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« on: July 21, 2009, 03:11:54 pm »
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What's interesting is to simulate how the US would vote with French political parties. I know that American politics are as unique to the US and French politics are to France, but it's an interesting exercise and of course, all US simulations with more than two parties are much fun.

Which is what I'll try to do. Simulate, say, the 2007 presidential results in the United States without changing any major from French parties.

First problem, the UDF. The UDF is, at its base, a Catholic-Christian democratic party. Obviously, the US is one of the last countries where a Christian democratic party could develop. Still, the UDF had the PR (neoliberals) and the PRV (middle-class bourgeois seculars), but its vote represented more the implantation of Catholicism than it did that of neoliberalism. I will simulate the UDF as it was, though with Bayrou's latest discourse, that of radical centrism and moderate social liberalism.

The UMP can be kept as is, intact. It is obviously much less socially conservative than the Republican Party.

The MPF, renamed MPA, will potentially play a greater role due to its social conservatism (imagining that de Villiers was a Evangelical right rather than Catholic right man) and also its moderate protectionist attitudes.

The FN will kept as is, obviously, potentially placing more emphasis on its social conservatism. And its Pieds-Noirs base will be replaced by something else, you'll see.

The Socialists can be kept intact, though more social democratic. Of course, if the US *did* have French parties, then socialism wouldn't be as much of a swearword as it is today. And as you'll see, there is plenty of room in the US for a social democratic party.

The Greens will play a role, though they'll be less hippie.

PCF less relevant, though more moderate.

CPNT, LO-LCR, MNR and all others are not relevant, even less so than in France.

And I don't want stupid ideological hackish debates or anything of the like in this. It's a fun project.
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2009, 04:37:03 pm »
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And what about DLR ?

It would have a role to play and not a marginal one, mutatis mutandis:
almost nationalist, protectionist, a bit "monroeist", some notes of "social-populism".

Villiers isn't enough to take the place of GOP's diverse right wing.
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2009, 06:32:56 pm »
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And what about DLR ?

It would have a role to play and not a marginal one, mutatis mutandis:
almost nationalist, protectionist, a bit "monroeist", some notes of "social-populism".

Villiers isn't enough to take the place of GOP's diverse right wing.

Gaullism would undoubtedly play well in some parts of the United States, and I've already figured out a number of those places.

Of course, I never meant to suggest that the MPF-type party would be the sole to take the place of the Republican Party's right wing.
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2009, 05:36:28 pm »
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Very interesting topic. It seems very complicated to determine the strength of each french party, but I would try to give my opinion. This analysis is based on the assumption that the US have an electoral system permitting a more than two parties system.

NPA, LO : Very marginal. Would actract neither the ecolo-liberal activist who voted for Nader, nor the traditionnal working class. In fact, they would rapidly turn into sectarian movements...

PCF : A very small attractivity on workers, no more than 1% of votes.

Greens : This would be the only party of the french hard left that has a chance to play a part in American politics. This would almost correspond to Nader's 2000 voters, I would say about 5%.

PS : would be really strong only outside the deep South and the West. Could be the second major party in the New England and the third in liberal-moderate states. Marginal in other states. Almost 10%.

UDF, MoDem : Would be one of the major parties, getting solid majorities in New England and in the West Coast. Could be also strrong in Northeast and Midwest, but absoultely not in the South. It would almost correspond to the progressive wing of the Democratic party, and get something like 25%.

UMP : Would be considered as a centrist party, and would gather the most moderate members of the GOP and the dems ( from Bill Clinton to John McCain 2000-version ). Reciprocally, the right wing of the UMP ( Sarkozy, Boutin... ) would be moderate republicans and the left wing ( the Chiraquians ) moderate democrats. As a result, it would be a dominant political party, strong anywhere outside the New England and the Deep South. I would see in getting something like 30% of the votes.

MPF : would be far stronger in US, gathering the majority of the conservative wing of the GOP, and so be a political force in the South and in states like UT, ID and WY. The social conservatives would have their party, getting at least 25%

FN : The traditionnal far-rightist movement in France would not be as strong as in France, and I see it as a marginal party in the US. It couldn't get more than 2%.
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2009, 06:09:14 pm »
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As for the 2007 presdential election, here are two scenarioes, based on these initial results :
Nicholas Sarkozy : 39%
Philip Villers : 22%
Francis Bayroo : 20%
Ségolène [could not find a traduction] Royal : 7%
Dominique Voynet : 6%
John M. Penn : 1%
Mary-George Buffet : 1%
Others : 3%

Sarkozy would be a perfect candidate for UMP, getting many conservative votes. At the same time, Bayroo would be considere as too liberal and realize a very bad performance. As for Royal, his pointless campaign would ruin any chances for the PS to become a major party.


Now, we have two possible scenarioes : either the electoral system used is the french one, or it's the American one.

In the first case, we'd have an Sarkozy-Villers 2nd round. The leftist voters, who had failed to get a candidate, would haf abstain, refuing to chose between "bonnet blanc and blanc bonnet", half reluctantly vote for Sarko, to avoid the threat of Villers :
Sarkozy : 63%
Villers : 37%

In the second case, here's what the electoral map could look like :



Sarkozy : 357
Villers : 92
Bayroo : 89

Closest states :
- Texas : narrow win of Sarkozy against Villers because of his anti-immigration stances that pleases the american natives here.
- New York : Bayroo's loss in a so progressive state show his being a really bad choice for UDF, though the addition of PS, UDF and green vote would be majoritary.
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2009, 06:39:33 pm »
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Let's start.

This post will be revised upon completion of the project

Maine

The north has a populist feel to it and is more working-class, from what I gather, so it would generally vote Socialist. The UDF could carry Aroostook, though the Socialists would do well there too. The UMP wins rural areas, potato country, and wealthy areas on the coast. The Greens are quite strong along the coast and in Portland, and would have probably come second in the 2009 'Euro' elections (presumably a North-Central American Parliament here!). Portland would probably be PS now, though right-wing in the past.

Overall: Lean UMP, and Sarkozy would have carried in 2007.

New Hampshire

The UMP is strong in wealthy communities with a strong number of Boston emigres and what's left of rural NH. The Socialists would win communities developed on the textile industry. Coos County is a UDF stronghold, though with a rising PS.

Overall: Lean UMP, and Sarkozy would have carried in 2007.
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2009, 06:10:39 am »
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Fine.
Do you intend to give us an overall trend for each State ?
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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2009, 05:25:45 pm »
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Fine.
Do you intend to give us an overall trend for each State ?

Ah, yes. That. Anyways, nice to see interest in this project.

This post will be revised upon completion of the project

Vermont

A hard state to pin down in terms of French parties. Vermont is rather homogeneous (very muchso in terms of race, less so in terms of ethnic origins nowadays). It has a strong independent, slightly libertarian streak, which makes it hard to pin down in the 3rd and 4th Republic eras. It would probably have been a ARD stronghold during the Third Republic, though the Radicals would have polled well and it would have been a Republican strongholds in the 1870s-1880s. In the Fourth Republic era, it would likely have been a strong state for the CNI, Radicals and perhaps the MRP. That being said, the old SFIO, with its rural anti-centralist appeal, would have always had a base in Vermont though I doubt the Programme Commun would have helped the PS in 1973-1981. The right's shift to the harder right and Sarkozyst sabre-rattling on immigration and other issues of that type and the PS' gains with middle-class white voters would have given the PS the edge starting in 1988 and solidifying throughout the 90s and the 2000s.

Overall: Would have certainly voted heavily (60+) for Royal in 2007, with the right registering a big swing against her in 2007. While there's room for local UMP strength even today, Vermont would be solidly PS in 2010-2012.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts, due to its very high percentage of Catholics, would have been a UDF stronghold. The UDF would have been strong quasi-universally, taking Irish voters in Boston, rural voters, and working-class voters. Nowadays, the UDF's strength is much reduced, maybe 30-35% for Bayrou in 2007, concentrated in solidly UDF rural MA. The UMP wins in affluent Boston suburbia and affluent coastal communities in Cape Cod and so forth. The Socialists would have gained a ground in minority areas (Boston, mostly. Probably gained the local govt from the UDF-CDS in 1989 or so) and in liberal areas. It's actually a tricky state to work with.

My estimate for CDs gives the UDF 4, the PS 4 and the UMP 2.

Overall: Bayrou's voters in the first round vote Socialist in the runoff by a decent margin, giving Royal an important margin here in the runoff.
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2009, 06:18:14 pm »
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Fine.
Do you intend to give us an overall trend for each State ?

Ah, yes. That. Anyways, nice to see interest in this project.


I've understood that's not your aim, of course, but in states as Vermont or Idaho, I'm not a great specialist in local strongholds or fighting areas, so I wouldn't be able to discuss in details, hence an overall trend.

But in Ohio, PA, FA, CO or Missouri, I will grasp even the local details Wink .
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2009, 06:25:29 pm »
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Vermont

A hard state to pin down in terms of French parties. It would probably have been a ARD stronghold during the Third Republic and later a CNI (or RGR) stronghold. The influx of liberals from New England and the CNI's move to the right would have shifted the state to the Socialists - though liberal progressive 'champagne' socialists and not working-class socialists. The PRG (if they bothered to run candidates) and, in particular the Greens do very well, and the Greens would probably have won the state in 2009. The UMP is limited to very wealthy communities and maybe Essex County. The UDF-CDS would have done well in the Catholic areas in the past, but would be a non-factor now obviously.

Overall: One of Royal's best states in the runoff. Voynet's best state in the first round (5-6% vs. 1% nationwide) and Mamere would have done very well (10-13%). Perhaps Sarkozy's worst state, and Royal mightve broken 40% here in the first round.
Cohn-Bendit (let's say he'd have 2 nationalities, Canadian -but from where ?- and American) would be cherished in Vermont.


Massachusetts

Massachusetts, due to its very high percentage of Catholics, would have been a UDF stronghold. The UDF would have been strong quasi-universally, taking Irish voters in Boston, rural voters, and working-class voters. Nowadays, the UDF's strength is much reduced, maybe 25-30% for Bayrou in 2007. The UMP wins in affluent Boston suburbia and affluent coastal communities in Cape Cod and so forth. The Socialists would have gained a lot of ground in Catholic working class territory, and even 'champagne' type socialism. Greenies also do well in liberal yuppie land, wherever that may be.

Overall: Bayrou's voters in the first round vote Socialist in the runoff by a large margin, giving Royal a very big margin here in the runoff.


Don't you think on the contrary that MoDem would do better than the UDF, preventing the PS to rise in MA ? And would be on par with UMP in Boston suburbs (but not in Cape Cod and the coast, though).
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2009, 09:08:15 pm »
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Massachusetts

Massachusetts, due to its very high percentage of Catholics, would have been a UDF stronghold. The UDF would have been strong quasi-universally, taking Irish voters in Boston, rural voters, and working-class voters. Nowadays, the UDF's strength is much reduced, maybe 25-30% for Bayrou in 2007. The UMP wins in affluent Boston suburbia and affluent coastal communities in Cape Cod and so forth. The Socialists would have gained a lot of ground in Catholic working class territory, and even 'champagne' type socialism. Greenies also do well in liberal yuppie land, wherever that may be.

Overall: Bayrou's voters in the first round vote Socialist in the runoff by a large margin, giving Royal a very big margin here in the runoff.


Don't you think on the contrary that MoDem would do better than the UDF, preventing the PS to rise in MA ? And would be on par with UMP in Boston suburbs (but not in Cape Cod and the coast, though).

Not really, though you're right the UDF would be stronger in the Boston suburbia - quite Catholic areas, though they would be hurt by the big fall in church attendance in MA.
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2009, 04:45:45 pm »
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Rhode Island

Catholic working-class stronghold. Would have been a UDF stronghold for a long time, though with decline in church attendance, you would see the Socialists making some important gains and UDF voters would be more likely to vote for Socialists in runoffs after, say, 1980 or 1984. The UMP is limited to some very wealthy towns and that's it.

Overall: Royal would have won the runoff in 2007, and Bayrou would have won the state in the first round.

Connecticut

Would be an important swing state. The UMP does well in wealthy New York suburbia and other wealthy places, the PS does well in inner city Hartford (minorities) and also surrounding areas which used to be industrial textile towns. Also does well in Bridgeport, obviously. The UDF would be worth around 15-25% depending on the election and would be relatively stable and geographically equally distributed. Greens do well in Litchfield etc.

Overall: Sarkozy narrowly wins in 2007.

Here's how I see it up to now in the 2007 runoff:

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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2009, 04:06:18 am »
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Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2009, 04:18:06 am »
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Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.
Yeah !
Great Plains and Rocky Mountains also ! And OH, IN, MI, PA...
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2009, 10:46:14 am »
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Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Not really : MPF strongholds.
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2009, 10:55:07 am »
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Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Not really : MPF strongholds.

Wait and see, please.
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2009, 12:32:26 pm »
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Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Not really : MPF strongholds.

The US isn't as right-wing as you think.
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2009, 05:08:46 pm »
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Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Not really : MPF strongholds.

The US isn't as right-wing as you think.

The US no, the South yes.
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2009, 01:18:45 pm »
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New York

An interesting state... let's break it down by region:

New York City proper (the 5 boroughs)

NYC would probably be a reliably Socialist city and I see the Socialist local administration in NYC being very similar to the (in)famous Socialist administrations in Marseille (you know, the deals with the mafia).

PS probably breaks 60% by the first round in black areas and would have gotten a sizeable share of the middle-class vote, obviously. Manhattan's West Side and NY-8 is Bobo land and there's a big gay community, though the UMP would have gotten a 9/11 boost (presumably, depending on the storyline this adopts) and they would get the Jewish vote. NY-8 is also the FN's best district and the UMP does well in the Brooklyn parts of it (Bensonhurst, Borough Park). The 1997 runoff in NY-8 would have been PS-FN, maybe the RPR makes it in.

CDs like 15, 16 - poor Hispanic (Catholic) areas could be especially interesting. They would probably have been solid UDF-CDS in the distant past (16 especially, not 15, it used to be black-land), but I get the impression that they would vote PS due to the UDF's alliance with the mainstream right and because it's very low-income. Plus, they would probably have been the top target of the Socialist machine and there's also a significant black  I could see legislative runoffs in CDs like 

The UMP would be strong in the affluent parts of Manhattan (Upper East Side) and Queens (I think NY-5 would actually be UMP), the Brooklyn parts of NY-8 (see above. Sarkozy would have done very well for a right-wing candidate there), NY-9 (a lean UMP district, quite safe. Also a large UDF vote in the Irish areas - Breezy Point) and Staten Island (see below). CD-14 and that area would have been UMP land until very recently, but it would have switched Socialist (champagne socialist) in 2007 probably - it reminds me of that very wealthy professional Grenoble district which elected a Socialist in 2007.

You could see a rump FN vote in some areas in Brooklyn (think those areas which swung from Kerry to McCain in '08), concentrated in Orthodox Jewish areas.

I'm not a specialist on Staten Island, but I have the feel it could be interesting. Probably UMP nationally and even locally where the UMP would lead the law-and-order campaign which, IIRC, works well there. The Socialists are of course strong with African-Americans (though it's a small base), and depending on the candidate and the year, they do well with white working-class voters. Staten Island is a big Italian place, very Catholic, but I think the UDF would do rather poorly compared to other Catholic areas, being too moderate socially and the right's law-and-order stuff would work well. Also, probably one of the only areas in the regions where the MPF is semi-relevant (as opposed to being a complete joke).

Congressional districts 2007:

All Socialist except: 4, 5, 9, 13 (UMP)

Outer Long Island

Ultra-solid UMP strongholds. Think Neuilly-sur-Seine, Saint-Cloud and so forth. The Socialists are 'strong' (relative term) in the poorer areas and black parts of NY-4 (which is also NYC, whatever, sue me), the unionized areas of the 3rd, the 2nd (the least solid of the UMP districts). Still ultra-safe UMP, overall. FN polls okayish.

NYC suburbia

Generally solid UMP, but the Socialists would always have had some strength in what working class/racial minority enclaves there are. Since I seem to analyzing by CD an awful lot, the 17th through 19th are UMP, 18 and 19 being solid UMP and the 17th less so due to it including black parts of the Bronx (solidly PS).

Upstate

Overall, lean UMP area. Agricultural areas and white-collar wealthy suburbs of various cities are obviously UMP, while the PS would have a relatively solid base in the manufacturing-dependent areas in Albany, Rochester, Buffalo, Troy and also poll well in places like Ithaca (Cornell U). The Socialists would hold, quite narrowly, the 25th and 27th though I suppose they would have gained the 27th in 2007 after losing it in 2002. The 28th, of course, is Socialist country.

OVERALL, New York would have voted Royal narrowly in 2007, because Sarkozy would have been a rather poor candidate Upstate (though better in Brooklyn etc). I would say, however, by my estimate, that 15 of the CDs are UMP-held.



MA write-up has been revised, btw.
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2009, 04:36:55 pm »
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A very, very fine post on NY !
I really look forward to reading PA, OH, IN, MI, etc, almost everything in fact (except maybe the West coast) !

Just 2 questions:

- don't you think that in Harlem and some parts of Bronx, the PCF would have some good results ?
I mean, the PCF of feudalties, of clans, of "families", as in Bouches-du-Rhône or in Valenciennois.

- in rural upstate, don't you think the MPF would have up to 10-12%, wouldn't be only a "complete joke" ?
Those agricultural areas, very traditional but quite economically modern (IIRC), might behave along the inner Vendee line.
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2009, 04:41:31 pm »
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- don't you think that in Harlem and some parts of Bronx, the PCF would have some good results ?
I mean, the PCF of feudalties, of clans, of "families", as in Bouches-du-Rhône or in Valenciennois.

Yeah, you make a good point which I conveniently forgot Wink It all depends on the PCF candidate, o/c.

Quote
- in rural upstate, don't you think the MPF would have up to 10-12%, wouldn't be only a "complete joke" ?

The agricultural areas upstate are either quite Catholic (remember, the MPF is an evangelical Protestant party here) or Yankee Republicans. Doesn't strike me as socially conservative and evangelical conservatism doesn't seem to play well.
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2009, 04:55:32 pm »
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Quote
- in rural upstate, don't you think the MPF would have up to 10-12%, wouldn't be only a "complete joke" ?

The agricultural areas upstate are either quite Catholic (remember, the MPF is an evangelical Protestant party here) or Yankee Republicans. Doesn't strike me as socially conservative and evangelical conservatism doesn't seem to play well.
Oops, sorry.
So, forget this second question.
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2009, 07:43:52 pm »
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New Jersey

A UMP stronghold, surprisingly. The UMP does best in rural areas, the affluent NYC suburbia (and suburbia in general, few exceptions o/c) and the wealthy coastal communities. The PS would be rather confined to Newark, Camden, parts of Atlantic City, Paterson, Trenton and various towns with an industrial tradition.

The PCF would do well in Essex County's working-class and minority population areas. NJ-10 is probably a Communist-held seat!

As in New York City proper, the Hispanic Catholic population in Hudson County, despite the apperances, would probably have been the target of Socialist machines (Newark would of course be a PS stronghold municipally) in the past and would vote Socialist, though not so much PCF - though I imagine Hudson County electing PCF deputies in the '50's or so. Maybe.

The FN polls well in Camden and the crime-ridden cities. I imagine a number of cantons in Camden, Newark would have been PCF-FN or PS-FN runoffs in the past, less so now.

Overall: One of Sarkozy's best states in 2007, but doesn't break 60%. One of the FN's worst results in memory.

Delaware

The UMP does well in Dover and Wilmington suburbia and wealthier inner-city areas if such things exists, as well as all the rural areas of the state. Overall, this gives DE a narrow UMP lean but the Socialists are a sizeable electorate with strength in inner-city Wilmington and Dover, cities that either have a union tradition or industrial tradition (plus a small but important minority population). The PS probably would have won the seat in 1997.

Overall: Sarkozy does surprisingly well for a rightist in a state which is quite polarized electorally, probably due to gains in old blue-collar areas.

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« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2009, 08:18:19 am »
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Very good analysis.
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« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2009, 12:56:20 pm »
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Sure, difficult to put some UDF or MoDem in NJ and DE.

What is fine in your topic is that, apart from the West Coast, it is finer and finer (as New England is too "European" in a sense...).
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