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Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/6 (December 6, 2013, 09:00 AM)
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Top House Republican wants NRCC to cut off gay candidates (December 6, 2013, 08:00 AM)
? NRCC: Wow. This is some seriously nasty shit. Politico reports that senior Republican Rep. Randy Forbes has been waging a "lengthy crusade" to convince the NRCC not to support two prominent GOP House recruits, former Massachusetts state Sen. Richard Tisei and former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, simply because they are gay. Yeah, you read that right. So let's unpack this bigotry.
First off, on a purely electoral level, Forbes is a raving idiot, because both DeMaio and Tisei could definitely win?yet he'd rather forego two pickup opportunities because he's personally squicked out by gay people. That's so insane I can't even. But then, of course, there's the whole GOP rebranding fail, for the eleventy millionth time. "Top House Republican doesn't want teh gay in his caucus" certainly sends an open and inclusive message, does it not? Whether it's minorities, women, or LGBT Americans, Republicans really keep doing an excellent job with their outreach.
There's also an internal subtext to this story, too. House Armed Services Committee chair Buck McKeon looks likely to retire, and Forbes is angling for his post. So presumably some of his opponents shared this story with Politico to try to sabotage him, though Forbes hasn't denied anything. In fact, he reiterated his discomfort, saying, "There would be a different situation if they tried to force other members to give money" to DeMaio or Tisei.
So will any of this actually hurt Forbes? No one in his party denounced him; the furthest anyone went was NRCC chief Greg Walden, who said the committee would support candidates regardless of sexual orientation. So you really have to wonder how guys like Tisei and DeMaio feel, not only about getting dumped on by a top party leader, but about the fact that Forbes is walking away apparently unpunished for his prejudice. Then again, it's not like gay Republicans don't already know what their party is really like.
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/5 (December 5, 2013, 09:00 AM)
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Just how far have 2013 Democrats been running behind Obama? (December 5, 2013, 08:00 AM)
? Turnout: Real Clear Politics' Sean Trende has a new piece worth reading about the falloff in Democratic performance we've seen nationwide this year, a topic we've discussed often after two Democratic state senators in Colorado lost recall elections in September despite sitting in seats that Barack Obama carried with 58 to 59 percent of the vote. Relying extensively on Daily Kos Elections' district-level data, Trende analyzes 170 contested races at the statewide, federal, and legislative level that took place in 2013. On average, Democrats ran about 6 points behind the president, with just 27 exceeding his numbers and 47 doing 10 points worse.
So what does this mean for next year's elections? As Trende acknowledges, maybe nothing. Not only can a lot change, of course, but it's also possible that odd-numbered years are even worse for Democrats than midterm years. And even if a lot of Democrats do run well behind Obama, as long as they're in safe districts, it doesn't matter?it's vulnerable incumbents who need to be concerned. (And the hallmark of a strong candidate is the ability to put distance between him or herself and the national party, like Jon Tester or Heidi Heitkamp.) But if these trends hold broadly, then 2014 could be very problematic.
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/4 (December 4, 2013, 09:00 AM)
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Furious Virginia Republican quits party to run as an independent (December 4, 2013, 08:00 AM)
? VA State Senate: Looks like Virginia Democrats might get a major break in their efforts to hang on to Attorney General-elect Mark Herring's state Senate seat, thanks to deep?and familiar?fissures in the state GOP. Republican Delegate Joe May has announced that he'll run as an independent in the 33rd District, after party leaders opted to choose a nominee for the special election via a "mass meeting" rather than a traditional firehouse primary.
That move is reminiscent of the Republican Party's decision to nominate their statewide candidates earlier this year at a convention instead of via primary?a choice which made it easier for the crazies to come out on top. It also drove the more reasonable Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling out of the race for governor, and given Ken Cuccinelli's narrow loss last month, you'd think the GOP might be regretting how they let things play out.
But no, lesson not and never learned. And unlike Bolling, who merely considered an independent bid, May, who lost a primary in June to a more conservative challenger, is actually going through with it. If May splits the right-leaning vote in this light blue suburban district, that would seriously damage Republican chances for a pickup. And with the chamber currently split 20-20, every seat counts.
Democrats, meanwhile, are united behind attorney Jennifer Wexton. Two other Republicans are also running, pundit Ron Meyer and local GOP official John Whitbeck. Meyer sounds like a nobody, but Whitbeck you'll remember as the guy who told an antisemitic joke to warm up the crowd at a Cuccinelli rally in September. Good times.
Daily Kos Elections Tuesday open thread: Legislative specials in AL, CA, and GA (December 3, 2013, 06:00 PM)
We have a total of seven legislative special elections in three different states today. In Alabama we have a Democratic primary in HD-53. In HD-31 we have the first round of the Republican primary and in HD-104 we have the Republican primary runoff.
In California we have an all party primary in AD-54. All candidates are Democrats and two will advance to the general if no one gets more than 50 percent of the vote.
In Georgia we have three general elections, all between members of the same party. Two Democrats face off in HD-127, while HD-104 and SD-14 are all Republican affairs.
For information about the candidates, closing times, and future elections, see our calendar here.
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/3 (December 3, 2013, 09:00 AM)
There?s not much primary action for any of the other statewide offices. The only exception is the Republican primary for the open state treasurer position, where House Minority Leader Tom Cross and DuPage County Auditor Bob Grogan are both running. The winner will face Democratic state Sen. Mike Frerichs in November.
All eighteen of Illinois' members of the U.S. House filed to run again. Only Republican Rep. Rodney Davis in IL-13 faces a credible challenge for re-nomination, though his primary opponent, attorney and former Miss America Erika Harold, has stumbled out of the gate with poor fundraising. The remaining incumbents face either token primary opposition or none at all.
A couple of other primaries are looking potentially competitive on the challenger side. In the state's 11th Congressional District, five Republicans are running to take on Democratic Rep. Bill Foster, with state Rep. Darlene Senger looking like the frontrunner at the moment. And in the 13th, four Democrats are running to face Davis (or less likely Harold) in the general. Former state judge Ann Callis appears to be the favorite against physics professor George Gollin, with two little-known candidates also in the mix.
For a full list of candidates in every statewide partisan office and congressional seat, see our Google doc here. Also be sure to check out our 2014 calendar for all future filing deadlines and primary dates. (Darth Jeff)
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Conservative group airs first ad critical of filibuster reform (December 3, 2013, 08:00 AM)
? LA-Sen: A second Republican legislator who had considered a bid for Senate, state Sen. Elbert Guillory, has instead backed down and endorsed Rep. Bill Cassidy. State Rep. Alan Seabaugh did the same last month, though state Rep. Paul Hollis appears to still be weighing his options. It all has to be quite galling to Air Force vet Rob Maness, the only conservative true believer actually in the race. Guys like Seabaugh and Guillory get on Cassidy's case for insufficient piety, but then back down in the name of party unity. I guess for once the NRSC can consider itself a bit lucky on this front.
Meanwhile, the Judicial Crisis Network, a conservative group, is now airing an ad attacking Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu that's very similar to their earlier spot that went after Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor. As before, the narrator slams Landrieu for voting for "every one of Obama's liberal activist judges," but there's a new twist at the end. "Landrieu even helped change the rules to pack a key court with new liberal judges," says the voiceover, which probably makes this the first TV ad of the cycle to reference the partial rollback of the filibuster in the Senate.
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 12/2 (December 2, 2013, 09:00 AM)
8:33 AM PT: Calendar: Monday is the first filing deadline of the election cycle: Candidates in Illinois must submit petitions to get on the ballot for the state's March 18 primary, the second-earliest in the nation. (Texas is first.) Now you, too, can keep track of every state's filing deadline, primary, and runoff dates with our extremely bookmark-worthy 2014 calendar. And here's a very cool feature: If you use Google Calendar, you can click here to have all of these dates automatically added to your own personal calendar.
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