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Question: How many seats will the GOP have?
<35   -2 (2%)
36-40   -26 (26.5%)
41-45   -40 (40.8%)
46-50   -24 (24.5%)
>50   -6 (6.1%)
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Total Voters: 97

Author Topic: 2010 senate prediction  (Read 34370 times)
pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #50 on: July 26, 2009, 04:23:53 pm »
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I'd say the most likely outcome is something between a +1 Republican gain and a +2 Democratic gain.

I think a third Democratic wave is unlikely, but not impossible. A Republican wave could theoretically give them a 4-seat net gain, but I think that's stretching things a bit.

This is obviously *VERY* speculative. Still, looking ahead, I'd imagine a likely outcome would be Democratic pickups in MO, NH, and either OH or KY (+3), with Republicans picking up Delaware (but only if Mike Castle runs) and one between NV, CT, and CO.

I think NV, CT, and CO all lean Dem at the moment. Well, Chris Dodd is behind, but his numbers have improved and my guess is that he'll get a scare, but will be the narrow victor. Reid's quite unpopular in Nevada, but Republicans can't seem to get their act together, and Reid has LOTS of money. If Dean Heller runs and is well-funded, they could pull an upset, but they're the underdogs. I do think the CO race is being overlooked a bit - if the Republicans nominate Ryan Frazier than at least at first glance he seems to be a potentially strong candidate, and Bennet is a total unknown.

As for other Dem-leaning seats? I suspect Vitter will narrowly hold on in Louisiana. North Carolina is a more likely pickup for the Dems, but I'd say it's only a second-tier opportunity right now and will depend somewhat on recruitment and the national mood.
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« Reply #51 on: July 26, 2009, 11:26:28 pm »
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I'd say the most likely outcome is something between a +1 Republican gain and a +2 Democratic gain.

I think a third Democratic wave is unlikely, but not impossible. A Republican wave could theoretically give them a 4-seat net gain, but I think that's stretching things a bit.

This is obviously *VERY* speculative. Still, looking ahead, I'd imagine a likely outcome would be Democratic pickups in MO, NH, and either OH or KY (+3), with Republicans picking up Delaware (but only if Mike Castle runs) and one between NV, CT, and CO.

I think NV, CT, and CO all lean Dem at the moment. Well, Chris Dodd is behind, but his numbers have improved and my guess is that he'll get a scare, but will be the narrow victor. Reid's quite unpopular in Nevada, but Republicans can't seem to get their act together, and Reid has LOTS of money. If Dean Heller runs and is well-funded, they could pull an upset, but they're the underdogs. I do think the CO race is being overlooked a bit - if the Republicans nominate Ryan Frazier than at least at first glance he seems to be a potentially strong candidate, and Bennet is a total unknown.

As for other Dem-leaning seats? I suspect Vitter will narrowly hold on in Louisiana. North Carolina is a more likely pickup for the Dems, but I'd say it's only a second-tier opportunity right now and will depend somewhat on recruitment and the national mood.


Agree, but I think Democrats will hold onto Nevada easily since the GOP doesn't really have much of a bench out there anymore after 2008 and knocking off the Senate Majority Leader with a nobody is quite a stretch, especially in a battleground state that leans blue after 2008. I'd say Illinois leans Democratic at the moment as well because, well, it's Illinois and I don't even know if Mark Kirk will survive the GOP primary, especially since he's a Chicago/moderate RINO, so if a more conservative right-wing Republican steps up and challenges him, who knows what will happen?

And if Louisiana reelects David Vitter against Charlie Melancon (I'll play to the Republicans' level and call him a DINO) despite Vitter's prostitution scandal, I'll officially certify it as the most idiotic and hypocritical not to mention least respectable state in the nation, especially since so many people down there are all bent up on family values ya know.

To the ones who were attacking KyleGordon2016 for his map, maybe he thought Kathleen Sebelius may get tired of being Secretary of HHS and would opt to run for the U.S. Senate seat there instead, same with Janet Napolitano? I agree though - without Sebelius there's no way we'll pick up Kansas, but Arizona may be a surprise especially if that right-wing nut Chris Simcox or whoever from the Minute Maid or whatever runs and bloodies up the Maverick because of his pro-amnesty position. Who knows what will happen.

And as for the Republicans claiming Roy BLUNT will win the Missouri Senate seat over Robin CARNAHAN, there are two words for that: LOSER DENIAL (but, to be more PC, wishful thinking). lol
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« Reply #52 on: July 26, 2009, 11:32:00 pm »
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And as for the Republicans claiming Roy BLUNT will win the Missouri Senate seat over Robin CARNAHAN, there are two words for that: LOSER DENIAL (but, to be more PC, wishful thinking). lol

It's wishful thinking to say that Carnahan is an absolute lock against Blunt, even though he has raised more money than her and the polls are very tight. Roll Eyes

Plus, the Dems' popularity is going down.  Anything is possible in '10
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« Reply #53 on: July 29, 2009, 11:54:16 pm »
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Hi, first post here, but Ive been reading the site for years.
Heres how I think it will turn out...

Im new to making these maps, but I think the GOP will have a decent year, after all, where can they go other than up.

California - I imagine I'll get the most resistance to this, but I think that Boxer is a perenially weak candidate that only needs the right challenger to defeat her.  Her mistakes this year will become fodder during a campaign.  This is the hopeful seat.

Colorado - There are some decent challengers and Bennett is an unelected and unknown quantity.

Delaware - Assuming Castle runs...if not, the dem wins.

Pennsylvania - Toomey is stronger than people think.  Ive followed his career for a number of years and he is not to be underestimated.  The early polls are looking good and Specter will be knocked off, whether by primary or by Toomey.

Connecticut - Dodd, enough said.

Missouri - Carnahan surely takes this one.
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« Reply #54 on: July 29, 2009, 11:56:02 pm »
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*facepalm*
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« Reply #55 on: July 30, 2009, 12:00:46 am »
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*facepalm*

That's funny, but you need the Patrick Stewart facepalm image to spice it up!...Nice to meet you.  Im always hopeful and would love to side with you and hope I get the chance, but the Carnahan name is fairly strong (except in 2002, when the trend was strong republican in the senate races).  I mean a dead Carnahan beat Ashcroft.  Plus, Roy Blunt just reeks of the Bush years (personal opinion of course).
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« Reply #56 on: July 30, 2009, 12:09:11 am »
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I'm not referring to that at all.  In fact, Carnahan has a good chance at winning.  I am referring to Nevada and California.  How can you expect Fiorina to beat Boxer, and which Republican can beat Harry Reid?

Sorry if the facepalm was mean, I am just in bad mood.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2009, 12:11:46 am by Ronnie »Logged

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« Reply #57 on: July 30, 2009, 12:15:51 am »
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California, like I mentioned, is totally hopeful and we still dont know if a candidate will surprise us.  I saw a recent poll showing Fiorina close and thus far, Boxer has only ran against men (Herschenshon, Fong, Jones(I think thats his name)).  Plus it helps Fiorina that shes a bit of a RINO on a lot of issues, issues that in California can sometimes make or break a GOP candidate.  I think shes pro choice and pro gay marriage or at least civil unions. 

In Nevada, I think Heller can beat Reid and remember in 2006 we had no-name democrats winning seats left and right (professors, doctors, et. al.)  If there is a charismatic newbie, that has maybe a little government experience, they could come out ahead.

No I wasnt offended by the facepalm at all.  I just love the Patrick Stewart facepalm image.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2009, 12:56:36 pm by azmagic »Logged
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« Reply #58 on: July 30, 2009, 12:22:03 am »
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Regarding California:  If Fiorina is shown as competitive late into the election, Boxer will DESTROY her.  You do remember what she did to Bruce Herschensohn, right?

Regarding Nevada:  Heller is unlikely to run, since he wants to replace Gibbons in the primary. (God bless him)
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« Reply #59 on: July 30, 2009, 12:25:57 am »
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Regarding California:  If Fiorina is shown as competitive late into the election, Boxer will DESTROY her.  You do remember what she did to Bruce Herschensohn, right?

Regarding Nevada:  Heller is unlikely to run, since he wants to replace Gibbons in the primary. (God bless him)

Yes, I remember, its hopeful anyways.

Yes, please if Heller can replace that stooge Gibbons, im all for that too.
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« Reply #60 on: July 30, 2009, 12:57:24 am »
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Delaware seems like the mostly likely gain for the GOP. Colorado is very worrisome as well.

And, even though a lot of Democrats and liberals seem to be shrugging off Illinois, I must say that Kirk frightens me.

I voted 41-45.
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« Reply #61 on: July 30, 2009, 12:34:43 pm »
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I think CO is the most to go, Giannoulias will be find. Once IL find out he is a conservative republican, military buildup and tax cuts, but pragmatic on energy conservation, it will be a different story.
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« Reply #62 on: July 31, 2009, 02:07:34 am »
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I think CO is the most to go, Giannoulias will be find. Once IL find out he is a conservative republican, military buildup and tax cuts, but pragmatic on energy conservation, it will be a different story.

That's my map, but make MO Dem. 

PA- Toomey is definitely stronger than people think, BUT PA is just not that conservative.  He'll face Joe Sestak who will be stronger than Specter.
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« Reply #63 on: July 31, 2009, 09:56:40 am »
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As for the IL senate, I think the 2016 olympics will play a part in who will be getting elected to that seat.  I think Chicago will get the olympics and Giannoulius will play an active part in supporting that olympics. Also, I don't believe PA and IL and NV will go republican unless Dems loses seat. As far as now, I think Dems will gain seats.

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« Reply #64 on: August 03, 2009, 02:10:27 am »
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Dunno how to post maps so i will put it in this form:

Dems - MO

Reps - tbd

preface - i will never again definitively state anything in regards to gaming so to speak after i predicted that the 2008 Indians would be in the WS and that the 2009 cavs would be in the finals.  Both teams were the best i had ever seen in my life but there are many things that can derail a supposed sure thing.

California -  pipe dream Safe DEM hold no explanation needed

Colorado - this is the hardest race to predict.  Bennett seems to be a fundraising machine and the state is turning blue(red for this site.) If Ryan Frazier is the nominee and he is a capable campaigner this will be an interesting race.  Frazier = toss-up if not DEM hold

Connecticut - i think the best thing to happen to dodd reelection campaign was his diagnosis of prostate cancer.  In this country surviving cancer is like saving a baby from a fire. If yo do your golden.  Also, i think his numbers bottomed out and will only go up.  This along with the nature of CT will allow him to squeak by.  DEM Hold

Delware - this is a pipe dream now in my opinion.  Castle clearly the only rep who stands a chance has not raised any money what so ever.  With out a decent cash flow he would have a tough time to begin with.  Let alone this leads me to believe that he is not running.  If he is not running safe Dem.  DEM hold

Florida - Dem pipe dream unless Christ is found in bed with his a wife and a dude.  REP Hold

Illinois -  Kirk is a formidable challenger but this is the one race i seem to know about more than any other.  From what i have gather is that kirk is a great congressman for his constituent services and his family connection.  His family is very well respected in the area that encompasses the 10th district and his grandmother seems to have major political sway.  I don't know how this translates.  Also, i believe that obama will be the key factor here. If Alexi is down in the polls or close he will come in and save him.  Late ad cut for Alexi will put him over the top.  Plus kirk seems to be the kind of person who doesn't know how to avoid scandal. the lead story tonight on wgn was about kirks event tweets landing him in hot water.  Slight DEM hold

Kentucky-  With bunnings' retirement this is went from a pick up to a sure rep hold.  REP Hold

Louisiana - Vitter should be vulnerable but the diaper fetish man will be safe.  Reps would rather have a person like them than actually vote a scandalous figure out.  Its similar to dodd in CT.  Both should be gone but partisanship will allow them to survive.  REP hold

Missouri - This race seems to be a race between a popular member of a popular family verse the only likable member of an unlikable family.  The state may tilt rep but dynamics of the race lean Dem.  Most of my knowledge about this race comes from this site and other political sites but their is one consistant thing that any one with out bias has given Robin the edge.  So i defer to that.  DEM takeover

Nevada - Most powerful senator verse third tier oppt. equals no chance. Unless a candidate like las Vegas mayor switches parties to run against Reid there is no chance.  For those who use daschle as an example as why Reid could be taken down remember two things.  Daschle was in a must redder(bluer for this site) state and ran against a thune who had barely lost the previous cycle and had great name rec. and fundraising abilities. No one had presented these abilities thus far.  DEM hold.

New Hamp. - This is the truest of toss up right now.  Hodes has the advantage because of the trend of the state and the fact that he will be running with lynch who will give him coattails.  Also it seems lynch had a grudge against ayotte and will be campaign against her.  However we don't how well of campaigner she will be.  It seems to me hodes is a good campaigner so ayotte will have to be that much better.  But until the race shapes up its still a toss up.  TOSS-UP

North Carolina - this should have been Roy coopers to win.  When he declined it made me think that he know something we don't.  That lead me to believe that either he doesn't want run for federal office or he saw that this cycle would be anti-dem.  Either way unless cunningham gets into this race i don't see the Dem's winning.  REP hold

Pennsylvania - This race is the one were i have no idea about.  The Dem nature of the state and toomey radical conservatism leads me to believe that specter will survive.  However, a bloody primary and a backlash against obama could lead to unknown results.  Still specter is the favorite and toomey is still a out work congressman who is best known for his support of losing candidates.  DEM hold

Ohio -  I would like to believe that portman would be hung by his disastrous heading of the bush finicials.  However, Americans are now for two things short mememory and over reactions.  That being said in a neutral climate Ohio is lean rep so portman aided by a bloody primary(get out of the race brunner and save us the SOS seat) will win in a close race. REP hold.

Any race not listed here is a pipe dream for the opposition or would take a macca moment.  If one of these two things occur then these rating will change but until then.  D+1
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« Reply #65 on: August 03, 2009, 02:13:02 pm »
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I got Dems +1 with New Hamsphire.

Missouri is leaning towards the dems but I think New Hamsphire is more likely to flip than Missouri is. 

« Last Edit: August 03, 2009, 02:15:03 pm by WEB Dubois »Logged
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« Reply #66 on: August 04, 2009, 11:21:54 am »
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Why do people think the Dems will have a POSITIVE Net Gain? 2010 will be a slight bounce back for the GOP. I predict +2 or 3 to the GOP.
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« Reply #67 on: August 04, 2009, 07:18:44 pm »
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Why do people think the Dems will have a POSITIVE Net Gain? 2010 will be a slight bounce back for the GOP. I predict +2 or 3 to the GOP.

CAuse so many of our guys decided to retire especially in swing states, making our job harder and theres easier.
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« Reply #68 on: August 05, 2009, 02:05:43 am »
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This is what I think will happen; worst case scenario for the Dems could see the loss (compared to my map) of CT, PA, NH, MO, OH, IL, CO and maybe an upset or two, which would still leave the GOP 2-3 short of a majority (since a 50-50 tie would still favor the Dems).

With the map I made the Dems would have 62 or 63 seats (I can't call Ohio either way right now) which would leave Mary Landrieu or Tom Carper as the 60th most liberal vote (according to Voteview's rankings of the 110th Senate)...sounds good to me.
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« Reply #69 on: August 05, 2009, 07:54:52 am »
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We'll pick up six seats if Castle runs (IL, CT, DE, PA, CO, and NV).

The only seat I think we have a real shot at losing in Missouri.  To have a long term incumbent struggling the way Bond is suggests his constituents don't like him that much.
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« Reply #70 on: August 05, 2009, 09:12:30 am »
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CO, CT, and DE are true tossups as far as PA, NV, IL I don't see GOP winning.
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« Reply #71 on: August 08, 2009, 02:17:27 pm »
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Democrats 63

Republicans 37

Very close in New Hampshire, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio
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« Reply #72 on: August 09, 2009, 11:03:05 pm »
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Proportionally there are a lot more Republicans up for reelection than Democrats. Since there are almost 60 Democratic senators and exactly 40 Republican ones, the fact that the number of currently held seats up for reelection is almost 50-50 is a major advantage for the Democratic party(it'll be advantage GOP using this logic in 2012 and 2014).

Of course 06' was supposed to be an oppurtunity for the GOP to really bury the Democratic party and look how that turned out. Using my 15 months away from the election logic I say the GOP will pick up 2 seats when it's all said and done, but it won't be in states that are traditionally Democratic.
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« Reply #73 on: August 10, 2009, 08:46:04 pm »
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Democrats: 59 (+1)
Republicans: 39 (-1)
Independents: 2 (-)
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« Reply #74 on: August 10, 2009, 10:48:11 pm »
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Democrats 63

Republicans 37

Very close in New Hampshire, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio
I don't think a major party has ever not made gains in 3 straight cycles
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