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« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2009, 07:16:22 pm »
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Pennsylvania

An interesting state... let's break it down by region:

Philadelphia City

Hardcore Socialist city, in Communist hands until the '70's or so. The Socialists strong quasi-universally, especially in industrial areas and minority areas (here too, the Hispanics would have entered the very powerful PS-PCF machine). The UDF would be the second party, probably, strong in what remains of inner-city Irish and Italian neighborhoods in Philly. The UMP would limited to 'wealthy' areas in the city limits, though that would be a very weak base and probably wouldn't even win that. The 1st and 2nd are very safe left-wing seats, with the PCF probably holding or having held in the recent past the 1st.

Philadelphia suburbia

Swing region between Socialists and UMP-UDF, though the gentrification of the Socialists would be particularly pronounced here. While in, say, 1978 or 1988, the suburbia would have been mostly UDF-RPR, today it would lean Socialist. The UMP remains strong in rural and white-collar (white) wealthier suburbia, the UDF is the main right-wing party in Italian Catholic areas (mostly the 7th). The Socialists would have made gains in the middle-class suburbia in addition to their traditional base in blue-collar areas (Coatesville, Delaware County municipalities close to the river and Philly proper, old steel communities in Bucks County).

Good ol' PA-13 would be a real swing district in our scenario, with a narrow Socialist advantage, but most of the inner suburban constituencies would be swing districts with the PS sweeping them up (possibly) in a year like 1997 and the right (UMP, UDF or RPR) sweeping them up in a year like 1993 or 2002.

Exurbs are strongly UMP with the MPF doing very well too (especially in the batsh**t crazy Dutch areas - probably holds the 16th district). The Socialists would manage to get into runoffs due to Reading, though the UDF does well in Reading too (Hispanic Catholic pop)

Lehigh Valley

Generally working-class industrial area, so Socialist advantage, but with a social conservative lean means that the MPF is also strong and takes a fair share of Socialists votes, though the PS wins here, provided their candidate is more socially conservative and isn't an inner-city liberal.

Sarkozy is a great candidate for the Lehigh Valley. Le Pen also probably did well here since 1988 or so, or whenever industrial areas declined.

Rural Pennsylvania

Strongly UMP areas, though not so much MPF as it doesn't strike me as batsh**t insane socially conservative areas like Dutch Country does. In terms of districts, the 9th is one of the UMP's safest seats nationally, but the 5th is much more competitive. The UDF is very strong in Elk County (Catholic enclave) and the Socialists have residue strength in Centre County (students) and some manufacturing enclaves in a district which is still very blue-collar.

Coal Country

Strongly Socialist working-class areas with a very weakened PCF still somewhat relevant. Somewhat socially conservative, so the MPF is a definite factor in this region. Rural regions in the Poconos are more UMP and the UMP does well in new New York City/Philly exurbs, though the MPF is also strong and the Socialists can win districts like the 10th in landslide victories nationally.

Monongahela and Alleghany Coalfields

Socialist stronghold, though the FN would have done well in areas hurt by the decline of coal mining and heavy industry. UMP stronger in areas where there has been gentrification and post-recession economic development.

Pittsburgh and suburbia

Generally Socialist-leaning city, since I suppose the Irish Catholic working-class would be more likely to vote left-wing due to strong unionization here. The UDF, though, is the second party here and the UMP is basically a non-factor here. Communists weak due to high Catholic tradition here. The FN probably does relatively well.

UMP and of course the MPF, however, are strong in socially conservative Pittsburgh suburbia, and the MPF probably holds the 18th district.

In terms of districts, it's pretty straightforward, with the 4th being the only real swing district. Historically Socialist land, do to steel mills and industrial Mercer County, the UMP is a relevant force in newer white-collar and wealthy Pittsburgh suburbia.

Erie

Erie County itself is obviously a Socialist stronghold, due to an industrial and minority history. The suburbs and surrounding rural areas are obviously UMP.

OVERALL, Sarkozy probably narrowly wins the state in 2007 with a very good result for the right (Jospin probably won here in 1995, Mitterrand obviously won in 1988) due to inroads in blue-collar conservative Lehigh Valley and western PA industrial area/the coalfield. PA remains, of course, a major swing state and a crucial state in any election.



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« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2009, 05:49:13 am »
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YEAH ! Just YEAH !
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« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2009, 05:53:02 am »
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YEAH ! Just YEAH !

Thanks!
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« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2009, 06:40:39 am »
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Are you planning to do some county maps ? It would be really great. Smiley
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« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2009, 08:21:15 am »
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Are you planning to do some county maps ? It would be really great. Smiley
Great, of course... But maybe our Hash need to... live, just live, apart from posting in here ?!?

Do you realize the HUGE amount of work and time to make those maps (and that's not just a Dem/GOP one where, more or else, when you've made one, youve made the other one) ?

Try to be happy with what we already have, which is very, very fine.
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« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2009, 01:04:53 pm »
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Are you planning to do some county maps ? It would be really great. Smiley
Great, of course... But maybe our Hash need to... live, just live, apart from posting in here ?!?

Do you realize the HUGE amount of work and time to make those maps (and that's not just a Dem/GOP one where, more or else, when you've made one, youve made the other one) ?

Try to be happy with what we already have, which is very, very fine.

You're right, but I was just speaking about some summary and imprecise maps to figure what he has written about the diffierent regions in a state.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #31 on: August 04, 2009, 08:33:35 am »
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Maryland

Maryland would have been old RadSoc land in the past, though mostly of right-wing stock, meaning that it would currently lean UMP as a whole. The Eastern Shore would now be UMP, after having been the base of the Radicals in the past. And western MD would be generally UMP except for maybe what remains of manufacturing and industry in places like Allegany County and maybe some suburban areas.

Baltimore City would, however, be a PS stronghold due to minorities and its higher poverty rate, though Baltimore County (the suburbia) would be UMP strongholds: old wealthy suburban communities with some Jewish communities (Jews, moderate ones, would vote UMP strongly) and communities with national defense concerns.

What is interesting is that the UMP would still maintain a good share of the middle-class and more well-off black vote in places like Baltimore suburbia (and even some parts of the city) and Prince George County. However, the gentrification of the PS and its suburban growth would have made big inroads into this relatively volatile right-wing demographic.

What is also interesting is that many CDs I would classify to be 'swing' districts, meaning that you could have a very lopsided margin for either left or right in a landslide year. For example, the right could have been reduced to 1 or 2 seats in 1997.

OVERALL, Sarkozy does average for a UMP candidate with, say, around 52-53% of the vote.


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« Reply #32 on: August 04, 2009, 09:20:46 am »
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West Virginia

Socialist stronghold, predictably enough, and probably Mitterrand's old electoral base. The UMP might poll well in wealthier urban centres, growing DC suburbia and rural places not influenced by heavy industry and coal mining. However, it's likely the MPF is the largest right-wing party, especially in mining areas.

Overall: Royal's best state in the runoff.



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« Reply #33 on: August 04, 2009, 09:27:54 am »
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West Virginia

Socialist stronghold, predictably enough, and probably Mitterrand's old electoral base. The UMP might poll well in wealthier urban centres, growing DC suburbia and rural places not influenced by heavy industry and coal mining. However, it's likely the MPF is the largest right-wing party, especially in mining areas.

Overall: Royal's best state in the runoff.





I tend to disagree with this one. I couldn't see the PS even close to be competitive in a so socially conservatve state. Even if WV is quite economically liberal, it wouldn't be enough to vote for PS.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #34 on: August 04, 2009, 09:39:58 am »
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West Virginia

Socialist stronghold, predictably enough, and probably Mitterrand's old electoral base. The UMP might poll well in wealthier urban centres, growing DC suburbia and rural places not influenced by heavy industry and coal mining. However, it's likely the MPF is the largest right-wing party, especially in mining areas.

Overall: Royal's best state in the runoff.





I tend to disagree with this one. I couldn't see the PS even close to be competitive in a so socially conservatve state. Even if WV is quite economically liberal, it wouldn't be enough to vote for PS.

Anybody would disagree with your assessment. Anybody would tell you that WV is a stronghold for any left-wing social democratic party. Ask Al, afleitch, Alcon, anybody.

(on a side not, economics far outweigh societal junk in WV)

And please stop using the term 'economically liberal'.
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« Reply #35 on: August 04, 2009, 10:21:47 am »
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Anybody would disagree with your assessment. Anybody would tell you that WV is a stronghold for any left-wing social democratic party. Ask Al, afleitch, anybody.

Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.


Quote
And please stop using the term 'economically liberal'.

In this situation, I agree that it wasn't at all appropriate. But I don't think the french notion of "liberalism" is really more correct than american one. Both are uncorrec, I did a long post once to explain that, but I'm too lazy to search it. I'll try not to use this term in this kind of situations.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #36 on: August 04, 2009, 10:25:19 am »
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Anybody would disagree with your assessment. Anybody would tell you that WV is a stronghold for any left-wing social democratic party. Ask Al, afleitch, anybody.

Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

Obama is a black inner city liberal.

Anyways, if you don't like my assessment, do your own. I frankly don't feel the need to convince anybody about this, nor do I feel the need to enter ideological debates for something designed to be a bit of fun.

Nobody is forcing you to agree with my assessment. It's my assessment, and I do what I please with it and what I think is right. If you don't like it, I'm not forcing you to like it or even read it if it's so woefully inaccurate. Please.
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« Reply #37 on: August 04, 2009, 10:39:30 am »
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Anybody would disagree with your assessment. Anybody would tell you that WV is a stronghold for any left-wing social democratic party. Ask Al, afleitch, anybody.

Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

Obama is a black inner city liberal.

Anyways, if you don't like my assessment, do your own. Nobody is forcing you to agree with my assessment. It's my assessment, and I do what I please with it and what I think is right. If you don't like it, I'm not forcing you to like it or even read it if it's so woefully inaccurate. Please.


Could I ask you why you are getting so harsh ? I was just giving my opinion about your assessment, that I found very good for other states. What's wrong with that ? That was neither a personal critic nor a mark of contempt for your very good and interesting work.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #38 on: August 04, 2009, 10:46:46 am »
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Could I ask you why you are getting so harsh ?

Because I'm cranky and because you're taking this as if it was something real.

I frankly don't really care if you disagree with my assessment, since this is all supposed to be a fun project for me and readers. And I already warned about a number of things like this in my OP

WV is Socialist and it will remain such until I die.
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« Reply #39 on: August 04, 2009, 01:29:40 pm »
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Could I ask you why you are getting so harsh ?

Because I'm cranky and because you're taking this as if it was something real.

I frankly don't really care if you disagree with my assessment, since this is all supposed to be a fun project for me and readers. And I already warned about a number of things like this in my OP

WV is Socialist and it will remain such until I die.

Excuse me, I thought the purpose of a forum was to discuss and confront different points of view about a certain argument. But you apparently don't appreciate opinions that disagree with your own analysis.
As you prefer.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #40 on: August 04, 2009, 03:37:34 pm »
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Could I ask you why you are getting so harsh ?

Because I'm cranky and because you're taking this as if it was something real.

I frankly don't really care if you disagree with my assessment, since this is all supposed to be a fun project for me and readers. And I already warned about a number of things like this in my OP

WV is Socialist and it will remain such until I die.
Cheesy
This simple sentence in the end made me laugh !! Fine after a hard day...

Anyway, couldn't we compare WV with a mix of Allier and Puy-de-Dôme ?
Or Pas-de-Calais, with rural areas heavily with the traditional right, but an overall situation heavily to the left because of old industrial and mining areas.

Maybe even a bit of FN in WV: I mean, some areas with, on the right, MPF first, FN second, UMP third !

Oh, it makes me think that, even better than the overall map (er, sorry for having pushed for it, and not having thought about this first),
a national map for each of the 7 big parties, not at all with real results or percentages, but just a distribution between "strongholds", "solid areas", "so so", weak areas", "zero zones", would be very fine.
In the end, of course, and if you have time Wink
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« Reply #41 on: August 04, 2009, 05:03:00 pm »
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Virginia

NoVA

A swing region, since recently, between the UMP and Socialists. The Socialists poll well in Alexandria and Arlington, and that since quite some years (I'm not sure if this would have been RadSoc land in the past, probably not) and places with a high minority population. The UMP would poll well in the NoVA exurbs, the uber-rich parts and rural areas that extend to the WV border. Though a candidate like Sarkozy is crap for NoVA and there's the eternal gentrification of the PS...

The Greens sweep NoVA in the 2009 'Euros'

Shenandoah Valley

UMP stronghold. Socialists poll well in slightly more blue-collar and unionized Roanoke, and that's it. Roanoke suburbia, though, is uber-UMP.

Southwest VA

Socialist stronghold in mining country. The MPF would poll well, probably making it the second force here after the PS. The FN is also strong, UMP less so and based mostly in Roanoke exurbs and rural counties.

Southside VA

Would have been a Socialist place for a long time, but the growing progressivism and strong religious practice here would have turned it to the MPF, though the black areas in Emporia County, Brunswick County and so forth would be PS strongholds.

Hampton Roads

The Socialists are strong in Norfolk, which is poorer and has a higher minority population, and also in shipbuilding areas in Newport News, Hampton and also Norfolk. The UMP does well in military areas, Virginia Beach and the peninsula.

Richmond and suburbs

Richmond, with its very high black population, is a Socialist stronghold. The suburbs lean UMP, though the Greens and Radicals would poll well in Henrico County.

Eastern Shore

An old UMP stronghold, the UMP polls well in the far exurbs of DC/NoVA and in rural areas. However, growing suburbia nearer to NoVA would help the Socialists here (see above) which would already be strongish in the areas about the Hampton Roads.

OVERALL, Sarkozy wins in 2007 though Royal does very well in NoVA and that strength also swings VA-11 in the legislative elections. Similar runoff margin (and map, kind-of) to 2004.




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« Reply #42 on: August 04, 2009, 05:10:18 pm »
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A great one !  Thanks.

Don't you think Bayrou and MoDem could have made some inroads in 2007 in the northern "Washingtonian" VA ?
A local base for Marielle de Sarnez, for example ?

Sure, with 2009, come the Greens, but just before that.
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« Reply #43 on: August 04, 2009, 05:15:12 pm »
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Don't you think Bayrou and MoDem could have made some inroads in 2007 in the northern "Washingtonian" VA ?
A local base for Marielle de Sarnez, for example ?

Too few Catholics there, though NOVA would have been Bayrou's 'best' region, so to say.
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« Reply #44 on: August 04, 2009, 05:22:57 pm »
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Don't you think Bayrou and MoDem could have made some inroads in 2007 in the northern "Washingtonian" VA ?
A local base for Marielle de Sarnez, for example ?

Too few Catholics there, though NOVA would have been Bayrou's 'best' region, so to say.
Oh, that's just because I see MoDem as less strictly Catholic than UDF. And Sarnez, sociologically would be fine in Alexandria...

And what about a comparison between WV and Puy-de-Dôme/Allier or Pas-de-Calais ?
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« Reply #45 on: August 04, 2009, 05:28:30 pm »
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WV is more Pas-de-Calais, though the WV 'prefecture' is more right-wing than the Pas-de-Calais' prefecture (mainly due to lack of Guy Mollet in WV Wink)

I need to brush up my knowledge on Puy-de-Dôme voting patterns (I charge you with that!), but it doesn't really fit in well with WV, though Allier could be a nice comparison.
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« Reply #46 on: August 05, 2009, 10:18:51 pm »
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Presumably, the SFIO would've polled total crap in WV in the 1960s.

Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Not really : MPF strongholds.

The US isn't as right-wing as you think.

The US no, the South yes.

Southerners aren't pieds-noirs.

Word of advice: Hashemite isn't very pleasant when he's upset.
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« Reply #47 on: August 06, 2009, 04:35:32 am »
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This thread is great. Please, Hashemite, don't stop before you've done every state!
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« Reply #48 on: August 07, 2009, 05:24:08 am »
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We need an update !
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« Reply #49 on: August 09, 2009, 11:46:15 am »
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Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

What you need to understand is that the basis of American voting patterns are often very different to European ones; class is a bigger factor in Europe, while the sort of cultural issues that have dominated recent elections in America and which have a huge impact on voting patterns are broadly irrevelant in Europe. If we assume that America has French political parties, then it's reasonable to assume that this would be true of America also; after all, it's no more absurd than assuming that America has French parties Smiley

Anyway, how would you expect an overwhelmingly working class area with a history of coal mining and historically strong unions to vote were it in France or Belgium?
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