US with French parties

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

[Hash]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

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You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

[Bo]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

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You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

The silver standard (which Bryan advocated) would be extremely unpopular after 1900.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

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You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

The silver standard (which Bryan advocated) would be extremely unpopular after 1900.

Yeah, but by looking to the election maps it seems that Dakotas definitively abandoned populism in the 1940s.

[Hash]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

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You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

The silver standard (which Bryan advocated) would be extremely unpopular after 1900.

Yeah, but by looking to the election maps it seems that Dakotas definitively abandoned populism in the 1940s.

The silver standard is irrelevant. The Dakotas support farm subsidies and federal government funds for agriculture. They're not neoliberals.

[big bad fab]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

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You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

The silver standard (which Bryan advocated) would be extremely unpopular after 1900.

Yeah, but by looking to the election maps it seems that Dakotas definitively abandoned populism in the 1940s.

The silver standard is irrelevant. The Dakotas support farm subsidies and federal government funds for agriculture. They're not neoliberals.

That's the big point I think.
And, of course, I agree with Hash on Dakotas and on (relative) strength of MPF and DLR, through protest vote.

On another point, when I said Frêche socialism for some parts of Kentucky or Appalachia, I'm happy, today, after Murtha's death and Frêche's new star status, to imagine Frêche as a populist Dem in some lost part of those states...

Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska will be very fine to read too Maybe some surprises...
I repeat it all the time, but this is really a very good idea, and very well managed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Frêche would fit perfectly as a Dixiecrat.

[Nichlemn]

Solid analysis, but I'm having a hard time seeing how the right in France wouldn't just crush in the US, given the latter's conservatism. Considering that Obama won 53% in the US but opinion polls had him 80%+ in France, we could possibly extrapolate from that that the converse is true, that conservative French candidates would do vastly better in the US. On the other hand, it's possible that Obama's high worldwide support stemmed considerably less from the relatively leftist leanings than an image of multilateralism that appeals to foreigners. Would that make up that much of the gap though?

An analysis of the US with British parties would be interesting as well. As would an election being purely hypothetical parties who focus almost entirely on economic issues (as is usually the case in New Zealand).

[Hash]

Solid analysis, but I'm having a hard time seeing how the right in France wouldn't just crush in the US, given the latter's conservatism. Considering that Obama won 53% in the US but opinion polls had him 80%+ in France, we could possibly extrapolate from that that the converse is true, that conservative French candidates would do vastly better in the US. On the other hand, it's possible that Obama's high worldwide support stemmed considerably less from the relatively leftist leanings than an image of multilateralism that appeals to foreigners. Would that make up that much of the gap though?

An analysis of the US with British parties would be interesting as well. As would an election being purely hypothetical parties who focus almost entirely on economic issues (as is usually the case in New Zealand).

I already explained that in my original post and countless times throughout this thread, so I'm not much in the mood to re-explain it at length. In an atmosphere based more around economic issues than hot-button social issues, in an atmosphere were socialism isn't a swearword, there is much room in the US for a strong left, and I'm not alone in thinking that. If you look at the socio-political demographics, you would also think that.

[Colin]

Really great job Hashemite. Keep up the good work.

[Hash]

Missouri

St. Louis and suburbs

St. Louis would obviously be a Socialist stronghold, for reasons I don't need to explain. I know that there are some white areas within the city itself that are quite racist, and they would likely provide the FN with an important base in the city. In 1997, for example, I would predict that the FN would be quite a bit ahead of the RPR-UDF (and the PS far ahead).

The north-ish suburbs of St. Louis in St. Charles County would be solidly UMP, as would most white-collar suburbs. More blue collar areas along the river, with an old manufacturing base, would be safe-ish areas for the PS.

Central Missouri, Mid-Missouri and the Boot heel

The rural stretch of central Missouri would be like much of the old south: old PS areas, with 'yellow dog Socialists' slowly declining in favour of UMP (growth of white-collar suburbia) and the MPF (growth in rural formerly PS areas). I suppose the UMP would do well in the (predominantly German) wine-growing areas of the Missouri Rhineland, though it would have been a PS area in the past.

The Lead Belt would be an old conservative PS area, with a high FN vote and declining UMP vote. The boot heel of Missouri would be a Dixiecrat PS area and all that entails (for more info, refer to past posts on the Deep South).

The city of Columbia would be PS, though the type of city with a high Green vote and lost by the PS in 2009 to the Greenies. Jefferson City would probably be UMP.

Kansas City and surroundings

Kansas City itself would be strongly Socialist, with the strongest PS support in black and old blue-collar areas while the UMP or Greens would find more support with white, middle-class white-collar employees. The affluent suburbs would be UMP, though older not-as-big suburbia would be traditionally PS with a very strong FN (and in 2007, a big UMP. Some reminds me of the not-so-affluent suburbs of Lyon).

Rural areas in western Missouri would be like the rest of small-town Missouri, old Dixiecrat PS areas.

Ozarks

Like in Arkansas, the old Republican Ozarks would be a UMP stronghold, with the MPF also strong. It would obviously be unlike the other rural Dixiecrat areas in the rest of the state.

Overall Missouri would be one of those southern-like PS states which shifted slowly to the UMP-MPF, and one where Sarkozy's populist and blue-collar appeal in 2007 would have worked well (other such states include parts of PA, TN, IN, parts of IA, AR and the Deep South). In 2010, of course, the UMP would be polling at Moselle-levels.

To give an idea of what Chirac's 1995 victory would look like

Jospin does better in the Rust Belt, Deep South; Chirac does better in moderate rural areas, Gaullist Dakotas, wealthy moderate suburbs in NoVA and Maryland, upstate NY, New England, Catholic areas (Louisiana esp.). Map might be a tad too generous to Jospin, though, but I might (or might not) have cool stuff planned for the Plains and Pacific.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it's back !!

[Psychic Octopus]

I'm interested in getting to the west.

[Hash]

Nebraska

On the whole, Nebraska would be solidly UMP, for rather obvious reasons. However, I suppose that farm issues in various years could allow some PS strength, and the agricultural discontent with Sarkozy would likely mean a high DLR protest vote in 2009. The MPF would be rather weak, because it would be outside its base and doesn't fit with the MPF's image here of 'southern Baptist redneck party'.

Omaha would have old pockets of PS strength, but would be generally UMP (50-53% Sarkozy in 2007, about) though it would likely have a PS mayor and a quasi-full slate of PS general councillors. Lincoln would be traditionally PS, with a high Green vote and a strong UMP. The PS would also have traditional strength in some 'ethnic' areas (Saline County) and Native areas (Thurston County).

Rural areas would now be uniformly UMP, though in the distant past, there would have been more variation and local PS candidates could cause some variation as well.


Kansas

Kansas would be similar to Nebraska in overall political leanings with a few differences, including a stronger PS.

Kansas City proper, which is blue-collar, rather poor and working-class, would be a PS stronghold; though obviously Johnson County would be solidly UMP. Lawrence, KS (Douglas County) would also lean PS, with a very high Green vote and fast declining UMP vote (especially with Sarko). There are some old mining areas of sorts (Crawford County, which voted Obama, voted Debs in 1912) and I would assume the PS would poll strongly there, especially in the past (PCF would pull a respectable share, much lower now). There'd be some sort of PS base in Wichita as well.

The Plains would be like the Plains in Nebraska are; solidly UMP. Sarkozy would have won the state easily in 2007, but I think he'd fall just short of 60% (due to poor results in Kansas City, Lawrence, though he'd do well in the [very] old mining areas).

and...

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[Hash]

One thing which is kind of interesting is if the French politicians are transported as well... and where they'd fit in.

Basically my (awfully wrong, most likely) hunches are:

Sarkozy (Neuilly) > those awfully wealthy places in NJ with NYC commuters (NYC would probably be like Paris, with wealthy rightie exurbia and inner Red Belt suburbia in NJ and parts of Long Island). I don't think NoVA would fit in well with Neuilly, not enough old established bouregois wealth
Royal (ruralish areas south of Niort, some old leftie strength) > ?
Bayrou (moutains of Bearn east of Pau) > Aroostook County or Coos County(?)
Le Pen (wherever he can win) > FN strongholds with Cuban voters in Miami, obviously
Besancenot (Paris) > inner New York City or somewhere, and postman in those obnoxiously wealthy places in CT. Obviously the NPA would be an even *bigger* joke in the US than in France
Buffet (Red Belt, PCF machine bases) > Newark or other undesirable NJ places
Voynet (Montreuil) > Bergen County, NJ (?) or Red Beltish areas in NJ
Bové (Aveyron, Millau) > I have a really hard time figuring out where some rural syndicalist type like Asterix would fit in.
Aubry (Lille) > Some place like Boston, MA or Lowell, MA
Gaudin (Marseille) > Miami
Freche (Montpellier) > I can't think right now of any places in the US which are seaside resorts full of fascists, old people who hate browns and idiots. He would, however, fit right in the quasi-entirety of the Deep South and Appalachia
Delanoë (Paris) > One would assume NYC is the new Paris, and Chirac could have been mayor of NYC before (though it would be harder for him to win in NYC than in Paris)
Méhaignerie (Vitré) > Rural Catholic areas in New England, Méhaignerie sure ain't no Cajun
Fabius (industrial Rouennais suburbs) > The damn Potomac has no industrial areas on its shoreline, does it?
Cohn-Bendit (wherever he feels like setting up camp) > as Fab said early on, Canadian-American citizen living in Vermont or le Plateau/NDG in Montreal

It's harder to think of places for Fillon, Hamon (he'd probably fit in with some corrupt PS machine somewhere), Duflot

and ahem,
Besson > Oklahoma or Idaho panhandle (sorry, cheap shot, couldn't resist)

[Хahar 🤔]

Frêche could be from Myrtle Beach or someplace like that. I'm thinking northern Minnesota for Bové.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shouldn't Aubry be somewhere in the Rust Belt ? I'm thinking to MI or PA.
And for Frêche, Arizona could fit well.

[Hash]

Shouldn't Aubry be somewhere in the Rust Belt ? I'm thinking to MI or PA.

The Lille area is historically based on textiles, so Lowell or some other Industrial Revolution town in MA fits better. She's not from the coalfields.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shouldn't Aubry be somewhere in the Rust Belt ? I'm thinking to MI or PA.

The Lille area is historically based on textiles, so Lowell or some other Industrial Revolution town in MA fits better. She's not from the coalfields.

Seems that once again you know things far better than me. I'm not surprised however, I expected to be wrong but was still interested in learning something new.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The syndicalism doesn't quite fit, but I'm thinking the most plausible location for Bové is Vermont or western Mass, where you get left-wing politics mixed in with a love of pre-industrial farming.

Nice thread, by the way - I just noticed it since I don't normally really read the what-if board.

[Hash]

The syndicalism doesn't quite fit, but I'm thinking the most plausible location for Bové is Vermont or western Mass, where you get left-wing politics mixed in with a love of pre-industrial farming.

Vermont would work best, since it's more mountainous, but the hippie-green aspect of Vermont isn't really like the Larzac, but then, it's hard to find a syndicalist mountainous anti-globalization locale in the US, but then it doesn't matter since Bove is only 1% in France and likely much less in the US.

Next up is Oklahoma, where I have some fun surprises planned.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Next up is Oklahoma, where I have some fun surprises planned.

We'll, I guess we will have a result similar to west virginia : a very conservative State which you'll give to the PS because of its populism.

[Mechaman]

Next up is Oklahoma, where I have some fun surprises planned.

We'll, I guess we will have a result similar to west virginia : a very conservative State which you'll give to the PS because of its populism.

Actually, if the French parties were historical and say the Great White Terror never happened I could very easily see a Socialist stronghold in Oklahoma taking place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I keep meaning to comment in more detail. But really, this is an excellent thread. What's fun about projects like this is that they are an excellent excuse to comment on a range of issues relating to political sociology in a way that's easier for people who aren't academics and/or nerds to follow. I'll probably have another go at doing this with Britisher parties soon-ish. Hmm... might be amusing to flip things round as well.