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| | |-+  2010 senate prediction
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Poll
Question: How many seats will the GOP have?
<35   -2 (2%)
36-40   -26 (26.5%)
41-45   -40 (40.8%)
46-50   -24 (24.5%)
>50   -6 (6.1%)
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Total Voters: 97

Author Topic: 2010 senate prediction  (Read 33273 times)
Farage
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« on: July 16, 2009, 09:45:52 am »
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If Obama's approval will be between 45-50 pc, the unemployment rate hits the 11 pc, the stimulus,which is unpopular, is the n1 issue, COULD THE GOP win the majority in the senate or at least win seats?
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Farage
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2009, 10:07:31 am »
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Schumer wins in NY but Pataki won agains Gillibrand

Composition of the senate:
Dems -51
GOP - 47
I- 2
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2009, 10:36:18 am »
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Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2009, 10:43:59 am »
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Too early, ask again in a few months.

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Farage
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2009, 12:30:01 pm »
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Too early, ask again in a few months.

Well it's just a scenario.
IMO if Obama and the democratic congress aren't successfull, the GOP could win back the senate in 2012.It will be really likely for the GOP to gain seats.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2009, 04:14:20 pm by Elvis Republican »Logged
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2009, 02:22:11 pm »
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Too early, ask again in a few months.

Well it's just a scenario.
IMO if Obama and the democratic congress aren't successfull, the GOP could win back the senate in 2012.It will be really positive for the GOP to gain seats.

How old are you?
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Farage
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2009, 02:34:57 pm »
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Too early, ask again in a few months.

Well it's just a scenario.
IMO if Obama and the democratic congress aren't successfull, the GOP could win back the senate in 2012.It will be really positive for the GOP to gain seats.

How old are you?


16. Why?
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2009, 04:16:31 pm »
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Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

who are they running in WI anyway?


we're still waiting for formal challengers to emerge in several states, but I think an overly cautious prediction as of now might be for the GOP to pick up something like CT or IL, and for the Democrats to pick up MO and either NH or OH.
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2009, 04:26:17 pm »
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Too early, ask again in a few months.

Well it's just a scenario.
IMO if Obama and the democratic congress aren't successfull, the GOP could win back the senate in 2012.It will be really positive for the GOP to gain seats.

How old are you?


16. Why?

to lose, what, 11 seats and gain 0 in a year where the Democrats are largely on the offensive is just ridiculous, that's why he asked.  How many seats is the GOP even targeting in the most fortunate of scenarios?

obviously 2012 could be far more brutal than 2010 for the Democrats, considering the number of potentially vulnerable Democrats up for reelection. 

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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2009, 05:48:16 pm »
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41-45, but it's still early.
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2009, 06:16:31 pm »
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Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

who are they running in WI anyway?


we're still waiting for formal challengers to emerge in several states, but I think an overly cautious prediction as of now might be for the GOP to pick up something like CT or IL, and for the Democrats to pick up MO and either NH or OH.

What about KY?
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2009, 06:34:10 pm »
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Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

How would Russell Feingold lose in 2010 considering his approval ratings?

And all these predictions assume that the Republican party doesn't die like the Whigs.
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2009, 07:05:55 pm »
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Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

How would Russell Feingold lose in 2010 considering his approval ratings?

And all these predictions assume that the Republican party doesn't die like the Whigs.

The assumption that the Republican Party will die like the Whigs is as bad as Elvis Republican thinking we can regain the Senate in 2010. The Whigs were a National Party evenly split between an Abolitionist northern wing and pro-slavery southern wing. The GOP divide is not so even, its more like a 70-30 split between conservatives and moderates and its becoming less and less national. A better comparison would be the Federalists, I don't know who keeps coming up with the Whig comparison, but they need there head examined.

The GOP will in the best case scenario have about 41-44 seats. Right now I see us losing MO; narrowly holding NC, KY, and LA; narrowly winning CT and narrowly losing in PA and ILL. I see OH and NH as toss-ups. I also see seats in NV, and CO as being potentially competative provided we find a candidate or the guy we got turns out to be a really good candidate. Lastly I see us easily holding open seats in FL and KS.
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2009, 08:11:19 pm »
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Schumer wins in NY but Pataki won agains Gillibrand

Composition of the senate:
Dems -51
GOP - 47
I- 2

A Republican is not winning statewide in New York(unless its against David Paterson) and Toomey is not winning in PA first of all.  Second, a Republican is not winning Illinois unless they are running against Roland Burris.  Same with Delaware unless Castle runs(he isnt raising much money). 
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Farage
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2009, 04:23:32 am »
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Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

How would Russell Feingold lose in 2010 considering his approval ratings?

And all these predictions assume that the Republican party doesn't die like the Whigs.

The assumption that the Republican Party will die like the Whigs is as bad as Elvis Republican thinking we can regain the Senate in 2010. The Whigs were a National Party evenly split between an Abolitionist northern wing and pro-slavery southern wing. The GOP divide is not so even, its more like a 70-30 split between conservatives and moderates and its becoming less and less national. A better comparison would be the Federalists, I don't know who keeps coming up with the Whig comparison, but they need there head examined.

The GOP will in the best case scenario have about 41-44 seats. Right now I see us losing MO; narrowly holding NC, KY, and LA; narrowly winning CT and narrowly losing in PA and ILL. I see OH and NH as toss-ups. I also see seats in NV, and CO as being potentially competative provided we find a candidate or the guy we got turns out to be a really good candidate. Lastly I see us easily holding open seats in FL and KS.

I never said 2010 I said 2012 or maybe 2014 ... or never.2010 is IMPOSSIBLE my map was the best map possible for the gop the worst is the gop losing 5-6 seats ...
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Farage
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2009, 04:24:46 am »
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Too early, ask again in a few months.

Well it's just a scenario.
IMO if Obama and the democratic congress aren't successfull, the GOP could win back the senate in 2012.It will be really positive for the GOP to gain seats.

How old are you?


16. Why?

to lose, what, 11 seats and gain 0 in a year where the Democrats are largely on the offensive is just ridiculous, that's why he asked.  How many seats is the GOP even targeting in the most fortunate of scenarios?

obviously 2012 could be far more brutal than 2010 for the Democrats, considering the number of potentially vulnerable Democrats up for reelection. 


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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2009, 09:01:57 am »
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Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

who are they running in WI anyway?
I have no idea, its just a weird inkling two years out Tongue, Feingold never wins by huge margins and we could be looking at a George Allen type situation
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2009, 09:23:12 am »
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Democrat pick-ups in MO, OH, KY (and hold both NY seats, the special election seat would be D40% on the map)
Republican pick-up in CT

Delaware made on the assumption that Castle doesn't run
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« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2009, 11:44:02 am »
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auburntiger
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« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2009, 12:22:10 pm »
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My Predcitions: GOP net gain of 1

MIke Castle wins the Delaware seat.
Ryan Frazier is nominated and defeats Bennett by an extremely close margin.
Arkansas is the upset seat.

Dems gain MIssouri
Dems gain New Hampshire, which completes their dominance on the NH political landscape. It's hard to imagine such a political seismic shift than the one going on in NH. Just in 2002, the GOP held every statewide office. Just wow.

Ohio and North Carolina will be the closest seats followed by Louisiana, Illinois, and hopefully Nevada to force Reid to spend huge $$$.
All this talk about Connecticut and New York is wishful thinking.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2009, 12:31:32 pm by auburntiger »Logged

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« Reply #20 on: July 17, 2009, 07:33:03 pm »
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Not likely. They could get back to 45 or more, but actually regaining Congress will not happen until at least 2012.
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« Reply #21 on: July 17, 2009, 08:21:06 pm »
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30%'s indicate takeovers of any margin
40% indicates narrow holds
50% Strong but not Solid Holds
60% and up indicate Solid Holds

Dems narrowly hold CO, NV, PA, and ILL. GOP narrowly hold NH, OH, NC, KY, and LA. Dem pick up MO by 15 points and GOP picks up CT by less then 5%. GOP holds KBH's seat special but the margin isn't as solid same for the Dems in DE. Everything else is safe/solid.
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« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2009, 10:14:50 pm »
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Something like this.

Dem pickups: MO, KY, OH, NH
Rep pickups: DE

Democrats: 61
Republicans: 37
Independents: 2
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« Reply #23 on: July 19, 2009, 10:24:52 am »
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I love how confident (and accurate) everyone is that Missouri is gonna flip seats Smiley yay red white and blue!

(Haven't slept all night. Apologize for the loopiness, or something like that).
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« Reply #24 on: July 22, 2009, 02:59:03 pm »
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If the Republicans even take back a single house of Congress by 2012, its because God himself really is a Republican.....AND our country has been damaged beyond repair and is taking water.
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