Migrating population is the key to the trend analysis
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Migrating population is the key to the trend analysis
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Author Topic: Migrating population is the key to the trend analysis  (Read 11485 times)
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
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« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2004, 12:23:12 AM »
« edited: June 23, 2004, 12:23:34 AM by Gov. NickG »


In the south there are voters who vote Rep while their parents have voted Dem. It is not easy to find a voter who switched parties, though every one of us knows someone who did it

It is safe to assert that the main reason for the big changes in states like NH, NJ, CT, SD, MT, WY and TX is the emigration/immigration process that took place during the last 20 years.


Why is this so safe to assert?  Who the hell has immigrated to SD in the past 20 years?  Or even WY?  And most of the immigrants to TX are pretty liberal.

I'm sorry...you have no idea what you are talking about.  The people who live in South Dakota today are the SAME PEOPLE that lived there 20 years ago (or their children).

Rural voters are now much more Republican is presidential elections than they were 20 years.  The has to do with both with the issues changing and the parties changing.  But it is NOT because of immigration or emmigration.

Just to give you an example of this, look at the South Dakota exit poll from 2000, located on the web here:

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/sd_epollgridPres.html

Overall, Bush won among exit poll respondents, 61-37.  The actual election result was Bush 60-38, or about +23 GOP over the national average.

However, when these SAME PEOPLE were asked who they voted for in 1996, they favored Clinton over Dole, 43-38, with Perot at 8%....about +5 GOP over the national average.  

So the EXACT SAME PEOPLE became 18% more Republican over the course of four years.  Now, I think these results are exagerrated by people's fondness for Clinton in hindsight, but it clearly shows that the people of South Dakota became have become more Republican...it is not that SD has become more Republican because it now has different people.

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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2004, 12:54:08 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2004, 12:54:20 AM by Lt. Gov. Ford »



Have you noticed that the governors of MA, CT, NY, and MD  are all REPs.
In MA Bush got 32%. In NYC - 15% despite the GOP mayor.



There are two things that make Florida different.

1) In Florida,, unlike those other states, the governor in question is not a moderate Yankee but a true bona-fide conservative.

2) In Florida, unlike those other states, the Governor is the President's brother.

Yeah, I think 2002 Bush-McBride gives us a rough idea of how Florida voters feel about the President.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2004, 12:59:51 AM »



Have you noticed that the governors of MA, CT, NY, and MD  are all REPs.
In MA Bush got 32%. In NYC - 15% despite the GOP mayor.



There are two things that make Florida different.

1) In Florida,, unlike those other states, the governor in question is not a moderate Yankee but a true bona-fide conservative.

2) In Florida, unlike those other states, the Governor is the President's brother.

Yeah, I think 2002 Bush-McBride gives us a rough idea of how Florida voters feel about the President.

3) Northern Florida/Central Florida still has the power to outvote Miami/Dade. In Miami/Dade Bushs' numbers have actually gone up from 39% in 1998 to 43% in 2002. Definately good news. Jeb had strong Jewish support last time around.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2004, 01:23:51 AM »

Usually if an entire state government is controlled by a single party (alla Florida) it is safe to assume that they will vote that way in a national election.  There are certainly exceptions though.
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Lunar
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« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2004, 01:33:00 AM »

Nelson and Graham are still hanging around.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #30 on: June 23, 2004, 01:36:43 AM »

Nelson and Graham are still hanging around.

True
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StatesRights
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« Reply #31 on: June 23, 2004, 01:50:44 AM »

Nelson and Graham are still hanging around.

Soon to be gone.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #32 on: June 23, 2004, 03:38:02 AM »

Bush is from Maine, but he owns a residence in TX for tax purposes.  Cheney is from WY although he also owned a residence in TX for tax pusposes until he was obligated to sell it in order to qualify to run as Bush's VP.
The Bush's own a summer home in Maine.  The Bush's moved to Texas in the first half of the previous century, and currently live in Houston.  Bush was elected to Congress from Houston almost 40 years ago.

Cheney was elected from Congress from Wyoming, but in 2000 was living in Dallas where Halliburton was headquartered at the time.

Neither Wyoming or Texas have an income tax.
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