US with French parties

[Hashemite]

The Greens' map:



I'm generally happy with it, except maybe the west which is a bit tougher to do.

[Californian Tony]

As for Arizona, I'd have personally seen it voting for Sarkozy above 60% (this is the kind of State where PS should underperform democrats), but that seems fine anyways.

Too many Hispanics, natives and bobo types there. Brewer didn't even get 55% in 2010 and McCain won 58% against a semi-serious opponent. 55-56% to Sarkozy is being kind, actually.

Well, Brewer is even more insane than Sarkozy and McCain was particularly weak in this cycle. I think 55% could fit for Sarkozy in a tied election, but remember that he won by 53% nationwide, so 55% would become 52%.

[Hashemite]

As for Arizona, I'd have personally seen it voting for Sarkozy above 60% (this is the kind of State where PS should underperform democrats), but that seems fine anyways.

Too many Hispanics, natives and bobo types there. Brewer didn't even get 55% in 2010 and McCain won 58% against a semi-serious opponent. 55-56% to Sarkozy is being kind, actually.

Well, Brewer is even more insane than Sarkozy and McCain was particularly weak in this cycle. I think 55% could fit for Sarkozy in a tied election, but remember that he won by 53% nationwide, so 55% would become 52%.

I stand by what I said. There are too many Latinos, natives and bobos out there for the right to break 60% in a contested presidential election.

[big bad fab]

The Greens' map:



I'm generally happy with it, except maybe the west which is a bit tougher to do.

VA a bit stronger ? and even NC ?
Washington suburbs, Triangle,... of course, it's vs rural and coastal zones not really "greens"...
You're probably right in the end.

As for, CA, OR, WA, strong or even very strong !

[Hashemite]

Nevada

Las Vegas proper would likely be a PS stronghold, thanks in part to a large unionized work force (NV has one of the highest unionization rates) and also Hispanic/black areas in North Las Vegas. I don't know much about the various neighborhoods of sprawl, but I suspect affluentish suburbs like Spring Valley, Summerlin and parts of Henderson would vote rather solidly UMP. Boulder City votes, of course, very solidly UMP. Mushrooming not-too-affluent exurbia, of which there is, iirc, plenty of in Nevada are the interesting parts. I would think that they'd be a very strong FN area. I find them similar to the small lower middle-class artisans/petit commercants which are so strongly for the FN. Plus, they're largely whites living in a state with a growing Hispanic population. Places like Pahrump (an exurb) and Eureka (some old mining town which is now growing, it's in the middle of nowhere) would probably have a very strong FN vote.

Reno would vote PS solidly, and Carson City would lean UMP. I know all of 17 people live outside Washoe and Clark Counties, but the old mining areas (copper, silver etc) would have been solidly PS/PCF in the distant past but with those mines closing (or declining), there would be a solid FN protest vote and they'd generally be establishing as UMP areas especially in places which are transforming into mushrooming 'exurbs' or places with a strong military contingent. Mormons in Lincoln County vote UMP solidly.

Nevada would be a reliably UMP state in 2007, and Sarkozy would have won it by a bit more than the national average. But in 2002, it'd have voted Le Pen (in the first round, obviously) with something like 23-26% or so, which would make it one of the FN's best states with Florida and maybe Arizona. But that was before the housing bubble exploded, and given all that, the UMP would now be polling the plague in a lot of Nevada and would have lost badly in 2009 and 2010. In 2010, the FN would have taken one a very high vote (19-21% or so, maybe). 



1995 map:

[big bad fab]

NV over the average for Sarkozy in 2007, I tend to disagree. Difficult to see Royal win here, sure, but its crazy side would have done well there .


NY, CT and Maryland for Chirac over Jospin in 1995 and OK (and KY) for Jospin !
Wow, it's a daring map...
There was a smell of rebellion in Chirac's vote that could have switched these states I think, even if I'm not entirely affirmative.

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, I have difficulties to immagine Jospin winning OK, but of course it's your map.

[big bad fab]

It's always easy to put forward ideas but never do anything...
But I'm afraid to do really STUPID things... That's why I just put forward an interesting idea:

Tixier-Vignancour strength map in the US

Florida would be very strong for him. But, otherwise, which South would vote for Tixier ?
And would he have been able to grasp Ron Paul's fans ?
Probably more Southern and Rocky than FN's one.

And what about a Poujade strength map ?
MidEast and MidWest, Northern Rocky Mountains ?

[big bad fab]

Very interesting one. I'd agree that Sarkozy would have barely won the state in 2007, even though by a close margin (which would make NM a perfect swing state).

actually, it would be less Socialist than it is Democratic irl (at least since 1960) because of the political affiliation of the Spanish vote. Giscard, por ejemplo, would have won it in 1981 (though Mitterrand would presumably have won it rather easily in 1988) and Chirac would have won it in 1995.

Indeed, you're right. Though considering the State's trends and Sarkozy's lack of appeal there, I think he could have performed less well there than nationwide.

Re-read my last line(s). I can agree with you that he'd have performed less well there within certain demographics than is usual for the New Mexican Right, but at the same time I can point out demographics in NM where he'd have performed better than is usual. It's a really tricky thing, but, on the whole, I agree with you that, given the weight of Spanish Hispanics in the electorate (and the fact that Sarkozy would underperform there), the state would be trending to the left.

Did that make any sense? No. Sorry, I have like 600 other things in my head right now.

Rethinking about NM, in the past, the Alduy family would have been perfect in the NE and the NW of this State: what do you think Hash ?

[Senator Snowstalker]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[Username MechaRFK]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[ChairmanSanchez]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[Jackson]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[Simfan34]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[JulioMadrid]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[greenforest32]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[Kushahontas]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[Californian Tony]

How I long to see the West Coast results.

[Hashemite]

I will bow down to popular pressure and restart this a bit (dunno when exactly), but in the meantime here's a map showing a National Assembly with 577 seats.



If you want to do some maps based on it, that'd be great. Respect county boundaries as much as possible, but you can be looser on deviations (no more than 10%). No VRA-stuff necessary o/c

[Hashemite]

Alabama's 9 districts



1ere (Mobile): blue, dev -242 > solid UMP
2eme (Enterprise-Dothan): green, dev -186 > lean UMP, strong MPF
3eme (Selma-Tuscaloosa): purple, dev 865 > lean UMP/MPF, PS base
4eme (Montgomery): red, dev -588 > tossup PS/UMP
5eme (Birmingham Centre): gold, dev -290 > lean PS
6eme (Florence-Birmingham Nord): teal, dev -464 > lean MPF, strong UMP and PS
7eme (Alabaster-Birmingham Campagne): gray, dev -456 > solid UMP
8eme (Gadsen): cornflower blue, dev 843 > tossup MPF/UMP
9eme (Huntsville-Decatur): cyan, dev 516 > tossup UMP/PS

South Dakota



1ere (Sioux Falls): blue, dev -313 > lean UMP
2eme (Pierre-Aberdeen-Rapid City): green, dev 313 > solid UMP

Idaho



1ere (Boise): blue, dev -699 > lean UMP
2eme (Lewiston): green, dev 916 > lean UMP
3eme (Pocatello-Idaho Falls): purple, dev -216 > solid UMP

[Hatman]

Your SD map is almost the same as mine.

[Californian Tony]

Arizona. Really did my best, but it's hard to balance compactness and equality...



McCain +17.9
McCain +19.4
McCain +17.3
Obama +20
McCain +21.8
Obama +0.7
McCain +3.3
McCain +19.2
Obama +22.9
McCain +6
McCain +21.6
McCain +8.2

[Hashemite]

Arizona. Really did my best, but it's hard to balance compactness and equality...

I've kind of decided to go with equality rather than absolute compactness myself, which isn't really the French way but meh.

Anyways, I'm working on building a national 577 constituency map based on the individual states' districting. So get to work people!

Montana



1ere (Missoula-Butte): blue, dev 271
2eme (Helena-Great Falls-Billings): green, dev -272

Your SD map is almost the same as mine.

And that's a problem because...?