What would happen if the GOP goes Libertarian?
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  What would happen if the GOP goes Libertarian?
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Author Topic: What would happen if the GOP goes Libertarian?  (Read 15762 times)
President Mitt
Giovanni
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« on: July 27, 2009, 08:33:14 PM »

Lets say, the the Libertarians win the Power Struggle over Religous Conservatives in the Republican Party. How would a typical Electoral Map look, and how would the Democrats respond? Would the Evangelicals move in to take over the Democratic Party?
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Frodo
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2009, 08:55:35 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2009, 08:57:25 PM by Fading Frodo »

Then the Democratic Party becomes the only real game in town, with the GOP no longer a viable major political party as it follows in the Federalist Party's footsteps.  As for its religious and social conservative foot-soldiers -they either stay home or join the Constitution Party.   
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2009, 09:19:29 PM »

Then the Democratic Party becomes the only real game in town, with the GOP no longer a viable major political party as it follows in the Federalist Party's footsteps.  As for its religious and social conservative foot-soldiers -they either stay home or join the Constitution Party.   

Okay, keep dreaming.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2009, 09:29:55 PM »

Not going to happen. We need the Republican party to keep the Democrats in check.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2009, 11:24:52 PM »

The Republicans would split into two factions:

1. Christian Democrats: consisting of the Christian Right and socially conservative Blue Dog Democrats.  Essentially a rebirth of the Dixiecrats without the overt racism.  Candidates like Huckabee and Palin speak strongly to this party.  Dominant in the white South, Appalachia, and the Mormon Triangle.

2. Liberal Republicans:  Essentially moderate libertarians this party's leaders are Snowe and Collins but their strongholds extend beyond the Northeast to the Mountain West.  This party takes in the fiscally conservative Blue Dogs and social liberals. 

The New Democrats, having been stripped of the Blue Dogs, would then move significantly to the left.  The remaining alliance would consist of minorities, unions, and the far left (greenish, hippie types) and might even be considered a socialist party.  This party would likely fair well in college towns and the rust belt manufacturing areas.  Al Gore is the natural leader.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2009, 01:01:27 AM »

Nothing much, actually.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2009, 04:52:42 PM »

Then the Democratic Party becomes the only real game in town, with the GOP no longer a viable major political party as it follows in the Federalist Party's footsteps.  As for its religious and social conservative foot-soldiers -they either stay home or join the Constitution Party.   

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

100% agreed. I would flock back to the democrats, well, more of a dixiecrat.

*Libertarians party dieso ut as they all flee to the GOP
* Religious right and Southerners were already itching to go back to their ocnservative democrat roots. So most likely either become Far-right democrats or third party.
* GOP becomes a third party.
* Constitution party  becomes a  majority party, as the Liberlas keep scaring off the conservative democrats and the  conservative ex-GOPhers. Then it's going to be a Democrat v. Constitution Party battle!

Smiley *Dreams more*

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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2009, 05:10:52 PM »

Then the Democratic Party becomes the only real game in town, with the GOP no longer a viable major political party as it follows in the Federalist Party's footsteps.  As for its religious and social conservative foot-soldiers -they either stay home or join the Constitution Party.   

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

100% agreed. I would flock back to the democrats, well, more of a dixiecrat.

*Libertarians party dieso ut as they all flee to the GOP
* Religious right and Southerners were already itching to go back to their ocnservative democrat roots. So most likely either become Far-right democrats or third party.
* GOP becomes a third party.
* Constitution party  becomes a  majority party, as the Liberlas keep scaring off the conservative democrats and the  conservative ex-GOPhers. Then it's going to be a Democrat v. Constitution Party battle!

Smiley *Dreams more*



Utter Nonsense
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Vepres
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2009, 05:24:02 PM »

Here's a close election:

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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2009, 05:37:54 PM »

I like the map above, California would be a swing state IMO, and the GOP would actually have a presence in New England. North Carolina and Virginia would be trending more GOP with immigrant GOPers going down.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2009, 06:21:06 PM »

I like the map above, California would be a swing state IMO, and the GOP would actually have a presence in New England. North Carolina and Virginia would be trending more GOP with immigrant GOPers going down.

California has changed over the years and Hispanics are unlikely to favor a more libertarian party so New Mexico is unlikely as well.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2009, 06:38:44 PM »

I like the map above, California would be a swing state IMO, and the GOP would actually have a presence in New England. North Carolina and Virginia would be trending more GOP with immigrant GOPers going down.

California has changed over the years and Hispanics are unlikely to favor a more libertarian party so New Mexico is unlikely as well.
Why not? Hispanics would love more personal and economic freedom. The "new" Libertarian party would make sense.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2009, 08:03:50 PM »

I would consider changing parties.
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hcallega
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2009, 08:46:51 PM »

I like the map above, California would be a swing state IMO, and the GOP would actually have a presence in New England. North Carolina and Virginia would be trending more GOP with immigrant GOPers going down.

California has changed over the years and Hispanics are unlikely to favor a more libertarian party so New Mexico is unlikely as well.
Why not? Hispanics would love more personal and economic freedom. The "new" Libertarian party would make sense.

No they wouldn't.

In all seriousness Hispanic's are very socially conservative, at least in the sense that they are religous. However they see the GOP as the party of xenophobia and the Democrats as their best chance to succeed in America.  They would follow the Democrats, even if there was a libertarian party. The Catholic Church would not support the libertarians at all, also playing a big factor.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2009, 10:20:00 PM »

I like the map above, California would be a swing state IMO, and the GOP would actually have a presence in New England. North Carolina and Virginia would be trending more GOP with immigrant GOPers going down.

California has changed over the years and Hispanics are unlikely to favor a more libertarian party so New Mexico is unlikely as well.
Why not? Hispanics would love more personal and economic freedom. The "new" Libertarian party would make sense.

No they wouldn't.

In all seriousness Hispanic's are very socially conservative, at least in the sense that they are religous. However they see the GOP as the party of xenophobia and the Democrats as their best chance to succeed in America.  They would follow the Democrats, even if there was a libertarian party. The Catholic Church would not support the libertarians at all, also playing a big factor.
Still, if they were socially conservative, wouldn't it make sense if they were part of the Constitution party?  Isn't that the party of socially religious people?  Most Democrats are nothing but economically resistant.
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President Mitt
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2009, 09:03:00 AM »



My take on it, 2008

Dem- 216
Rep.- 215
Swing state- 107
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2009, 02:52:00 PM »

The GOP would be a distant third party. Libertarians here have not realized the basic truth that people from Hashami Rafsanjani in Iran to Ronald Reagan in the US have grasped; there is no electoral constituency anywhere in the world for economic conservatism. Everyone wants government money, they just disagree about who else should get it and what it should be spent on. So Economic Conservatives are forced to borrow someone else constituency.

You can chose economic liberals who care enough about social conservatism they are willing to put up with a nutty economic policy, or you can care so much about individual social freedom you go with the democrats despite their economic views.

Or of course you can win your 8% or 9% of the vote and feel all nice and pure.
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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2009, 03:10:44 PM »

The GOP would be a distant third party. Libertarians here have not realized the basic truth that people from Hashami Rafsanjani in Iran to Ronald Reagan in the US have grasped; there is no electoral constituency anywhere in the world for economic conservatism. Everyone wants government money, they just disagree about who else should get it and what it should be spent on. So Economic Conservatives are forced to borrow someone else constituency.

You can chose economic liberals who care enough about social conservatism they are willing to put up with a nutty economic policy, or you can care so much about individual social freedom you go with the democrats despite their economic views.

Or of course you can win your 8% or 9% of the vote and feel all nice and pure.

I would definitely like some proof.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2009, 04:21:17 PM »

The GOP would be a distant third party. Libertarians here have not realized the basic truth that people from Hashami Rafsanjani in Iran to Ronald Reagan in the US have grasped; there is no electoral constituency anywhere in the world for economic conservatism. Everyone wants government money, they just disagree about who else should get it and what it should be spent on. So Economic Conservatives are forced to borrow someone else constituency.

You can chose economic liberals who care enough about social conservatism they are willing to put up with a nutty economic policy, or you can care so much about individual social freedom you go with the democrats despite their economic views.

Or of course you can win your 8% or 9% of the vote and feel all nice and pure.

I would definitely like some proof.

The proof is that even people who promote economic conservatism and are elected don't govern that way. They give handouts as much as their predecessors, they just simultaniously cut taxes and borrow money to do both. Reagan is a great example.

The only legitimately economically conservative administration in recent times was that of Thatcher in England. She was immensely lucky. In her enemies, in that the opposition, which had majority support was split in two, and that she had good timing for elections. The aftermath of the Falklands war, and after her enemies had overplayed their hand with the miners strike. If you look below she was deeply unpopular throughout her tenure.

http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/media-centre-voting-intentions.php
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Farage
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2009, 02:57:27 PM »


even if I like some aspects of the libertarianism, it may be the death of the GOP because Evangelicals and Mormons will be highly dissapointed and may vote another party like for example Democratic. Hispanics will definitely vote Democratic because they are somewhat populist.
However, young voters and Asians will be key players in a potential match up
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President Mitt
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2009, 07:26:25 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2009, 07:28:48 AM by Giovanni »

How about No. Anti-Libertarian Hackery shifted into high gear.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2009, 02:01:17 PM »

How about No. Anti-Libertarian Hackery shifted into high gear.

What'd you expect? Red roses?

Being a libertarian on this forum is like being the stoner in gym class: nobody expects you to win.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2009, 01:36:11 AM »

LOL...
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aaaa2222
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« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2009, 12:09:40 PM »


I'd expect something like this being the norm, with the Democrats winning a solid majority of the popular vote in almost all elections. The GOP has a firm base of states, but really cannot expand its EV #s without a spectacular landslide.
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Vepres
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« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2009, 01:12:37 PM »

I actually think it would look a lot like Ford v. Carter 1976.
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