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Author Topic: US with French parties  (Read 28510 times)
big bad fab
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« Reply #75 on: August 23, 2009, 05:17:21 pm »
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I need to read them more carefully, as these two are fine and complex.

I LOVE the idea of Cubans as a base for FN vote ! Cheesy

In old colonial Georgia, why not Geroges FrÍche as a good candidate for the PS ? Wink

Wouldn't Tampa vote UMP overall, but also "in detail", even in the centre ? I thought the city was really moderate GOP. But I may be wrong.
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« Reply #76 on: August 23, 2009, 05:31:54 pm »
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Commenting on these one-by-one for the sheer hell of it... all comments assume that the party "translation" used is correct.

Let's start.

Maine

The north has a populist feel to it and is more working-class, from what I gather, so it would generally vote Socialist. The UDF could carry Aroostook, though the Socialists would do well there too. The UMP wins rural areas, potato country, and wealthy areas on the coast. The Greens are quite strong along the coast and in Portland, and would have probably come second in the 2009 'Euro' elections (presumably a North-Central American Parliament here!). Portland would probably be PS now, though right-wing in the past.

Overall: Lean UMP, and Sarkozy would have carried in 2007.

As a general overview this seems about right - though it's worth noting that the great PS stronghold in Maine would be Lewiston and surrounds. Oh, and some of the more working class rural areas would certainly be capable of voting PS.

Quote
New Hampshire

The UMP is strong in wealthy communities with a strong number of Boston emigres and what's left of rural NH. The Socialists would win communities developed on the textile industry. Coos County is a UDF stronghold, though with a rising PS.

Overall: Lean UMP, and Sarkozy would have carried in 2007.
[/quote]

Again, difficult to complain much. I think you're wrong about Coos though.
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« Reply #77 on: August 23, 2009, 05:45:33 pm »
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Vermont

A hard state to pin down in terms of French parties. It would probably have been a ARD stronghold during the Third Republic and later a CNI (or RGR) stronghold. The influx of liberals from New England and the CNI's move to the right would have shifted the state to the Socialists - though liberal progressive 'champagne' socialists and not working-class socialists. The PRG (if they bothered to run candidates) and, in particular the Greens do very well, and the Greens would probably have won the state in 2009. The UMP is limited to very older wealthy communities and maybe Essex County. The UDF-CDS would have done well in the Catholic areas in the past, but would be a non-factor now obviously.

Not to say, the UMP could actually do well in state races depending on the candidate.

Overall: One of Royal's best states in the runoff. Voynet's best state in the first round (5-6% vs. 1% nationwide) and Mamere would have done very well (10-13%). Perhaps Sarkozy's worst state, and Royal mightve broken 40% here in the first round.

Less rich liberals moved to Vermont than is commonly thought. Anyway, as a general summary... not bad, I think. Though the PS would always have had a base in the state.

Quote
Massachusetts

Massachusetts, due to its very high percentage of Catholics, would have been a UDF stronghold. The UDF would have been strong quasi-universally, taking Irish voters in Boston, rural voters, and working-class voters. Nowadays, the UDF's strength is much reduced, maybe 30-35% for Bayrou in 2007, concentrated in solidly UDF rural MA. The UMP wins in affluent Boston suburbia and affluent coastal communities in Cape Cod and so forth. The Socialists would have gained a ground in minority areas (Boston, mostly. Probably gained the local govt from the UDF-CDS in 1989 or so) and in liberal areas. It's actually a tricky state to work with.

My estimate for CDs gives the UDF 4, the PS 4 and the UMP 2.

Overall: Bayrou's voters in the first round vote Socialist in the runoff by a decent margin, giving Royal an important margin here in the runoff.

Now here I think you're very wrong, though for understandable reasons. The "Catholic" vote in MA is not, and was never, anything like the Catholic vote in France. It was not a rural Clerical vote. It is better understood as an ethnic-immigrant (mostly Irish, but not entirely), and even a class, vote. It wasn't shaped by the clergy, but by urban machine politicians. Massachusetts was also one of the first parts of the U.S to get seriously industrialised (textiles as it happens - a lot of "rural MA" is only rural in an extremely broad sense of the term). As such the Irish vote would mostly be PS (firmly on the right of the party, obviously) with the Catholic influence showing up largely in the weakness of the PCF in an area that would otherwise be quite favourable for them.
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« Reply #78 on: August 23, 2009, 07:29:24 pm »
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I wonder where the PS's strength is. It appears rather weak.
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« Reply #79 on: August 23, 2009, 07:40:10 pm »
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I wonder where the PS's strength is. It appears rather weak.
Wait for some "continental" states, I think.
Appalachia, MidWest, Upper MidWest, inner South, etc are still to come.
And remember it's 2007.
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« Reply #80 on: August 23, 2009, 07:49:41 pm »
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Rhode Island

Catholic working-class stronghold. Would have been a UDF stronghold for a long time, though with decline in church attendance, you would see the Socialists making some important gains and UDF voters would be more likely to vote for Socialists in runoffs after, say, 1980 or 1984. The UMP is limited to some very wealthy towns and that's it.

Overall: Royal would have won the runoff in 2007, and Bayrou would have won the state in the first round.

See MA but more so - real life Democratic domination of Rhode Island actually began with a sort of democratic revolution of the working class against the state's traditional elite. There's also a certain Liberal Republican tradition amongst affluent voters here (oh, this goes for MA, VT as well). Might translate as Radical strength, perhaps.

Quote
Connecticut

Would be an important swing state. The UMP does well in wealthy New York suburbia and other wealthy places, the PS does well in inner city Hartford (minorities) and also surrounding areas which used to be industrial textile towns. Also does well in Bridgeport, obviously. The UDF would be worth around 15-25% depending on the election and would be relatively stable and geographically equally distributed. Greens do well in Litchfield etc.

Overall: Sarkozy narrowly wins in 2007.

This though feels right, though the usual (lol) New England question mark about the UDF.

Good stuff so far though, interesting.
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« Reply #81 on: September 07, 2009, 09:03:01 am »
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Bump. Just bump. No demand.
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« Reply #82 on: September 08, 2009, 03:07:30 pm »
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Bump. Just bump. No demand.
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #83 on: October 07, 2009, 08:31:38 pm »
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Alabama

Black Belt

Guess.

Central Alabama and Birmingham Metro

Birmingham City itself, due to its high black population and so forth would be a Socialist stronghold, though suburbia would be the base of the Southern UMP and as UMP as they get. Rural areas in central Alabama would lean MPF, and you could have the weird outburst of PS and even PCF (!) support in some old mining areas here and there.

Cumberland Plateau

An old Socialist stronghold, the MPF and FN would have gained a lot here: the FN in the more industrial blue-collar areas, the MPF in the more agricultural and rural areas. Overall, the area would lean MPF with the FN and PS being the other major parties, with little UMP support due to the lack of suburbia, and maybe, again, the weird outburst of PCF (!) support here and there. Though probably not much of those PCF-outburts anymore. More under Georges Marchais maybe.

Tennessee Valley and Northern Alabama

I could see the TVA Democrats here being TVA Socialists, presumably, depending on how history works out. Conservative socialists, obviously (Georges FrÍche would do well). Decatur and Huntsville would be PS strongholds, though their respective suburbia would be the base of the UMP in the region. The FN is the dominant far-right party here, not the MPF.

Alabama Piedmont and Western Alabama

Probably similar to the Cumberland Plateau, with MPF support in rural areas and FN support in older industrial areas. However, you do have a big city (Montgomery), which probably leans Socialist, and the predictably UMP suburbia. You would have some Green support in Auburn, where the PS would have made gains in recent years after falling off in the 80s or so (Auburn is a college town). The UMP also might win military-dominated areas. Bobby Bright-type Socialists would poll well and they'd be the dominant type in these parts (shock).

Gulf Coast

Mobile itself would probably still be Socialist, but most of the Bay area would lean UMP. White inland areas would resemble the rest of Alabama.



(I assume MPF voters vote Sarkozy in the runoff).
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« Reply #84 on: October 08, 2009, 02:05:03 am »
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Chouette !
It's back !
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« Reply #85 on: October 08, 2009, 04:58:03 am »
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Glad to see it statrs again. Smiley
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #86 on: October 12, 2009, 07:42:01 pm »
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Mississippi

Similar to Alabama, except that the racial voting is even more horrible here and this probably means the PS doesn't have the same success in old Socialist white areas like they do in some places in Alabama. Unless they're conservative white Socialists.

Black areas, obviously, provide the vast majority of the PS' vote in a year like 2007. In addition, you have some PS support in educated white areas (mostly unis) and the like, but that's it. Jackson proper is obviously a PS stronghold, the PS Mayor of Jackson consistently wins re-election by the first round.

Agricultural white areas would support the MPF, suburbia (Nashville, TN and Jackson) and the Gulf Coast would be the base of the UMP and the FN would win the old white manufacturing areas and the like. It might receive some votes in places devastated by Katrina and poorly reconstructed afterwards.

Louisiana

New Orleans and Florida Parishes

The city itself is Socialist, obviously, but the electoral effects of Katrina would be interesting. You could see a large protest vote for the PCF and maybe even Greenies and the FN if the recovery effort in 2005 is as poor as IRL. White affluent suburbia is uber-UMP, obviously. Baton Rouge is similar, inner city Socialist and suburbia UMP. Rural areas in the Florida Parishes, if they're very rural and non-Cajun would vote MPF.

Cajun Country

The base of the UDF in the South, and real Christian democratic country. The fact that Cajuns would have been UDF for a while, probably even during the era of PS dominance in the South, would make Louisiana a weaker state for the PS and they probably would've a tough time winning it even in their best years.

Central and Northern Louisiana

Black counties along the Mississippi River and so forth are predictably Socialist, while rural Southern Protestant areas would be MPF strongholds. The UMP has a limited foothold in the suburbs of Shreveport.

PS: Places where David Duke did well would probably lean MPF over FN, actually.



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« Reply #87 on: October 12, 2009, 08:04:25 pm »
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Much of rural northern Louisiana was almost as close as places came to being an SPA stronghold and was also the political base of Huey Long.

Cajuns-as-Christian-Democrats makes a lot of sense, though.
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« Reply #88 on: October 12, 2009, 08:07:11 pm »
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The Socialists are getting crushed. Sad
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« Reply #89 on: October 12, 2009, 08:09:37 pm »
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The Socialists are getting crushed. Sad

Well, that's what usually happens in the real France, so...

Still. He may have great things planned for the Midwest. And um... maybe Washington and Oregon...
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« Reply #90 on: October 13, 2009, 12:24:27 am »
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Yeah; aside from WV, where is the left strong that the Democrats aren't?
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« Reply #91 on: October 13, 2009, 01:25:18 am »
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Yeah; aside from WV, where is the left strong that the Democrats aren't?

In the Outer South probably (KY, TN, AR, MO).
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #92 on: October 13, 2009, 02:35:56 am »
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Just wait for Midwest and South West, we may have some surprises...
And remember this is 2007, not the end of 2009, with this dwindling UMP...
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« Reply #93 on: November 07, 2009, 10:39:20 am »
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Tennessee (warning: I don't know sh**t about TN)

Blue Ridge and Eastern Tennessee

There is an old Republican tradition dating back to a long time in these parts. I would assume it would carry over to the UMP with limited bleeding to the MPF and the FN. The only real Socialist areas would be the limited black pockets and university pockets in Knoxville and Chattanooga.

Central Tennessee and Nashville

To begin with, the inner areas of Nashville are Socialist but of the category that voted Green in June 2009. The suburbs, of course, are UMP.

The areas of central TN in the Cumberland Plateau area would have a continued old Socialist presence and base of support, though the MPF (in rural areas) and FN (in blue-collar areas) would have gained strength in the past. At the local level, I could definitely see a lot of Socialist councillors in the General Council from here. Other old Socialist areas in the Nashville Basin would have held slightly better, but the Socialists would have lost with the arrival of suburbanites.

Western Tennessee

The Mississippi River Plain and in rural western TN would still be a rather Socialist area, I suppose, though it would like FrÍche-like people and other 'old style Socialists' (Mitterrand would have done well) over people of the DSK genre.

The suburbs of Memphis would be a lean UMP area, but since a lot of the people are in there are also white-flight from Memphis, I suppose you could see a large FN vote, especially for a suburban area. Memphis itself is Socalist and becoming more Socialist ever so slowly. The Greens would have done well in 2009, but not as well as in Memphis. I'm assuming that blacks stayed Socialist even in 2009.

Overall, I think Sarko might have narrowly won here in 2007 (quite a major win for him) due to his stupid populist rhetoric which would have played well here.

Arkansas

Arkansas would remain a Socialist-leaning state, with continued old Socialist support in poor rural Arkansas (like old Democratic support there). Predictably, the black areas on the Mississippi River would also be solidly Socialist.

Little Rock itself would be Socialist, and the suburbia strongly UMP making a district like AR-2 a real swing district.

The Ozarks would continue to have a strong UMP tradition with some MPF and FN inroads in recent years.

I could see Arkansas being narrowly won by Royal in 2008 though Sarko would have played very well.

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« Reply #94 on: November 07, 2009, 12:39:41 pm »
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Nice, it's back ! Cheesy
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #95 on: November 08, 2009, 04:26:35 pm »
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Nice, it's back ! Cheesy
YES !

And with a fine Arkansas, a state Sarkozy may have hoped to win in 2007, but lost closely and where he backfires badly now...
I would see it as a rural version of the industrial Moselle.

And TN, a very narrow Sarkozy win in 2007... Wink
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« Reply #96 on: November 08, 2009, 06:34:25 pm »
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Well, as we say in Quebec, j'ai mon voyage of the South, so let's move on for a bit now.

Kentucky

Cumberland Plateau and Eastern Kentucky

The working-class and poor counties of Appalachia (coal country) would be much like West Virginia and a strongly Socialist area with a strong PS machine (like in the Pas-de-Calais). So, that would kind of limit any Sarkozy-populist effect. However, you might see a Henin-Beaumont type thing these days in these parts, and in 2009, I think you could see the FN ahead of the UMP in a lot of places.

South Central Kentucky

This is an old unionist area dating to the Civil War, but a rather poor and working-class populist area. The UMP would be strong here, and I think Sarkozy would have been a perfect candidate in 2007 'round these parts, but bling-bling wouldn't play well anymore so you could see a protest vote for DLR, the FN or MPF (though SC Kentucky isn't a hardcore conservanutty area). I tend to privilege DLR for these parts.

Northern Kentucky

An affluent white-collar area outside of Cincinnati, so predictably strong UMP. The rural areas would be less straight forward, with some old PS support in a few areas (places like Ashland).

Bluegrass Country

A swing area between UMP and PS. The rural areas south of Lexington tend to the right, those north of Lexington tend to the Socialists. Lexington might have been UMP in a distant past, but the city proper would be Socialist (and Green in June 2009); as would Frankfort. The suburbs would be right-wing.

Louisville

Louisville itself would be a PS town, with strong PS support in black areas of the city and working-class white areas. The UMP would dominate its suburbs, including the very affluent Oldham County.

Western Kentucky

This is an old Dixiecrat area, so one would assume the Socialists would be dominant on paper but the region would be a swing region in reality. The PS would be strong in the old coal mining areas and probably slightly weaker in tobacco country. There would be 'yellow dog Socialist' support in the Purchase.

I think the PS would carry Kentucky in 2007, by a narrow margin again, thanks to the machine support in old coal mining areas and limited urban support for Sarkozy in Lexington, Louisville and Frankfort (places which aren't extremely hard to win for a good right-wing candidate, for the most part). Map probably not too dissimilar to the 2004 Senate map or soemthing.



OHIO next! Fabien will appreciate Wink
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« Reply #97 on: November 09, 2009, 03:57:49 am »
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Oh, Kentucky is already a very fine reading. Really.

I'm not so sure the margin would have been narrow for the PS, even in 2007.
And well, wouldn't influence area of Cincinnati be Socialist also, but a DSK-type ?

(yeah, maybe it's because I unconsciously would have wished that all the wings of the PS be represented in only one state Grin)

And I go back to TN: wouldn't it be better to put it in lighter blue on the map ?
(in fact, it's disturbing because TN is UMP only because there is 2 rounds, as, in the first round, the UMP wouldn't have been very high; but that's the game)
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« Reply #98 on: November 09, 2009, 07:42:43 am »
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I'm not so sure the margin would have been narrow for the PS, even in 2007.
And well, wouldn't influence area of Cincinnati be Socialist also, but a DSK-type ?

It seems way too affluent and white-collar suburban conservative for that, frankly. Even a 'urban-suburban' Democrat like Obama did badly there (though less badly than in rural KY).

Quote
And I go back to TN: wouldn't it be better to put it in lighter blue on the map ?

At first, I just color the map according to the runoff result, because it's easier for me to think in those terms at first, but after all is done, I'll post maps of 2007 first round, 2002 first round, 1995, 1988, 1981, 1974, 1969 and 1965...

Quote
(in fact, it's disturbing because TN is UMP only because there is 2 rounds, as, in the first round, the UMP wouldn't have been very high; but that's the game)

Guessed correctly. My first round map had Tennessee going PS in the first round, due to the division on the right: MPF at 8-9%, FN at 13% or so...
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« Reply #99 on: November 09, 2009, 08:17:10 am »
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Louisville

Louisville itself would be a PS town, with strong PS support in black areas of the city and working-class white areas. The UMP would dominate its suburbs, including the very affluent Oldham County.

Louisville would probably have been Communist until relatively recently.
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