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Poll
Question: How many seats will the GOP have?
<35   -2 (2.1%)
36-40   -26 (26.8%)
41-45   -40 (41.2%)
46-50   -23 (23.7%)
>50   -6 (6.2%)
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Total Voters: 96

Author Topic: 2010 senate prediction  (Read 32381 times)
OC
olawakandi
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« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2009, 03:05:50 pm »
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If the Republicans even take back a single house of Congress by 2012, its because God himself really is a Republican.....AND our country has been damaged beyond repair and is taking water.


I wouldn't say that, I would say Young people won't turn out as much as they did in 2008 perhaps being disillusioned by the bad economy and the ongoing war in Afghanistan and military involvment in Iran.  Under 35 year olds will have been disillusioned, not by any act by GOD, persay.

I would say Senate of course would be the most likely to fall with the most being Dems being from blue-collar republican areas like Casey, McCaskill, Webb and Tester.

I am personally not a fan of Dems like Casey and Specter who come from those areas.  If at all it means a primary would mean spending more money than it has to, then do it. We need people like Joe Sestak to stand up to DINO like Specter and Casey.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2009, 03:23:22 pm by WEB Dubois »Logged
JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #26 on: July 24, 2009, 02:16:42 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.






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« Reply #27 on: July 24, 2009, 02:32:13 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.








LOL that's extremely wishful thinking. Democrats winning Kansas and Connecticut?  Wow
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #28 on: July 24, 2009, 02:35:20 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.







Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.
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JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #29 on: July 24, 2009, 03:13:58 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.







Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.

Of course you think that "Bias Republican"
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« Reply #30 on: July 24, 2009, 03:14:31 pm »
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The maps of NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state.
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Clearly the solution is to privatize presidential elections.

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« Reply #31 on: July 24, 2009, 03:18:56 pm »
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The maps of NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state.

LoL you know you have so many things to point out on our maps but no, you say "NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state"
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #32 on: July 24, 2009, 03:26:19 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.







Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.
Of course you think that "Bias Republican"

Why don't you say something useful for once instead of accusing me of being biased.
Your map doesn't make sense. How will a Democrat win in Kansas? How will a Democrat win in Florida when Crist is leading by like, 30 points? How will John McCain, who beat the most famous Democrat in Arizona by 9 points, be unseated?
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« Reply #33 on: July 24, 2009, 03:30:42 pm »
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The maps of NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state.

LoL you know you have so many things to point out on our maps but no, you say "NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state"

That too, for example, the fact that you have the Democrats winning Kansas and Arizona. But what you two have for DC is the most obvious mistake.
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Clearly the solution is to privatize presidential elections.

So, in less than four years, get excited for the 2016 MetLife Financial U Pick The Prez Extravaganza. If you tweet a picture of your completed ballot with the hashtag #ivoted, you could win a trip for two to the inauguration or an iTunes gift card.
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« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2009, 03:31:39 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.







Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.
Of course you think that "Bias Republican"

Why don't you say something useful for once instead of accusing me of being biased.
Your map doesn't make sense. How will a Democrat win in Kansas? How will a Democrat win in Florida when Crist is leading by like, 30 points? How will John McCain, who beat the most famous Democrat in Arizona by 9 points, be unseated?





OK then, here's another map, but this is if John mccain retires or dies.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #35 on: July 24, 2009, 03:38:12 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.







Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.
Of course you think that "Bias Republican"

Why don't you say something useful for once instead of accusing me of being biased.
Your map doesn't make sense. How will a Democrat win in Kansas? How will a Democrat win in Florida when Crist is leading by like, 30 points? How will John McCain, who beat the most famous Democrat in Arizona by 9 points, be unseated?





OK then, here's another map, but this is if John mccain retires or dies.

Ehh, that's still be Democrat-friendly.
I think we'll be able to hold on to Kentucky. I don't think Bunning will make it out of the primaries. Then, I think we will win New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennyslvania. At least one of those 3. I consider Connecticut "Lean GOP" for now. Judging by the new California poll, Republicans might be able to pick up California, too.
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JerryBrown2010
KyleGordon2016
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« Reply #36 on: July 24, 2009, 03:44:55 pm »
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The maps of NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state.

LoL you know you have so many things to point out on our maps but no, you say "NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state"

That too, for example, the fact that you have the Democrats winning Kansas and Arizona. But what you two have for DC is the most obvious mistake.

when I said "you know you have so many things to point out on our maps" i meant your party does not the democrats.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #37 on: July 25, 2009, 01:52:17 am »
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I love how confident (and accurate) everyone is that Missouri is gonna flip seats Smiley yay red white and blue!

(Haven't slept all night. Apologize for the loopiness, or something like that).

Hold on to your pants, the campaign hasn't even started there. Smiley
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #38 on: July 25, 2009, 11:23:54 am »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.







Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.
Of course you think that "Bias Republican"

Why don't you say something useful for once instead of accusing me of being biased.
Your map doesn't make sense. How will a Democrat win in Kansas? How will a Democrat win in Florida when Crist is leading by like, 30 points? How will John McCain, who beat the most famous Democrat in Arizona by 9 points, be unseated?





OK then, here's another map, but this is if John mccain retires or dies.

Ehh, that's still be Democrat-friendly.
I think we'll be able to hold on to Kentucky. I don't think Bunning will make it out of the primaries. Then, I think we will win New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennyslvania. At least one of those 3. I consider Connecticut "Lean GOP" for now. Judging by the new California poll, Republicans might be able to pick up California, too.

NO. Just no. Any GOP candidate with half a shot at winning anything statewide is scrambling to enter the GOP primary for Governor in hopes of holding Arnold's seat.
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Deldem
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« Reply #39 on: July 26, 2009, 11:29:36 am »
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Other possible flips would be Connecticut (though I think Dodd's problems will be behind him at election time), Louisiana (Vitter is weak, Melancon has a shot to beat him), North Carolina (Burr is unremarkable), and Delaware (if Castle runs). I'm least confident that Ohio will flip, but fairly positive on Missouri (appears to be the better candidate) and Kentucky (Bunning. Enough said.) It'll be close in NH, but I think that it'll still flip.

And if Grassley (Iowa) and McCain (Arizona) retire, those are good shots at a flip.
If Hutchison (Texas) leaves early, the Dems have a longshot there too, if Bill White or John Sharp is the nominee.
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« Reply #40 on: July 26, 2009, 11:44:11 am »
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Basic confidence map:


I think the GOP takes Connecticut, and Delaware if Castle runs, while the Democrats take Missouri, and Kentucky if Bunning wins.
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« Reply #41 on: July 26, 2009, 11:48:44 am »
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Come on ben, Louisiana a tossup?  Vitter is way ahead in the polls.
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« Reply #42 on: July 26, 2009, 11:57:24 am »
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For the record my predictions:

« Last Edit: July 26, 2009, 01:44:56 pm by Ronnie »Logged

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« Reply #43 on: July 26, 2009, 11:57:45 am »
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Come on ben, Louisiana a tossup?  Vitter is way ahead in the polls.

Against Melancon?
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« Reply #44 on: July 26, 2009, 12:00:35 pm »
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Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.


Wow.  Care to explain Florida?  Kansas?  Arizona?  Delaware?  DC?
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« Reply #45 on: July 26, 2009, 12:00:59 pm »
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Come on ben, Louisiana a tossup?  Vitter is way ahead in the polls.

Against Melancon?

Um, yeah:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Louisiana_721.pdf
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« Reply #46 on: July 26, 2009, 12:05:20 pm »
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My bad, I hadn't seen that poll.  I'd put Louisiana in the Lean Republican category, then.
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« Reply #47 on: July 26, 2009, 01:00:56 pm »
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For the record my predictions:



You should adjust IL. It's an open seat since Burris is not running for reelection.
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« Reply #48 on: July 26, 2009, 01:04:54 pm »
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For the record my predictions:



You should adjust IL. It's an open seat since Burris is not running for reelection.

Woops, didn't catch that.  Thanks.
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« Reply #49 on: July 26, 2009, 03:46:06 pm »
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Dream scenario:



That is assuming that Castle doesn't run.  (Illinois is a pure toss-up for me)
Pickups:
For Democrats:  Missouri
For Republicans:  Connecticut, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania
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