2012 Democratic Primaries

[Lahbas]

Barack Obama's approval rating are steadily going up, but are still in the lower 40's. From an unemployment high of 16% in 2010, it has since gone down to 11%. However, the recapture of Congress by the Republican Party has stifled most of what remained in his program. Challengers, though prominent, have been few. The only thing of major note is that Biden has declined to be reelected a second term as Vice-President, perferring to retire.

[JerryBrown2010]

Hillary Clinton the one who won the popular vote in 2008.

[Jayhawker]

Assuming the GOP had a nominee and the Democrats didn't, by the time the process rolled to Indiana, I would vote for Hillary Clinton. She's one of the few Democrats I could see myself voting for in the GE.

[pogo stick]

Hillary Clinton

[Lahbas]

Neck and Neck between Obama and Clinton, while Warner is not far behind. Kucinich is where he always is.

[Mr.Phips]

Where are Republicans going to pick up the seats to get control of Congress? especially in the Senate where they would have to pick off a bunch of deep blue states. 

[Lahbas]

Where are Republicans going to pick up the seats to get control of Congress? especially in the Senate where they would have to pick off a bunch of deep blue states. 

The recession is bad enough to allow the Republicans to make large gains similar to that of the Democrat's gains in 2006. However, I agree that it would not give them the Senate. At the same time, it would be a rather narrow Democratic Majority, possibly 53-47. The House would be the reverse of today.

Also, Warner, Clinton, and Obama are practically tied.

[N.i.K.]

Warner. he's the moderate god.

[Tender Branson]

Obama

[Mr.Phips]

Where are Republicans going to pick up the seats to get control of Congress? especially in the Senate where they would have to pick off a bunch of deep blue states. 

The recession is bad enough to allow the Republicans to make large gains similar to that of the Democrat's gains in 2006. However, I agree that it would not give them the Senate. At the same time, it would be a rather narrow Democratic Majority, possibly 53-47. The House would be the reverse of today.

Also, Warner, Clinton, and Obama are practically tied.

Democrats only gained 30 seats in 2006.  Republicans would need to gain 80 seats to get to where Democrats are now.  To do that they would have to pick up seats in inner cities and other safe Democratic districts. 

[King]

Republicans gotta be kidding if they think the recession getting worse will allow them to make gains in 2010.

The Great Depression went far into FDR's tenure with little to no improvement and the Democrats managed to survive because they still were able to keep the blame on the GOP.  This recession will still be seen as the effects of the Bush recession even if it's under Obama.

Also, when it comes to Congress, the incumbents--even during bad times and especially in the House--are almost always still favored because Americans have a tendency to believe that "it's the other Congressmen who are screwing up and not mine."

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I'd probably vote for Obama if he was actually in any kind of real danger. He won't be though, so I might vote for Gravel or something.

[Senator Ben]

Mark Warner.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Where are Republicans going to pick up the seats to get control of Congress? especially in the Senate where they would have to pick off a bunch of deep blue states. 

The recession is bad enough to allow the Republicans to make large gains similar to that of the Democrat's gains in 2006. However, I agree that it would not give them the Senate. At the same time, it would be a rather narrow Democratic Majority, possibly 53-47. The House would be the reverse of today.

Also, Warner, Clinton, and Obama are practically tied.

Democrats only gained 30 seats in 2006.  Republicans would need to gain 80 seats to get to where Democrats are now.  To do that they would have to pick up seats in inner cities and other safe Democratic districts. 

2006 was the exact reverse of 2004. And 2008 made some improvements. So it's possible over two cycles.

[Communists For McCain]

Republicans gotta be kidding if they think the recession getting worse will allow them to make gains in 2010.

The Great Depression went far into FDR's tenure with little to no improvement and the Democrats managed to survive because they still were able to keep the blame on the GOP.  This recession will still be seen as the effects of the Bush recession even if it's under Obama.

Also, when it comes to Congress, the incumbents--even during bad times and especially in the House--are almost always still favored because Americans have a tendency to believe that "it's the other Congressmen who are screwing up and not mine."

I agree.

But for the purposes of this scenario, I probably will have to go with this:

Warner. he's the moderate god.

[MasterJedi]

If a Democrat had to be elected I'd choose Warner.

[Mr.Phips]

Where are Republicans going to pick up the seats to get control of Congress? especially in the Senate where they would have to pick off a bunch of deep blue states. 

The recession is bad enough to allow the Republicans to make large gains similar to that of the Democrat's gains in 2006. However, I agree that it would not give them the Senate. At the same time, it would be a rather narrow Democratic Majority, possibly 53-47. The House would be the reverse of today.

Also, Warner, Clinton, and Obama are practically tied.

Democrats only gained 30 seats in 2006.  Republicans would need to gain 80 seats to get to where Democrats are now.  To do that they would have to pick up seats in inner cities and other safe Democratic districts. 

2006 was the exact reverse of 2004. And 2008 made some improvements. So it's possible over two cycles.

In 2004, the Republican House majority was as large as it can possibly get.  Democrats have far more safe Democratic seats than Republicans do. 

[President Mitt]

Hillary Clinton the one who won the popular vote in 2008.

Clinton: 18,045,829
Obama: 18,107,587

[Communists For McCain]

Hillary Clinton the one who won the popular vote in 2008.

Clinton: 18,045,829
Obama: 18,107,587

OWNED!!!!!!

[Jayhawker]

Hillary Clinton the one who won the popular vote in 2008.

Clinton: 18,045,829
Obama: 18,107,587

(Going off of this sites numbers)

Barack Obama:17,628,560
Hillary Clinton: 18,055,516

It's complicated though. It all depends on what you figure in. Personally, I don't count caucus states, as they are more inaccurate.

[Communists For McCain]

Hillary Clinton the one who won the popular vote in 2008.

Clinton: 18,045,829
Obama: 18,107,587

Incorrect...
(Going off of this sites numbers)

Barack Obama:17,628,560
Hillary Clinton: 18,055,516

Now you got owned!!!!!!!!

[realisticidealist]

Look, the argument of who won the popular vote is irrelevant, and the exact answer can never truly be known. Primaries aren't about votes, they are about delegates. However, if you really care about who won the vote, you must include caucuses, too.

Obama:
17,628,560 Primary
383,317+ Caucus
18,011,877+ Total

Clinton
18,055,516 Primary
179,604+ Caucus
18,235,120+ Total

Those numbers obviously do not include exact numbers for many caucus states that Obama won. Estimates of those states put Obama ahead.

But seriously, it doesn't matter, just like it doesn't matter in the general election.

[Ebowed]

I will be supporting the President for re-nomination in 2012, of course.

[Alaska Thunderfvck]

Warner probably. Unless Obama turns things around within the next 3 years or so.

[realisticidealist]

Unless Obama completely tanks, I would vote for him. If he did fail, I would vote for Warner.