from ford to carter

[WalterMitty]

how many counties went from ford in 76 to carter in 80.

i think there were two in vermont.  if i recall correctly, vt was the only state that 'swung' to carter in 1980.  of course vt was starting on its journey into the abyss in those days.

[Eraserhead]

Carter did not win Vermont in 1980.

[WalterMitty]

Carter did not win Vermont in 1980.

yes, but according the atlasians definition of 'swing'...it swung to him.

in other words his percentage of the two party vote increased in 1980 from 1976.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Carter did not win Vermont in 1980.

Correct however, Vermont was more competitive thanks to John Anderson running well in a few New England states like Maine and Vermont.

At a first glance.

Maine: Cumberland
Vermont: Chittenden
New York: Niagara, Monroe

[WalterMitty]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

[Adlai Stevenson]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

There may have been a few Northern voters who were perhaps ancestrally Republican and wanted to vote for Ford in 1976 over Carter due to regionalism.  In 1980, Carter was a de-
regionalised candidate (demonstrated by his loss of every Southern state except Georgia) yet he may have won a few more Northern liberals because Reagan was a Western conservative Republican.  Of course, my argument falls flat if you consider the candidancy of John Anderson; remove him, however, and this is what could have happened.

[memphis]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

I feel the same way about Bush in '04.

[gorkay]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

I doubt anyone said that, but there may well have been some who said, "Carter has his faults, but I damn sure prefer him to that nut Reagan."

[WalterMitty]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

I doubt anyone said that, but there may well have been some who said, "Carter has his faults, but I damn sure prefer him to that nut Reagan."

in that case they should have voted anderson.

[Hash]

Vermont did in fact swing to Carter in 1976. It was a 7.35% swing from R to D, even though both parties lost ground (Reagan lost 9.97% compared to Ford, while Carter lost only 4.73%, thus the swing from R to D).

[Eraserhead]

Carter did not win Vermont in 1980.

yes, but according the atlasians definition of 'swing'...it swung to him.

in other words his percentage of the two party vote increased in 1980 from 1976.

Alright. I got you. I guess I should come to this board more often to get the language down.

[gorkay]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

I doubt anyone said that, but there may well have been some who said, "Carter has his faults, but I damn sure prefer him to that nut Reagan."

in that case they should have voted anderson.

There were good reasons for not voting for Anderson as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Four of interest; Marquette, Washtenaw, Monroe, Niagara.

[Nym90]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

Well, Reagan was a lot more conservative than Ford, so if someone votes strictly on ideology, it makes sense.

In Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast. I'm sure a lot of moderate Rockefeller Republicans swung from Ford to Anderson. Some may well have gone from Ford to Carter since Carter was the only realistic chance to beat Reagan, and Reagan's conservative views turned them off.

Four of interest; Marquette, Washtenaw, Monroe, Niagara.

Washtenaw is easy to explain, since Ford was a U of Michigan alumnus. His Presidential library is there, and the school of Public Policy is named for him. Even despite its hard left swing in the last 20 years, Washtenaw always did and still does hold Ford in high esteem as its only alumnus to become President.

Marquette is a little bit more difficult to explain; the home state factor would be the easy answer, but even taking that into account, it was the only Michigan county outside Washtenaw to swing. My understanding of my home county is that while it is reasonably socially conservative it is not big on the "in your face" social conservatism of the Religious Right (lots of Lutherans up here, who while socially conservative on a personal level, tend to be pretty private about it, and don't like it infiltrating politics). So many of them may have been turned off by Carter's strong religiosity in 1976 and then by Reagan's strident social conservatism in 1980.

Plus it's a pretty heavy union area in general, as well as a University town, and both of those tended to show the least overall swing from Carter to Reagan. That combined with the home state factor in 1976 could've done the trick.

[Ebowed]

few more:

Grand Isle, VT; Grenada, MS; Franklin, MS; Marion, MS; Yazoo, MS

[Nym90]

The Mississippi counties flipping from Ford to Carter are really odd. I would think the South would've preferred Reagan to Ford, and also would've liked Carter a lot better in 1976 than in 1980.

It's actually quite surprising how well Ford did in MS in 1976. I'm assuming black turnout must've been horrid, and perhaps improved a bit by 1980? That could explain some of the flips.

Also, Reagan kicked off his campaign in MS if I recall, with a pretty explicit call for states' rights. 12 years after George Wallace's Presidential run, perhaps such words inspired blacks to turn out who had previously stayed home.

[Ebowed]

Yazoo is a majority-black county which narrowly voted for Bush twice and then for Obama (his percentage of the vote, 53%, is also the black population of the county).

Dunno about the others - all of them voted for McCain.  Presumably Ford didn't carry them by particularly substantial margins in 1976, though, and MS as a whole only swung to Reagan by a couple of points.

[Badger]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

I doubt anyone said that, but there may well have been some who said, "Carter has his faults, but I damn sure prefer him to that nut Reagan."

in that case they should have voted anderson.

Except it was clear near the end Anderson was going down in flames, causing a lot of such voters to hold their noses and cast ballots for Carter.

[rbt48]

Vermont did in fact swing to Carter in 1976. It was a 7.35% swing from R to D, even though both parties lost ground (Reagan lost 9.97% compared to Ford, while Carter lost only 4.73%, thus the swing from R to D).

Vermont:  http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/Vermont_pv.pdf
Mississippi:  http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/Mississippi_pv.pdf

Regarding those Mississippi counties, the Voting Rights Act was a much greater factor by 1980 than it was in 1976.  Regarding the upstate New York counties, the state has a long history of favoring incumbent Presidents.

[Derek]

Hmm, was Vermont just a Ford type New England Republican state that drifted as they switched to democrats throughout the northeast?

[Liberalrocks]

i dont understand flipping from ford to carter.   i know anderson was a factor..but i still dont get it.

who in their right mind said, 'you know, i wasnt sure about this carter fellow in 76, but he has done a helluva job and proved me wrong!'

Well, Reagan was a lot more conservative than Ford, so if someone votes strictly on ideology, it makes sense.

In Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast. I'm sure a lot of moderate Rockefeller Republicans swung from Ford to Anderson. Some may well have gone from Ford to Carter since Carter was the only realistic chance to beat Reagan, and Reagan's conservative views turned them off.

Four of interest; Marquette, Washtenaw, Monroe, Niagara.

Washtenaw is easy to explain, since Ford was a U of Michigan alumnus. His Presidential library is there, and the school of Public Policy is named for him. Even despite its hard left swing in the last 20 years, Washtenaw always did and still does hold Ford in high esteem as its only alumnus to become President.

Marquette is a little bit more difficult to explain; the home state factor would be the easy answer, but even taking that into account, it was the only Michigan county outside Washtenaw to swing. My understanding of my home county is that while it is reasonably socially conservative it is not big on the "in your face" social conservatism of the Religious Right (lots of Lutherans up here, who while socially conservative on a personal level, tend to be pretty private about it, and don't like it infiltrating politics). So many of them may have been turned off by Carter's strong religiosity in 1976 and then by Reagan's strident social conservatism in 1980.

Plus it's a pretty heavy union area in general, as well as a University town, and both of those tended to show the least overall swing from Carter to Reagan. That combined with the home state factor in 1976 could've done the trick.

I  would not have voted for Reagan ever!! but would have for  Ford for the reasons listed above. I would have had to decided if I was going to throw my vote away on Anderson or hold my nose for Carter