KY,LA,NC,OK,SC,SD,and UT

[retromike22]

GOP + 1 after Dems pick up NH, OH, KY, and MO.  GOP picks up NV, CO, CT, AK, and DE.

[Devilman88]

GOP + 1 after Dems pick up NH, OH, KY, and MO.  GOP picks up NV, CO, CT, AK, and DE.

Change KY and NH.

[Jayhawker]

Some thoughts...
Obama's approval ratings will hover between 45-50% in 2010, and will be sitting at 49% on election night.
Ohio - Democrats have some good candidates, and I just see the momentum shifting their way on this one. Things could change though.
Missouri - With Obama's approval ratings in a freefall here, Roy Blunt should be able to tie Carnahan to Obama, and pull out a victory.
Arkansas - This will be interesting. In the end, I think many ticked off Democrats will do a protest vote for the Green Party candidate, and the Republican candidate successfully ties Lincoln to Obama.
Pennyslvania - Toomey beats Specter. A great matchup, and will be a fun race to watch.
New Hampshire - Alloyte (sp?) is doing well so far. Hopefully she can get the money in there to retain the seat.
Indiana - I'll be honest, I would like to see some polling done here, especially Bayh's approvals. I have a feeling they aren't as high as most would think. Bayh has relied on the rural vote for years, and I think he will struggle with it in 2010. Republicans have a likeable and smart candidate in Stutzman, though I doubt he can pull it off in the end. Daniels could beat Bayh though, and Pence would make it interesting.

[Vepres]

Republicans take CO, CT, DE, PA, and maybe NV, IL, and AR  if they're very lucky. So, 44 - 47, I suspect on the lower end atm.

[nkpatel1279]

CO and DE are the only two vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats likely to fall to the Republicans.
CO is a swing state- Bennett-D is an appointed US Senator with low name recognition and Republicans have a top tier candidate Lt Governor Jane Norton. During neutral years-Appointed backbench US Senators like Bennet-CO usually go down.
DE-is a unique case. DE is a blue state- the Democratic nominee- AG Beau Biden is the son of the sitting VP and popular former 6 term US Senator. However the Republican Candidate is an 11 time Popular Statewide Elected Official. Mike Castle served 1 term as Lt Governor,2 terms as Governor and 9 terms as At Large US House Member since 1980. If the race is just between Castle vs Biden Jr. Castle wins but if the race is between Castle vs Joe and Beau Biden- the race becomes a tossup and Biden Jr can give Castle the race of his life.
Dems will hold onto AR(Lincoln-D)-due to Republicans nominating a wingnut. CT(Dodd-D)due to Dodd's seniority status. IL(OPEN-Burris-D)-due to President Obama's influence and the Daley Machine. NV(Reid-D) due to Reid's seniority status and GOP nominee being unacceptable and PA(Specter-D) due to Liberal fears of Toomey being to conservative.
On the Republican side. Republicans are likely to lose MO and OH due to weak unpopular Republican candidates- Roy Blunt-MO and Rob Portman-OH who have ties to Bush43 and Tom Delay. The open NH and KY seat are pure tossups. Republican incumbents LA(Vitter) and NC(Burr) can face surprise defeats.

[Senator Ben]

Democrats: 58 (-)
Republicans: 40 (-)
Independents: 2 (-)

[Swedish Cheese]

Republicans are starting to look confident I see

I'm still pretty sure that we'll pick up Missouri and Ohio, and I still see no reason why the Dems wouldn't be able to pull out a victory in New Hampshire.

Castle will make Delaware really close, but I still think Biden can pull out a small victory. (But then it might just be me hoping)

Lincoln is starting to look really weak in Arkansas. Her bad judgement on the Health Care issue, and the fact that Republicans will try to tie her to Obama will make her vulnurable. At this point I think she'll lose.

Reid... is there any good Republican alternatives yet? I still think he'll make it. If he don't... well I wouldn't miss him too much honestly.

No Republican will win Obama's Senate seat. Kirk might make it close, but in the end he won't win.

I'm worried about Bennet, but there's more than one year until election. He has plenty of time left to build himself a reputation in Colorado, and a lot of things will happen during that time that might swing things in his favour. I think he'll make it.

I still think Republicans will claim Conneticut.

Pennsylvania is all up to the Democrats in the state. Are they stupid enough to nominate that disgusting little worm Specter, Toomey has a good shot at winning. If they nominate Sestak, we win.



This is far from over though. I think much of 2010 will depend on the Health Reform, and voters' reaction to it. This might change drasticly in favour of either party. 

 

   

[ChrisJG777]

Right now, I expect multiple races to be fairly close (I'm looking at you Delaware, Illinois, Nevada and Connecticut), but on the whole I'm willing to hedge my bets on a net break-even.

[OC]

I don't think Dems are so much have to worry about PA, AR, and IL, those are must win states for us, I think DE, CO, NV, and CT are states where a couple could defect.  I would be happy with 61 votes in the Senate.

[nkpatel1279]

Democrats will keep AR(Lincoln-D) due to the weakness of the state Republican party in Arkansas. Lincoln-AR may be a thorn on our side but she is a hell lot better than whoever the Republicans nominate. IL(OPEN-Obama/Burris-D)- blue state-Obama's former seat due to demographic favoring Democrats and Obama's influence will help Giannoulias-D.. NV(Reid-D)-due to Reid's clout. Electing Reid is better for the state than a backbench freshman Republican. PA(Specter-R) due to Toomey's rightwing extremism. CT(Dodd-D) and DE(OPEN-Biden/Kaufman-D) will be too close to call but Democrats will hold onto those seats due to Dodd's seniority clout and VP Joe Biden's influence and Beau Biden's potential campaign skills. The only seat Democrats will lose in Colorado- Bennett is an appointed US Senator with low name recognition- he is facing a tough primary campaign against Andrew Romanoff and general election campaign against ex Lt Governor Jane Norton. On the Republican side- Republicans will lose MO and OH due to unpopularity of the GOP candidates. keep NH- due to Ayotte's percieve moderate image, and KY- due to demographics. as well as FL,KS,LA,and NC.

[OC]

I don't know about KY, because it has lost population and the Republicans can win the governorship back in 2011, I would just stick to MO, Oh, and NH and CO for now and then worry about NV and KY switching.

[retromike22]

Newest Prediction:



Republicans: +2 seats

Democrats pick up Ohio and Missouri; Republicans pick up Arkansas, Connecticut, Colorado, and Nevada.

Democrats hold on to Delaware, and Republicans hold on to New Hampshire and Kentucky.

[Lіef]

New prediction.

Dem pickups: MO, OH
Rep pickups: DE, AR, CO

Democrats: 57
Republicans: 41
Independents: 2

[OC]

Both parties evenly split

[Vosem]

The Republicans pick up 7 seats in 2010:

Arkansas (Gilbert Baker)
Colorado (Jane Norton)
Connecticut (Rob Simmons)
Delaware (Mike Castle)
Illinois (Mark Kirk)
Nevada (Sue Lowden)
Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey)

for a Senate with a Democratic majority of 53-47.

Other freshmen:

Florida (Charlie Crist)
Ohio (Rob Portman)
Kansas (Jerry Moran)
Kentucky (Rand Paul)
Missouri (Roy Blunt)
New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte)

Not a single Dem freshman, though Carnahan and Giannoulias come close.

Too lazy to make map

[OC]

Joe Sestak will beat Arlen Specter turncoat, pro war Dem in the primary and Giannoulias will beat Mark Kirk.  I think PA and IL is leaning our way.

[Vosem]

Joe Sestak will beat Arlen Specter turncoat, pro war Dem in the primary and Giannoulias will beat Mark Kirk.  I think PA and IL is leaning our way.

Specter has the support of the White House. I wouldn't count Sestak out, but Specter has the advantage.

In PA, polls show Toomey ahead of Sestak, and either ahead or tied with Specter. That sounds like a Republican victory. Illinois is just pure tossup.

The reason I count both as Republican pickups is that Obama's approval rating - and that of Democrats in general - looks unlikely to improve in 2010 (though I don't foresee 2009's 20% drop-off). Therefore, I think races which are currently close will probably go Republican come November.

[OC]

I think that the economy will not stay above 10 percent and gradually improves to 8 percent by election day the Dems will take moderate hits.

[hcallega]

Both sides pickup 3 seats, so no net switch.

[Jayhawker]

Will include Massachusetts. Also, D.C. is NY Special election.

Republican pickups - North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, Pennyslvania, Deleware, Arkansas, Massachusetts
Democrat pickups - ...

Closest States: Missouri, Illinois

[OC]

Mizzouri was never a lean takeaway. Blunt will win.