I'd say the most likely outcome is something between a +1 Republican gain and a +2 Democratic gain.
I think a third Democratic wave is unlikely, but not impossible. A Republican wave could theoretically give them a 4-seat net gain, but I think that's stretching things a bit.
This is obviously *VERY* speculative. Still, looking ahead, I'd imagine a likely outcome would be Democratic pickups in MO, NH, and either OH or KY (+3), with Republicans picking up Delaware (but only if Mike Castle runs) and one between NV, CT, and CO.
I think NV, CT, and CO all lean Dem at the moment. Well, Chris Dodd is behind, but his numbers have improved and my guess is that he'll get a scare, but will be the narrow victor. Reid's quite unpopular in Nevada, but Republicans can't seem to get their act together, and Reid has LOTS of money. If Dean Heller runs and is well-funded, they could pull an upset, but they're the underdogs. I do think the CO race is being overlooked a bit - if the Republicans nominate Ryan Frazier than at least at first glance he seems to be a potentially strong candidate, and Bennet is a total unknown.
As for other Dem-leaning seats? I suspect Vitter will narrowly hold on in Louisiana. North Carolina is a more likely pickup for the Dems, but I'd say it's only a second-tier opportunity right now and will depend somewhat on recruitment and the national mood.
Agree, but I think Democrats will hold onto Nevada easily since the GOP doesn't really have much of a bench out there anymore after 2008 and knocking off the Senate Majority Leader with a nobody is quite a stretch, especially in a battleground state that leans blue after 2008. I'd say Illinois leans Democratic at the moment as well because, well, it's Illinois and I don't even know if Mark Kirk will survive the GOP primary, especially since he's a Chicago/moderate RINO, so if a more conservative right-wing Republican steps up and challenges him, who knows what will happen?
And if Louisiana reelects David Vitter against Charlie Melancon (I'll play to the Republicans' level and call him a DINO) despite Vitter's prostitution scandal, I'll officially certify it as the most idiotic and hypocritical not to mention least respectable state in the nation, especially since so many people down there are all bent up on family values ya know.
To the ones who were attacking KyleGordon2016 for his map, maybe he thought Kathleen Sebelius may get tired of being Secretary of HHS and would opt to run for the U.S. Senate seat there instead, same with Janet Napolitano? I agree though - without Sebelius there's no way we'll pick up Kansas, but Arizona may be a surprise especially if that right-wing nut Chris Simcox or whoever from the Minute Maid or whatever runs and bloodies up the Maverick because of his pro-amnesty position. Who knows what will happen.
And as for the Republicans claiming Roy BLUNT will win the Missouri Senate seat over Robin CARNAHAN, there are two words for that: LOSER DENIAL (but, to be more PC, wishful thinking). lol
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