FIRST!

[nhmagic]

Brewer goes down if she is the nominee, but I'm worried about all of the candidates on our side that are running.  None of them seem all that conservative - a conservative would win.  Goddard isn't a "for sure" nominee yet, and I think Phil Gordon will make a run which would end up creating a nasty and trashy primary between the two (Gordon is scum, and his scum-buddy republican Andrew Thomas is running for AG again).

We are going to pick up a net of 6 seats.  We lose NV, AZ, RI (Chafee picks up), FL (McCollum is a perennially weak candidate), CT (Rells retiring, however, one of the senate candidates could jump in should they lose the primary), HI - but we gain a lot more than we lose: WY, CO, KS, OK, IA (Culver is incredibly weak), WI (Doyle is incredibly weak), MI, TN, OH (Strickland is pretty weak), PA, MD (if Ehrlich runs), MA (you guys are crazy if you think Patrick will win)

We keep (of the tossups currently in Rep hands): VT (observers believe Lt. Gov Dubie is strong), MN, CA (unless Feinstein runs)