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Antonio V
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« Reply #50 on: August 09, 2009, 06:08:16 pm »
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Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

What you need to understand is that the basis of American voting patterns are often very different to European ones; class is a bigger factor in Europe, while the sort of cultural issues that have dominated recent elections in America and which have a huge impact on voting patterns are broadly irrevelant in Europe. If we assume that America has French political parties, then it's reasonable to assume that this would be true of America also; after all, it's no more absurd than assuming that America has French parties Smiley

Anyway, how would you expect an overwhelmingly working class area with a history of coal mining and historically strong unions to vote were it in France or Belgium?

Doesn't FN poll also well in this sort of regions ? Didn't Sarkozy win Pas-de-Calais in 2007 ? Even in France, working class areas are not socialist strongholds.


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« Reply #51 on: August 09, 2009, 06:45:56 pm »
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Even in France, working class areas are not socialist strongholds.

wtf

Doesn't FN poll also well in this sort of regions ?

Yes. But it doesn't make them less left-wing in the long run.

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Didn't Sarkozy win Pas-de-Calais in 2007 ?

No. In the first round he got a plurality but just 'cause the Trots polled like 10% together.
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« Reply #52 on: August 10, 2009, 05:23:11 am »
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Even in France, working class areas are not socialist strongholds.

wtf

Not necessarily, and not all of them.
 

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Didn't Sarkozy win Pas-de-Calais in 2007 ?

No. In the first round he got a plurality but just 'cause the Trots polled like 10% together.

Sorry, I confused with Nord, that he won in 2nd round. That's even more representative.
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« Reply #53 on: August 10, 2009, 07:41:35 am »
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Even in France, working class areas are not socialist strongholds.

wtf

Not necessarily, and not all of them.

The big exceptions (rural Alsace, say) are mostly heavily Catholic.

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Sorry, I confused with Nord, that he won in 2nd round. That's even more representative.

Not really; Sarko only won Nord because of Lille suburbia.
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« Reply #54 on: August 14, 2009, 05:30:36 pm »
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A Note about the (Deep) South

However wrong it may be and not matter how many accusations of anti-socialism I get, this simulation will assume that the SFIO would have taken the place of the OTL Democratic Party in the South. You would see people like Déat, Doriot, and Chautemps became segregationists and Dixiecrats in the 1940s and 1950s. It is far from a perfect fit, but it is the best one imaginable. In addition, the quasi-racist and nationalist PCF of the 1970s would also have been a perfect fit in large areas of the South.

The role of the old Republican Party in the South (lol) is taken by the centre-right, nowadays the UMP, which is the party of the more affluent and suburban white Southerner while the poorer, more blue-collar Southerner is divided between the PS, MPF and FN (the FN being stronger with those in heavy industry).

Next: North Carolina
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« Reply #55 on: August 14, 2009, 05:59:10 pm »
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Yes, it's back ! Cheesy
And with a very fine South to come !
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« Reply #56 on: August 14, 2009, 10:24:18 pm »
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North Carolina

Coast and Coastal Plain

The areas directly on the Atlantic would lean UMP, though there would be pockets of Socialist support in the north and Wilmington (a more recent development, and it is highly plausible that it remains a UMP-leaning city) and the UMP would poll strongly in military areas. The Greens would have done well in Wilmington in 2009 and the MoDem would do decently.

Black areas, of course, are strongly Socialist.

Raleigh, Durham and suburbia

The centre of the 'boboisation' of the PS in recent years would be, of course, in Raleigh and Durham. Raleigh would be quite a swing city, and the most UMP of the major cities in NC though the Socialists would have done well picking up seats in Congress (NC-2, most notably) and in the NC General Council. Durham, with its high minority population, is strongly Socialist.

In districts like the 4th, the Greens and PRG would also poll very well. I could see a Radical, probably a LeftRad, holding the seat.

The suburban areas devoid of progressive yuppies would lean UMP, though.

Piedmont

Would lean UMP overall, though the PS maintains a relatively good showing in tobacco country and textile areas. But it certainly isn't what it used to be, and the FN would have made important gains in this area, especially with petit commerçants and artisans.

Triad

Greensboro city is Socialist, but Greensboro suburbia is UMP country. Same with Winston-Salem.

Charlotte

The city is Socialist, and the suburbia is UMP. Though the PS polls well-ish in Gastonia and textile areas.

Blue Ridge Mountains

An old Socialist stronghold, they would be tossup areas today, though maybe with a slight PS lean. The MPF does best here.

OVERALL, it's a swing state with a UMP advantage in recent years. Sarkozy pulls off a narrow win here in 2007.

Also...

District of Columbia

Surprise, surprise. Socialist stronghold. The UMP polls well in western DC.


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« Reply #57 on: August 15, 2009, 06:04:45 am »
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A Note about the (Deep) South

However wrong it may be and not matter how many accusations of anti-socialism I get, this simulation will assume that the SFIO would have taken the place of the OTL Democratic Party in the South. You would see people like Déat, Doriot, and Chautemps became segregationists and Dixiecrats in the 1940s and 1950s. It is far from a perfect fit, but it is the best one imaginable. In addition, the quasi-racist and nationalist PCF of the 1970s would also have been a perfect fit in large areas of the South.

The role of the old Republican Party in the South (lol) is taken by the centre-right, nowadays the UMP, which is the party of the more affluent and suburban white Southerner while the poorer, more blue-collar Southerner is divided between the PS, MPF and FN (the FN being stronger with those in heavy industry).

Next: North Carolina


Seems a reasonable choice. No way you would be anti-socialist. The good thing is that, if PS takes the part of the Southern dems, it means that it has also been crushed recently for passing Civil Rights, didn't it ?
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« Reply #58 on: August 15, 2009, 07:51:56 am »
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South Carolina

The UMP polls well along the coast in Charleston (minus inner city), its suburbs, Columbia suburbia and other wealthy areas both inland and on the coast. The Socialists poll well in the black-majority areas, Charleston and Columbia inner cities and in poorer rural areas between Columbia and Charleston/Hilton Head Island.

The Piedmont would have been an old Socialist area that would have moved to the MPF (and, to a lesser extent, FN) in recent years. Perhaps the best guide here is to see in which areas of the region the Democrats survive locally (and maybe look at 1996). The MPF would pretty much dominate elsewhere. However, the UMP does well in areas of the Piedmont which has developed high-tech industries and also in parts of Greenville.

Way back when, early Gaullism would have done well too.


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« Reply #59 on: August 15, 2009, 03:20:25 pm »
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Miam! GA will come soon...
And those fine NC and SC let me think KY will be interesting and surprising (maybe even TN).

One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (Wink), but MoDem ?
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« Reply #60 on: August 16, 2009, 09:20:31 am »
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One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (Wink), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...
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« Reply #61 on: August 16, 2009, 09:22:25 am »
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One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (Wink), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.
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« Reply #62 on: August 16, 2009, 09:29:07 am »
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One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (Wink), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.

There is little fun in turning this into a type of simulation using British parties instead.

Anyways, the MoDem is irrelevant and can go die.
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« Reply #63 on: August 16, 2009, 09:53:45 am »
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One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (Wink), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.

There is little fun in turning this into a type of simulation using British parties instead.

Anyways, the MoDem is irrelevant and can go die.
Sure !
OK, I'll stop with MoDem. That was just to say something, apart from "I REALLY enjoy reading this topic" each time Wink
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« Reply #64 on: August 16, 2009, 10:28:48 am »
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One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (Wink), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.

There is little fun in turning this into a type of simulation using British parties instead.

Nobody spoke about British parties.
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« Reply #65 on: August 16, 2009, 10:31:13 am »
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One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (Wink), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.

There is little fun in turning this into a type of simulation using British parties instead.

Nobody spoke about British parties.

Turning the MoDem into a LibDem lite party would effectively turn this into a British simulation (Labour, Tories, LibDems, conservative far-right). And that isn't the point of this simulation. Or if not that, into some boring centre-right vs. centre-left vs. centre vs. far-right simulation, and that's so awfully boring it's not fun.

Anyways, as I said, the MoDem isn't Godly and my exclusion of the MoDem won't alter many things.
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« Reply #66 on: August 16, 2009, 10:37:49 am »
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Anyways, as I said, the MoDem isn't Godly and my exclusion of the MoDem won't alter many things.

Of course, but you need to put it somewhere, as you do for even more insignificant parties as PRG.
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« Reply #67 on: August 16, 2009, 10:43:07 am »
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Anyways, as I said, the MoDem isn't Godly and my exclusion of the MoDem won't alter many things.

Of course, but you need to put it somewhere, as you do for even more insignificant parties as PRG.

I have decided to replace it with the UDF, partly to make it simple and also to make it more interesting for readers.

I don't know why this comes up as an issue this late. I've been following the same system since I first started and there has never been any outrage about that, so to say.
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« Reply #68 on: August 22, 2009, 06:54:22 pm »
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Georgia

Atlanta and suburbia

Atlanta city itself is of course an important Socialist stronghold, though the UMP would still poll well in affluent white neighborhoods within city limits (Buckhead). But yeah, the city is strongly Socialist.

The suburbia wouldn't be very homogeneous, but with a slight right-lean. The Socialists would still do well in black-majority suburbia, but the UMP would do well in kinda-affluent black areas in DeKalb County, actually. White and affluent, however, gives, on the whole, a strong UMP base. However, in places like Cobb County and other middle-class decently well-off suburbia, the PS would have made impressive gains in recent years in what would have been solidly right-wing land not so long ago. Very wealthy places, however, are relatively straightforward for voting patterns... and the exurbs (and the rural areas in the Metro area] are the same (mostly).

These type of rich suburbs are of course the base of the Southern UMP, and the MPF and FN poll quite badly here.

Northern Georgia and the Mountains

The north would generally be right-wing on the whole, due to strong support in rural areas, Unionist enclaves (on the assumption that the UMP carries on the traditions of OTL Republicanism there), old people, and recent white-collar/service bedroom communities for both Atlanta and Chattanooga, TN.

I'm not sure how socially conservative this area is, however. From my research, it seems pretty socially conservative so I would expect to see some high MPF results in this area but low FN results.

Eastern Georgia

The northern region (aka the 10th district save for the areas in the Blue Ridge Mountains), a rural region would be strongly UMP. In addition, places such as Columbia County (Augusta suburbia) also add to the strong UMP lean. In the region, only Clarke County (Athens) wouldn't be UMP. Athens, a liberal college town would lean PS with a strong Green (and MoDem Tongue) vote. Obviously, the Greenies would have won Athens in 2009. Once again, I'm not sure how socially conservative this area is, however... so that might determine the strength of the MPF. Again, the FN would be weak here.

The southern region (aka the 12th district) would be more volatile due to Augusta and Savannah being Socialist cities and the presence of black-majority counties. The white rural counties would be MPF areas, with a okayish UMP result. The FN polls well in crackerland surrounded by blackland and Effingham County, white flight country. The old textile areas in the centre of the region would also provide a good base for the FN, and the PS would have lost a lot of ground here.

Colonial Coast

Another region where the PS would have lost significant ground in recent years, mostly to the MPF. The MPF would dominate in rural white agricultural counties and the UMP would poll well in some of the more affluent coastal counties, Savannah's southern suburbs and military bases.

The Socialists could have a shot in some places if they nominate the right type of candidate.

Central Georgia

The black regions (as well as both Macon, Albany and Columbus) would obviously be Socialist strongholds, and white agricultural counties would lean MPF. The UMP's base would be in white (and affluent) suburban regions of cities like Macon, Albany or Columbus.

As in many regions of OTL Georgia, the Socialists could very well win if they nominate the right type of candidate. Lots of voters were yellow dog Democrats, so I assume they would be yellow dog 'populist' Socialists. More often than not, the UMP or MPF wins here. I would assume UMP generally, though, rather than MPF.

Northwestern Georgia (GA-3 and 11)

The region would lean UMP overall, but the PS would be an important factor. The UMP polls well in Atlantia exurbia and other wealthier areas, while the Socialists would poll well in black areas all the time and they would have residual appeal to white working-class voters in older textile industries and also in rural counties. However, a lot of that rural vote would have bled to the MPF and the more blue-collar working-class vote would have bled to the FN.

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« Reply #69 on: August 23, 2009, 11:54:36 am »
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Florida

Panhandle

The Panhandle would lean MPF overall, but the Socialists would do well in inner-city Tallahassee, the black majority areas here and there and older white working-class counties in the east Panhandle (forestry, tobacco. For more see the map of the 2002 Governor election). Affluent Tallahassee, Pensacola and Panama City suburbs as well as wealthy coastal communities are UMP strongholds.

First Coast and North Central Florida

Rural areas in the region are quite Deep South in this area, and would see MPF-UMP fights for the most part. Inner-city (black areas) Jacksonville and the harbour area would probably be Socialist, but the suburbs and the wealthy areas along the First Coast would be uber-UMP. Suburbs of Orlando, Gainesville, Daytona Beach etc are also UMP.

Gainesville is Socialist, partly due to the boboisation of the PS. The UMP would do better in 'small-towns'. Lower income whites (working-class) and blacks also vote Socialist.

East Coast (excluding Miami and surroundings) and Orlando

Inner-city Orlando would be a Socialist stronghold, so the city as a whole would probably lean Socialist. The very affluent suburbs of Orlando and areas along the coast, however, would be UMP but a Sarkozy-type UMP candidate would do rather poorly. The Socialists stand a growing chance in some coastal areas and suburbs due partly to the party's sociological evolution and young people in those areas. I also guess people working the large tourism industry would lean Socialist, might be wrong though.

Rural areas would be UMP strongholds, and I suppose national defense-dominated areas would too, more or less.

Florida Heartland and Rural Central Florida

UMP stronghold, due to rural areas. PS polls well in more urban areas and old phosphate mining areas in Polk County.

Miami, Coral Springs and surroundings

Coral Springs and black-majority areas would lean Socialist, though these areas are quite well-off and I could see the UMP polling quite well in those areas.

Affluent posh coastal areas filled with Jews and retirees would be quite solidly UMP, but the Greens (and PS, MoDem) would do well in Broward County. Districts such as the 22nd, 19th would be more and more competitive due to the sociological evolution of the PS vote. While these districts would still lean UMP, the Socialists could stand a chance in a few years and the Greens would have done very well in 2009. Sarkozy would have done quite badly, maybe. Or not. Depends on the Jews.

However, districts in Broward County would now lean PS after being quite right-wing in the past. Sarkozy's stuff wouldn't play well here. Greens, obviously, win in 2009.

Poorer black, Haitian and West Indian areas in Miami-Dade are Socialist strongholds.

Cuban areas lean FN (the American Pieds-Noirs) overall, and the FN's only chances at legislative seats are here. Sarkozy would probably have appealed to them in 2007 quite a bit, but I guess in runoffs they'd vote PS since they would likely have the same hate for the mainstream Gaullist right as Pieds-Noirs did in the past. Although I guess a Cuban UMP candidate could win. Non-Cuban Hispanics would lean UDF or UMP.

Coral Gables would lean UMP, save maybe more liberal parts which would lean Green or PS.

Florida Keys

Socialist or Green strongholds.

Nature Coast

UMP area, mostly due to retirees and rural areas (the MPF polls less and less well the further you get from the Deep South).

Tampa and surroundings

Tampa proper (and most of St. Petersburg) would lean Socialist as would, since recently, inner suburbs would too. Outer, richer suburbs, however would still lean UMP on the whole.

OVERALL, Florida would be a lean UMP state (polling higher than the Republicans do on a national 50-50 election) and the Socialists could win if they appeal to a diverse base. But their winning is possible.



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« Reply #70 on: August 23, 2009, 12:03:26 pm »
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Georgia

Atlanta and suburbia

Atlanta city itself is of course an important Socialist stronghold, though the UMP would still poll well in affluent white neighborhoods within city limits (Buckhead). But yeah, the city is strongly Socialist.

The suburbia wouldn't be very homogeneous, but with a slight right-lean. The Socialists would still do well in black-majority suburbia, but the UMP would do well in kinda-affluent black areas in DeKalb County, actually. White and affluent, however, gives, on the whole, a strong UMP base. However, in places like Cobb County and other middle-class decently well-off suburbia, the PS would have made impressive gains in recent years in what would have been solidly right-wing land not so long ago. Very wealthy places, however, are relatively straightforward for voting patterns... and the exurbs (and the rural areas in the Metro area] are the same (mostly).

These type of rich suburbs are of course the base of the Southern UMP, and the MPF and FN poll quite badly here.

Northern Georgia and the Mountains

The north would generally be right-wing on the whole, due to strong support in rural areas, Unionist enclaves (on the assumption that the UMP carries on the traditions of OTL Republicanism there), old people, and recent white-collar/service bedroom communities for both Atlanta and Chattanooga, TN.

I'm not sure how socially conservative this area is, however. From my research, it seems pretty socially conservative so I would expect to see some high MPF results in this area but low FN results.

Eastern Georgia

The northern region (aka the 10th district save for the areas in the Blue Ridge Mountains), a rural region would be strongly UMP. In addition, places such as Columbia County (Augusta suburbia) also add to the strong UMP lean. In the region, only Clarke County (Athens) wouldn't be UMP. Athens, a liberal college town would lean PS with a strong Green (and MoDem Tongue) vote. Obviously, the Greenies would have won Athens in 2009. Once again, I'm not sure how socially conservative this area is, however... so that might determine the strength of the MPF. Again, the FN would be weak here.

The southern region (aka the 12th district) would be more volatile due to Augusta and Savannah being Socialist cities and the presence of black-majority counties. The white rural counties would be MPF areas, with a okayish UMP result. The FN polls well in crackerland surrounded by blackland and Effingham County, white flight country. The old textile areas in the centre of the region would also provide a good base for the FN, and the PS would have lost a lot of ground here.

Colonial Coast

Another region where the PS would have lost significant ground in recent years, mostly to the MPF. The MPF would dominate in rural white agricultural counties and the UMP would poll well in some of the more affluent coastal counties, Savannah's southern suburbs and military bases.

The Socialists could have a shot in some places if they nominate the right type of candidate.

Central Georgia

The black regions (as well as both Macon, Albany and Columbus) would obviously be Socialist strongholds, and white agricultural counties would lean MPF. The UMP's base would be in white (and affluent) suburban regions of cities like Macon, Albany or Columbus.

As in many regions of OTL Georgia, the Socialists could very well win if they nominate the right type of candidate. Lots of voters were yellow dog Democrats, so I assume they would be yellow dog 'populist' Socialists. More often than not, the UMP or MPF wins here. I would assume UMP generally, though, rather than MPF.

Northwestern Georgia (GA-3 and 11)

The region would lean UMP overall, but the PS would be an important factor. The UMP polls well in Atlantia exurbia and other wealthier areas, while the Socialists would poll well in black areas all the time and they would have residual appeal to white working-class voters in older textile industries and also in rural counties. However, a lot of that rural vote would have bled to the MPF and the more blue-collar working-class vote would have bled to the FN.



Just a quick question, how would my home county, Newton, vote? We voted for Obama, and have man Democratic officials. Here's a Wikipedia page for it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_County,_Georgia

Thanks! Smiley
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« Reply #71 on: August 23, 2009, 12:06:59 pm »
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Just a quick question, how would my home county, Newton, vote? We voted for Obama, and have man Democratic officials. Here's a Wikipedia page for it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_County,_Georgia

Thanks! Smiley

Probably UMP. The UMP would have more of a suburban appeal than the Republicans did in 2008, since their platform is not OMG THE GAYZ and OMG BABYKILLERS.

But the PS wouldn't be a non-factor either.
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« Reply #72 on: August 23, 2009, 12:08:54 pm »
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Just a quick question, how would my home county, Newton, vote? We voted for Obama, and have man Democratic officials. Here's a Wikipedia page for it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_County,_Georgia

Thanks! Smiley

Probably UMP. The UMP would have more of a suburban appeal than the Republicans did in 2008, since their platform is not OMG THE GAYZ and OMG BABYKILLERS.

But the PS wouldn't be a non-factor either.

Thanks. Smiley
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« Reply #73 on: August 23, 2009, 12:09:41 pm »
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My pleasure Smiley Interest in this is always good.
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« Reply #74 on: August 23, 2009, 12:58:27 pm »
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Really amazing. Congratulations for all your work.
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