2010 senate prediction

[DownWithTheLeft]

Democrats 63

Republicans 37

Very close in New Hampshire, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio

I don't think a major party has ever not made gains in 3 straight cycles

[OC]

The Dems are optimistic because this is the third election cycle where there are major retirements.  TN was in 2006, 2008 was NM and VA, and now this election cycle. I think +2 Dem gains are more realistic, but I like the Dems chances.

[xavier110]

Very early prediction:



CO, NV, OH, KY, NH, DE, CT, NC, PA would be my races to watch

[biggzcorey]

GOP seats:

Missouri will go democratic

Ohio will go democratic

Kentucky is a tossup, the GOP lucked out when Bunning decided to retire so they have a good chance of keeping the seat, but it will still be close especially if Mongiardo gets nominated

Florida would have been quite a race if Crist had decided not to run, but since he is entering the race he will win, no question about it

The GOP got lucky in New Hampshire because Kelly Ayotte is running, this one will be a close one, but i'm guessing since the dems have taken both house seats, the governors seat, a senate seat, the state legislature, and the state went to Obama by 10 points last year, the dems have a good shot of taking this one too

In Louisiana, David Vitter will more than likely keep his seat. Even though he is a total hypocrite and an admitted felon (busted for prostitution, while running on family values) Louisiana seems to like their elected officials that way. The state is trending more and more red every election cycle, so he is probably safe unless the dems can field a top tier centrist candidate (Charlie Melancon or Mitch Landrieu)

North Carolina could very well go democratic. Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan at the same time as Beverly Perdue was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state, plus he is not nearly as popular as Dole was when she ran. If the dems can field a good candidate, then they have a great chance of taking this seat, fortunatly for Burr they havent found one.

Texas has been mentioned because Rick Perry and Kay Baily Hutchinson will have a bloody primary for TX governor (even though i'm a dem, I will vote for Hutchinson in the primary because Perry is idiotic and embarrassing). Hutchinson will probably win the primary, setting up a special election. If that happens the only hope that dems have of winning the seat is if Houston mayor Bill White runs, but they will probably keep the seat anyway.

Dem seats:

Chris Dodd is in trouble, he is shown in polls to be heavily trailing Rob Simmons, and to make matters worse he has been diagnosed with cancer. If he runs, he might be able to keep his seat anyway because he can raise a lot of money and Connecticut is a very blue state. If he retires (which is what he should do), the Dems will keep the seat with a decent candidate. If not, the GOP has a great chance of getting this seat.

Delaware is a very blue state and Biden's son will be running for his father's old seat. Mike Castle could run for his congressional seat, he could run for the senate seat, or he could retire. He is 70 years old and he isn't raising much money, but if he runs it will be a close rase.

Roland Burris is retiring and is now a place filler for Obama's seat. Moderate republican Mark Kirk is running, but the dems will keep the seat because it's such a blue state.

Arlen Spector will run for re-election as a democrat and win the primary and the general

The GOP could win Bennet's seat in Colorado, but no one worth anything is running, so he will probably keep his seat

There have been rumors that the GOP is gunning for Harry Reid's seat, they won't get it

Dems:63
GOP:37

[DownWithTheLeft]

Ryan Frazier is worth nothing? Lolz

[biggzcorey]

Ryan Frazier is worth nothing? Lolz

not really, a former congressman and former speaker of the Colorado house would beat an Aurora city councilman in a primary, plus he's barely 30, way too young for a senate seat. Not to mention running a black republican would help more in a state that actually had black people in it.

[biggzcorey]

Democrats 63

Republicans 37

Very close in New Hampshire, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio

I don't think a major party has ever not made gains in 3 straight cycles

Dems did it in both houses in 1930,1932,1934,1936, and on a smaller scale in 1986,1988, and 1990

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I wonder how likely it is that both parties stay where they are in 2010 (in other words, any gains made by the one party will be canceled out by the gains of the other party).

[InsaneTrollLogic]

I wonder how likely it is that both parties stay where they are in 2010 (in other words, any gains made by the one party will be canceled out by the gains of the other party).

Seems like a reasonable possibility.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I wonder how likely it is that both parties stay where they are in 2010 (in other words, any gains made by the one party will be canceled out by the gains of the other party).

Seems like a reasonable possibility.

Indeed--I wondered about that possibility because on the one side we have people who think that the Democrats will make gains, and on the other side we have people who predict that the Republicans will make gains. With that in mind, surely there is a chance that each party will cancel out the gains made by the other party, and thus the senate stays in favor of the Democrats 60-40, special elections/appointments aside.

[biggzcorey]

I wonder how likely it is that both parties stay where they are in 2010 (in other words, any gains made by the one party will be canceled out by the gains of the other party).

Seems like a reasonable possibility.

Indeed--I wondered about that possibility because on the one side we have people who think that the Democrats will make gains, and on the other side we have people who predict that the Republicans will make gains. With that in mind, surely there is a chance that each party will cancel out the gains made by the other party, and thus the senate stays in favor of the Democrats 60-40, special elections/appointments aside.

I predict that the dems will make senate gains, but the GOP will make house gains

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to.
AR- Lincoln-D
CA- Boxer-D
CO- Bennet-D wins a full first term.
DE- if Castle does not run.- Beau Biden-D
HI- Inouye-D
IL- Giannoulias-D
IN-Bayh-D
MD- Mikulski-D
NV- Reid-D
NYA/B- Schumer and Gillibrand.
ND- Dorgan-D
OR- Wyden-D
VT- Leahy-D
WA- Murray-D
WI- Feingold-D
Democrats are likely to lose
CT- Dodd is trailing Simmons- if Dodd steps aside- Democratic retention.
DE- if Castle runs- Tossup.
PA- it depends on how the Democratic primary turnsout.
Republican seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- Shelby-R
AK- Murkowski-R
AZ- McCain-R
FL- Crist-R
GA- Isakson-R
ID- Crapo-R
IA- Grassley-R
KS- Moran/Tiahrt-R
KY- Grayson-R- by a narrow margin.
LA- Vitter-R
NC- Burr-R by a narrow margin.
OK- Coburn-R
SC- DeMint-R
SD- Thune-R
TX- Republicans win in Special Election.
UT- Bennett-R

Republicans will lose
MO- Carnahan-D
NH- Hodes-D
OH- Fisher/Brunner-D

KY and NC will be the wave US Senate Elections.

NC will be the biggest shocker race.

[FloridaRepublican]

Democrats 63

Republicans 37

Very close in New Hampshire, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio

I don't think a major party has ever not made gains in 3 straight cycles

Dems did it in both houses in 1930,1932,1934,1936, and on a smaller scale in 1986,1988, and 1990

He was talking about gains period.  Not net gains.  Republicans have not made gains period since 2004 in the Senate; in 2006, no republican gains whatsoever in BOTH houses (a first); in 2008, no republican gains whatsoever except in the house.  So if the Republicans fail to make any gains period, this will be the first time in history that a major party has successfully defended ALL of its seats for the entire senate election cycle.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

GOP seats:

Missouri will go democratic

Ohio will go democratic

Kentucky is a tossup, the GOP lucked out when Bunning decided to retire so they have a good chance of keeping the seat, but it will still be close especially if Mongiardo gets nominated

Florida would have been quite a race if Crist had decided not to run, but since he is entering the race he will win, no question about it

The GOP got lucky in New Hampshire because Kelly Ayotte is running, this one will be a close one, but i'm guessing since the dems have taken both house seats, the governors seat, a senate seat, the state legislature, and the state went to Obama by 10 points last year, the dems have a good shot of taking this one too

In Louisiana, David Vitter will more than likely keep his seat. Even though he is a total hypocrite and an admitted felon (busted for prostitution, while running on family values) Louisiana seems to like their elected officials that way. The state is trending more and more red every election cycle, so he is probably safe unless the dems can field a top tier centrist candidate (Charlie Melancon or Mitch Landrieu)

North Carolina could very well go democratic. Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan at the same time as Beverly Perdue was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state, plus he is not nearly as popular as Dole was when she ran. If the dems can field a good candidate, then they have a great chance of taking this seat, fortunatly for Burr they havent found one.

Texas has been mentioned because Rick Perry and Kay Baily Hutchinson will have a bloody primary for TX governor (even though i'm a dem, I will vote for Hutchinson in the primary because Perry is idiotic and embarrassing). Hutchinson will probably win the primary, setting up a special election. If that happens the only hope that dems have of winning the seat is if Houston mayor Bill White runs, but they will probably keep the seat anyway.

Dem seats:

Chris Dodd is in trouble, he is shown in polls to be heavily trailing Rob Simmons, and to make matters worse he has been diagnosed with cancer. If he runs, he might be able to keep his seat anyway because he can raise a lot of money and Connecticut is a very blue state. If he retires (which is what he should do), the Dems will keep the seat with a decent candidate. If not, the GOP has a great chance of getting this seat.

Delaware is a very blue state and Biden's son will be running for his father's old seat. Mike Castle could run for his congressional seat, he could run for the senate seat, or he could retire. He is 70 years old and he isn't raising much money, but if he runs it will be a close rase.

Roland Burris is retiring and is now a place filler for Obama's seat. Moderate republican Mark Kirk is running, but the dems will keep the seat because it's such a blue state.

Arlen Spector will run for re-election as a democrat and win the primary and the general

The GOP could win Bennet's seat in Colorado, but no one worth anything is running, so he will probably keep his seat

There have been rumors that the GOP is gunning for Harry Reid's seat, they won't get it

Dems:63
GOP:37

You left out when considering NC that Perdue has a 25% approval rating. Former Governor Easley has a grand Jury practially waiting for him in Raliegh. There have also been a wave of other scandals in this state from several Dems over the last 6 years. Obama is now in Negative territory in Approvals here as well. Burr is not as weak as many people claim he is.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Ryan Frazier is worth nothing? Lolz

not really, a former congressman and former speaker of the Colorado house would beat an Aurora city councilman in a primary, plus he's barely 30, way too young for a senate seat. Not to mention running a black republican would help more in a state that actually had black people in it.

What an ass. Colorado has both state houses led by African-Americans, and voted Obama, even hosting the convention. They are not afraid of electing black Americans to positions of power.

[Senator Kalwejt]

Many things can of course change

AL: Safe R
AK: Safe R
AZ: Safe R
AR: Safe D
CA: Safe D
CO: Tossup
CT: Lean R
DE: Lean D
FL: Safe R
GA: Safe R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Lean D
IN: Safe D
IO: Safe R
KS: Lean R
LA: Tossup
MD: Safe D
MO: Lean D
NV: Lean D
NH: Tossup
NY: Safe D
NY2: Lean D
NC: Tossup
ND: Safe D
OK: Lean D
PA: Lean D
SC: Safe R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WI: Safe D

[biggzcorey]

Ryan Frazier is worth nothing? Lolz

not really, a former congressman and former speaker of the Colorado house would beat an Aurora city councilman in a primary, plus he's barely 30, way too young for a senate seat. Not to mention running a black republican would help more in a state that actually had black people in it.

What an ass. Colorado has both state houses led by African-Americans, and voted Obama, even hosting the convention. They are not afraid of electing black Americans to positions of power.

It has nothing to do with me being an ass, the GOP runs black republicans because they feel that they will have more appeal than just another old white guy (Ever wonder why Mike Steele is head of the RNC, quite a step up from a former Lt Gov wouldn't you say). I never said anything about Colorado disliking the notion of having minorities as elected officials (they also had a Hispanic senator). I'm simply stating that the appeal to make more blacks vote republican in a republicn primary and general election would work better in a state like Maryland (29 % black), Michigan (14%), New York (17%), Florida (16%), or Georgia (30%), as opposed to Colorado which is 4% black

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html

[DownWithTheLeft]

New prediction:



GOP +6

[OC]

The GOP is likely to gain 1 to 3 seats in the best case scenario, I doubt that map is likely.

[nkpatel1279]

With the exception of 1986,1990,1996 and 2006 and 2008- 1 or 2 Democratic Incumbents lost re-election.
1988- Jack Melcher(MT), 1992- Fowler(GA),and Sanford (NC), 1994- Wofford(PA),and Sasser(TN), 1998 - Mosely Braun (IL), 2000 - Robb (VA). 2002  Cleland -GA ,Carnahan-MO, and 2004- Daschle- SD.

Chris Dodd- CT will probally be the only Democratic Incumbent that loses his seat but it will be a narrow margin like the Daschle/Thune race.  All other vulnerable or so called vulnerable Democratic incumbents- Lincoln-AR,Boxer-CA, Bennett-CO, Reid-NV,Gillibrand-NY,Dorgan-ND if Hoevan runs, Specter/Sestak-PA, Murray-WA and Feingold-WI will get re-elected.

That leaves us DE and IL.
DE becomes a Tossup if Castle runs- other than that - Safe Democratic.
IL is going to be like the 1996 NJ US Senate Race between Bob Torricelli and Dick Zimmer- an open seat Senate Race to replace Bill Bradley. It was the most closely watched and expensive US Senate Race in history- Despite all of that Torrecelli won by a 10point margin.

On the GOP side. The open seats in MO,OH,and NH and possibly KY are like the 2008 US Senate Races in VA,NM,and CO- Strong Democratic Candidates vs Weak GOP Candidates.

FL is Republican because of Charlie Crist.  KS is a Republican State- Had Sebelius ran it would have been a Tossup at Best. 

Regarding Vulnerable GOP incumbents- NC- Burr- It is a Curse Seat- Obama's narrow victory, Hagan's upset victory over Dole- Burr is a first term who won in 2004 because of GWBush's coattails.

The biggest upset will be Vitter-LA losing.

[Senator Ben]

DWTL, why would Dorgan lose now?  He survived 2004, and Hoeven is not going to run against him; who'll take him out?

[Ronnie]

To counter Kalwejt, here are my predictions

AL: Safe R
AK: Safe R
AZ: Safe R
AR: Likely D
CA: Likely D
CO: Tossup
CT: Tossup
DE: Safe D, if Castle runs: Lean R
FL: Safe R
GA: Safe R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Lean D
IN: Safe D
IA: Safe R (if Grassley runs)
KS: Safe R
KY: Lean R
LA: Likely R
MD: Safe D
MO: Tossup
NV: Tossup
NH: Tossup
NY: Safe D
NY2: Likely D
NC: Likely R
ND: Likely D
OK: Safe R
PA: Tossup
SC: Safe R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WI: Safe D

[nkpatel1279]

DWTL, why would Dorgan lose now?  He survived 2004, and Hoeven is not going to run against him; who'll take him out?

Daschle lost in 2004 because of George W. Bush's coattails- Bush carried SD by a 20 point margin and Daschle was running against John Thune- who was a popular former At Large US House Member of South Dakota who just narrowly lost the race for US Senate in 2002 against Tim Johnson.
Dorgan won in 2004 with a sacrificial lamb GOP challenger. Regarding the 2010 race against Hoeven. Neither Hoeven nor Dorgan have any Presidential coattails like Thune had in 2004.

[Senator Ben]

Neither Hoeven nor Dorgan have any Presidential coattails like Thune had in 2004.

That makes no sense.

[Jayhawker]

Since polls have changed, I'll make another guess on the map...



Some thoughts:
Deleware- Depends on whether or not Castle runs. A close election, though
Nevada- Republicans will pull it together and nominate someone to defeat the unpopular Reid
North Dakota- Hoeven will end up running, and the results will be similar to SD in `04
Arkanas- Could potentially become competitive, if the Republicans find a good candidate
Illinois- Polls will show this close for a while, but it will come home to the Democrats in the end
New York- Pataki could beat Gillibrand, he really could. That will be a fun race to watch
Pennyslvania- There will be a bitter Democratic primary, but in the end, Specter will go on to barely defeat Toomey, in another close race.

Overall, Democrats really lucked out that they don't have as many seats to defend as the Republicans. If Senate elections were every 4 years instead of 2, and the `06 class was up for re-election, Republicans would probably come close to taking a majority in the Senate.