US with French parties

[big bad fab]

And what about DLR ?

It would have a role to play and not a marginal one, mutatis mutandis:
almost nationalist, protectionist, a bit "monroeist", some notes of "social-populism".

Villiers isn't enough to take the place of GOP's diverse right wing.

[big bad fab]

Fine.
Do you intend to give us an overall trend for each State ?

[big bad fab]

Fine.
Do you intend to give us an overall trend for each State ?

Ah, yes. That. Anyways, nice to see interest in this project.

I've understood that's not your aim, of course, but in states as Vermont or Idaho, I'm not a great specialist in local strongholds or fighting areas, so I wouldn't be able to discuss in details, hence an overall trend.

But in Ohio, PA, FA, CO or Missouri, I will grasp even the local details .

[big bad fab]

Vermont

A hard state to pin down in terms of French parties. It would probably have been a ARD stronghold during the Third Republic and later a CNI (or RGR) stronghold. The influx of liberals from New England and the CNI's move to the right would have shifted the state to the Socialists - though liberal progressive 'champagne' socialists and not working-class socialists. The PRG (if they bothered to run candidates) and, in particular the Greens do very well, and the Greens would probably have won the state in 2009. The UMP is limited to very wealthy communities and maybe Essex County. The UDF-CDS would have done well in the Catholic areas in the past, but would be a non-factor now obviously.

Overall: One of Royal's best states in the runoff. Voynet's best state in the first round (5-6% vs. 1% nationwide) and Mamere would have done very well (10-13%). Perhaps Sarkozy's worst state, and Royal mightve broken 40% here in the first round.

Cohn-Bendit (let's say he'd have 2 nationalities, Canadian -but from where ?- and American) would be cherished in Vermont.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts, due to its very high percentage of Catholics, would have been a UDF stronghold. The UDF would have been strong quasi-universally, taking Irish voters in Boston, rural voters, and working-class voters. Nowadays, the UDF's strength is much reduced, maybe 25-30% for Bayrou in 2007. The UMP wins in affluent Boston suburbia and affluent coastal communities in Cape Cod and so forth. The Socialists would have gained a lot of ground in Catholic working class territory, and even 'champagne' type socialism. Greenies also do well in liberal yuppie land, wherever that may be.

Overall: Bayrou's voters in the first round vote Socialist in the runoff by a large margin, giving Royal a very big margin here in the runoff.

Don't you think on the contrary that MoDem would do better than the UDF, preventing the PS to rise in MA ? And would be on par with UMP in Boston suburbs (but not in Cape Cod and the coast, though).

[big bad fab]

Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Yeah !
Great Plains and Rocky Mountains also ! And OH, IN, MI, PA...

[big bad fab]

A very, very fine post on NY !
I really look forward to reading PA, OH, IN, MI, etc, almost everything in fact (except maybe the West coast) !

Just 2 questions:

- don't you think that in Harlem and some parts of Bronx, the PCF would have some good results ?
I mean, the PCF of feudalties, of clans, of "families", as in Bouches-du-Rhône or in Valenciennois.

- in rural upstate, don't you think the MPF would have up to 10-12%, wouldn't be only a "complete joke" ?
Those agricultural areas, very traditional but quite economically modern (IIRC), might behave along the inner Vendee line.

[big bad fab]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The agricultural areas upstate are either quite Catholic (remember, the MPF is an evangelical Protestant party here) or Yankee Republicans. Doesn't strike me as socially conservative and evangelical conservatism doesn't seem to play well.

Oops, sorry.
So, forget this second question.

[big bad fab]

Sure, difficult to put some UDF or MoDem in NJ and DE.

What is fine in your topic is that, apart from the West Coast, it is finer and finer (as New England is too "European" in a sense...).

[big bad fab]

YEAH ! Just YEAH !

[big bad fab]

Are you planning to do some county maps ? It would be really great.

Great, of course... But maybe our Hash need to... live, just live, apart from posting in here ?!?

Do you realize the HUGE amount of work and time to make those maps (and that's not just a Dem/GOP one where, more or else, when you've made one, youve made the other one) ?

Try to be happy with what we already have, which is very, very fine.

[big bad fab]

Could I ask you why you are getting so harsh ?

Because I'm cranky and because you're taking this as if it was something real.

I frankly don't really care if you disagree with my assessment, since this is all supposed to be a fun project for me and readers. And I already warned about a number of things like this in my OP

WV is Socialist and it will remain such until I die.

This simple sentence in the end made me laugh !! Fine after a hard day...

Anyway, couldn't we compare WV with a mix of Allier and Puy-de-Dôme ?
Or Pas-de-Calais, with rural areas heavily with the traditional right, but an overall situation heavily to the left because of old industrial and mining areas.

Maybe even a bit of FN in WV: I mean, some areas with, on the right, MPF first, FN second, UMP third !

Oh, it makes me think that, even better than the overall map (er, sorry for having pushed for it, and not having thought about this first),
a national map for each of the 7 big parties, not at all with real results or percentages, but just a distribution between "strongholds", "solid areas", "so so", weak areas", "zero zones", would be very fine.
In the end, of course, and if you have time

[big bad fab]

A great one !  Thanks.

Don't you think Bayrou and MoDem could have made some inroads in 2007 in the northern "Washingtonian" VA ?
A local base for Marielle de Sarnez, for example ?

Sure, with 2009, come the Greens, but just before that.

[big bad fab]

Don't you think Bayrou and MoDem could have made some inroads in 2007 in the northern "Washingtonian" VA ?
A local base for Marielle de Sarnez, for example ?

Too few Catholics there, though NOVA would have been Bayrou's 'best' region, so to say.

Oh, that's just because I see MoDem as less strictly Catholic than UDF. And Sarnez, sociologically would be fine in Alexandria...

And what about a comparison between WV and Puy-de-Dôme/Allier or Pas-de-Calais ?

[big bad fab]

Yes, it's back !
And with a very fine South to come !

[big bad fab]

Miam! GA will come soon...
And those fine NC and SC let me think KY will be interesting and surprising (maybe even TN).

One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (), but MoDem ?

[big bad fab]

One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.

There is little fun in turning this into a type of simulation using British parties instead.

Anyways, the MoDem is irrelevant and can go die.

Sure !
OK, I'll stop with MoDem. That was just to say something, apart from "I REALLY enjoy reading this topic" each time

[big bad fab]

I need to read them more carefully, as these two are fine and complex.

I LOVE the idea of Cubans as a base for FN vote !

In old colonial Georgia, why not Geroges Frêche as a good candidate for the PS ?

Wouldn't Tampa vote UMP overall, but also "in detail", even in the centre ? I thought the city was really moderate GOP. But I may be wrong.

[big bad fab]

I wonder where the PS's strength is. It appears rather weak.

Wait for some "continental" states, I think.
Appalachia, MidWest, Upper MidWest, inner South, etc are still to come.
And remember it's 2007.

[big bad fab]

Bump. Just bump. No demand.

[big bad fab]

Chouette !
It's back !

[big bad fab]

Just wait for Midwest and South West, we may have some surprises...
And remember this is 2007, not the end of 2009, with this dwindling UMP...

[big bad fab]

Nice, it's back !

YES !

And with a fine Arkansas, a state Sarkozy may have hoped to win in 2007, but lost closely and where he backfires badly now...
I would see it as a rural version of the industrial Moselle.

And TN, a very narrow Sarkozy win in 2007...

[big bad fab]

Oh, Kentucky is already a very fine reading. Really.

I'm not so sure the margin would have been narrow for the PS, even in 2007.
And well, wouldn't influence area of Cincinnati be Socialist also, but a DSK-type ?

(yeah, maybe it's because I unconsciously would have wished that all the wings of the PS be represented in only one state )

And I go back to TN: wouldn't it be better to put it in lighter blue on the map ?
(in fact, it's disturbing because TN is UMP only because there is 2 rounds, as, in the first round, the UMP wouldn't have been very high; but that's the game)

[big bad fab]

See, Xahar, it begins to be really fun: OH for Royal, while PA for Sarkozy !

A really great one, Hash, and not many things to add.

Maybe it's in Ohio rather than in KY that I may be able to find all the wings of the PS:
- Emmanuelli and Hamon in the Rust Belt and Dayton
- Aubry in Cincinnati
- Hollande in the Corn Belt ()
- DSK and Royal in Columbus.

Indiana will be fine to read !

[big bad fab]

I'm really FOND of it.
Upper Peninsula was exquisite to read !

Illinois will be better than with US parties. Minnesota, Wisconsin (ah !) and Missouri will be very fine too, I'm sure...

You were right to begin with the NE, because the rest is far more interesting than this too European New England (and yet, it was already very interesting to read !).