Former Bush pollster Jan van Lohuizen warns Republicans in a new memo they are increasingly on the wrong side of the gay marriage issue:

"The increase in support is taking place among all partisan groups. While more Democrats support gay marriage than Republicans, support levels among Republicans are increasing over time. The same is true of age: younger people support same sex marriage more often than older people, but the trends show that all age groups are rethinking their position."

Andrew Sullivan: "Read the bluntness of this. This is the GOP establishment talking to itself. And the Republican pollster who arguably knows more about the politics of the gay issue than anyone else (how else to explain the Ohio campaign of 2004?) is advising them in no uncertain terms that they need to evolve and fast, if they're not going to damage their brand for an entire generation:"

Political news from today's Times and around the Web, plus a look at the weekly addresses and the latest happenings in Washington.

by R. Lee Wrights

Hearing my name placed into consideration for the Libertarian Party’s nomination for President of the United States was the proudest moment of my life. It was a privilege and an honor for me to be considered for that august office by my family — the Libertarian Party.

When I started my campaign for the nomination I said that I was determined to ensure that whatever else happened the Libertarian Party would talk about war during the 2012 national convention. We did that. Every American who watched the presidential candidates debate or the convention proceedings on CSPAN heard that message loud and clear ? stop all war.

They also were treated to a fine example of how political discourse should be conducted in America. During the debate, they didn’t witness the spectacle of two men going after each other, out for blood and tearing each other apart. They saw two rational and reasonable people discussing alternative ways that liberty and freedom can bring peace and prosperity to our nation.

Yes, there were contentious debates and votes ? several votes ? over electing members of the national committee. But no blows were struck, no blood was spilled, and no one stormed out of the room. We resolved our differences peacefully and nominated candidates for President and Vice President every Libertarian can and should support.

We showed America that Libertarians are not the bogeymen the mainstream media and establishment politicians make us out to be. We showed America why libertarians are different and how, by being different, the Libertarian Party will make a difference in the 2012 election. I left the convention proudly wearing a Gary Johnson for President button.

My entire staff and I are unwaveringly committed to working for the Johnson-Gray ticket, and continuing the Million Vote March to get one million votes for the Libertarian candidate for President of the United States ? to get one million votes for peace, prosperity and progress.

Even after taking off a week to rest and recuperated in Vegas, I’m still at a loss for words to express how grateful I am to the members of my staff, all the volunteers who worked so hard on this campaign, the donors and supporters who made this campaign possible ? and my family, the Libertarian Party. I could not have done anything without your hard work, dedication, and perseverance.

I would thank you all from the bottom of my heart ? but for you, my heart has no bottom.

R. Lee Wrights has resumed his career as a writer and political activist living in Texas. He is currently the vice chairman of the Libertarian Party national committee. He is the co-founder and editor of the free speech online magazine Liberty For All. Contact Lee at rleewrights@gmail.com.

On May 8, the Oklahoma Senate agreed to a conference committee for HB 1058, the ballot access bill that has passed both chambers, but in different forms in each house. The House version cuts the number of signatures to exactly 22,500 signatures. The Senate version leaves the current 5% formula, but improves ballot access in midterm years by changing the base for the calculation from 5% of the vote cast in the preceding presidential election year, to the preceding gubernatorial (midterm) year.

According to this story, chances that the Maine legislature will pass a bill to hold a presidential primary have increased recently. The Republican caucuses in Maine in 2012 are perceived to have been flawed.

Rasmussen's status as an infallible pollster to the right, and a inevitable source of derision to the left, has been well established for years. But, looking at some of their recent polling (most notably, their daily tracking poll of the presidential race), it becomes difficult not to ask some serious questions about their data. When you are on an island as often as they have been lately, they are either prescient, or completely full of shit.

And while we have to wait till November to find out which one of those polar-opposite descriptions match the House of Ras, it is worth exploring today how far on the island they are, in a number of races.

Before that, though, the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (50-43)

OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (47-43)

WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (49-45)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Rob McKenna (R) 40, Jay Inslee (D) 38

WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tommy Thompson (R) 50, Tammy Baldwin (D) 38; Mark Neumann (R) 44, Baldwin 42; Baldwin 45, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you after the jump ...

President Obama visited Paul and Valerie Keller in Reno, Nev., Friday, to talk about the economy and the tough housing market, but didn't secure Mrs. Keller's vote.

Here's an open thread question for the crowd: If you had your own Super PAC (like 21 year-old John Ramsey), what would you name it? (Mine: In a nod to Bunk Moreland, "My Turn To Give A Fuck PAC".)

In the first poll to emerge after President Obama announced his support for same-sex marriage, a majority of Americans say it will make no difference to their vote in November.