US with French parties (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 09:33:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  International What-ifs (Moderator: Dereich)
  US with French parties (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: US with French parties  (Read 53325 times)
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« on: August 23, 2009, 12:03:26 PM »

Georgia

Atlanta and suburbia

Atlanta city itself is of course an important Socialist stronghold, though the UMP would still poll well in affluent white neighborhoods within city limits (Buckhead). But yeah, the city is strongly Socialist.

The suburbia wouldn't be very homogeneous, but with a slight right-lean. The Socialists would still do well in black-majority suburbia, but the UMP would do well in kinda-affluent black areas in DeKalb County, actually. White and affluent, however, gives, on the whole, a strong UMP base. However, in places like Cobb County and other middle-class decently well-off suburbia, the PS would have made impressive gains in recent years in what would have been solidly right-wing land not so long ago. Very wealthy places, however, are relatively straightforward for voting patterns... and the exurbs (and the rural areas in the Metro area] are the same (mostly).

These type of rich suburbs are of course the base of the Southern UMP, and the MPF and FN poll quite badly here.

Northern Georgia and the Mountains

The north would generally be right-wing on the whole, due to strong support in rural areas, Unionist enclaves (on the assumption that the UMP carries on the traditions of OTL Republicanism there), old people, and recent white-collar/service bedroom communities for both Atlanta and Chattanooga, TN.

I'm not sure how socially conservative this area is, however. From my research, it seems pretty socially conservative so I would expect to see some high MPF results in this area but low FN results.

Eastern Georgia

The northern region (aka the 10th district save for the areas in the Blue Ridge Mountains), a rural region would be strongly UMP. In addition, places such as Columbia County (Augusta suburbia) also add to the strong UMP lean. In the region, only Clarke County (Athens) wouldn't be UMP. Athens, a liberal college town would lean PS with a strong Green (and MoDem Tongue) vote. Obviously, the Greenies would have won Athens in 2009. Once again, I'm not sure how socially conservative this area is, however... so that might determine the strength of the MPF. Again, the FN would be weak here.

The southern region (aka the 12th district) would be more volatile due to Augusta and Savannah being Socialist cities and the presence of black-majority counties. The white rural counties would be MPF areas, with a okayish UMP result. The FN polls well in crackerland surrounded by blackland and Effingham County, white flight country. The old textile areas in the centre of the region would also provide a good base for the FN, and the PS would have lost a lot of ground here.

Colonial Coast

Another region where the PS would have lost significant ground in recent years, mostly to the MPF. The MPF would dominate in rural white agricultural counties and the UMP would poll well in some of the more affluent coastal counties, Savannah's southern suburbs and military bases.

The Socialists could have a shot in some places if they nominate the right type of candidate.

Central Georgia

The black regions (as well as both Macon, Albany and Columbus) would obviously be Socialist strongholds, and white agricultural counties would lean MPF. The UMP's base would be in white (and affluent) suburban regions of cities like Macon, Albany or Columbus.

As in many regions of OTL Georgia, the Socialists could very well win if they nominate the right type of candidate. Lots of voters were yellow dog Democrats, so I assume they would be yellow dog 'populist' Socialists. More often than not, the UMP or MPF wins here. I would assume UMP generally, though, rather than MPF.

Northwestern Georgia (GA-3 and 11)

The region would lean UMP overall, but the PS would be an important factor. The UMP polls well in Atlantia exurbia and other wealthier areas, while the Socialists would poll well in black areas all the time and they would have residual appeal to white working-class voters in older textile industries and also in rural counties. However, a lot of that rural vote would have bled to the MPF and the more blue-collar working-class vote would have bled to the FN.



Just a quick question, how would my home county, Newton, vote? We voted for Obama, and have man Democratic officials. Here's a Wikipedia page for it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_County,_Georgia

Thanks! Smiley
Logged
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2009, 12:08:54 PM »

Just a quick question, how would my home county, Newton, vote? We voted for Obama, and have man Democratic officials. Here's a Wikipedia page for it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_County,_Georgia

Thanks! Smiley

Probably UMP. The UMP would have more of a suburban appeal than the Republicans did in 2008, since their platform is not OMG THE GAYZ and OMG BABYKILLERS.

But the PS wouldn't be a non-factor either.

Thanks. Smiley
Logged
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2010, 09:33:52 PM »

This is really quite fantastic, Hashemite! Smiley
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 11 queries.