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Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread: What races are you interested in? (October 24, 2014, 07:40 PM)
Limahl -- "Never Ending Story"
Daily Kos Elections ad roundup: Bob Beauprez's pro-secession past returns to haunt him (October 24, 2014, 05:06 PM)
? CO-Gov: The DGA has two spots (here and here). The first attacks Republican Bob Beauprez over secession, which is not something you see every day. The narrator reads a Beauprez quote, where the candidate supports several conservative counties quest to form their own state.
Last year five counties voted to secede from Colorado, while six voted against it. The whole thing was symbolic since there was no way Congress and the Colorado Legislature would ever actually approve the creation of a new state as the Constitution requires. Since Beauprez announced his campaign for governor of the still-united state of Colorado he's been a lot less vocal about the idea, but the pro-secession quote in the ad is completely real.
The second Democratic spot goes after Beauprez in Spanish, while praising Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper.
Head below the fold for a roundup of campaign ads from races across the country.
Scott Brown can see Ebola from his porch (October 24, 2014, 02:39 PM)
The GOP's Ebola braintrust
Scott Brown is not going to let being totally embarrassed on statewide television by Wolf Blitzer stop him from making even more totally ridiculous statements about Ebola. No, he's on a roll, and he wants all of New Hampshire to share his panic. The Republican Senate candidate is sounding the alarm about "mass infection."
"The way to stop mass infection is by swift and decisive action, including a travel ban and quarantining health workers returning from countries where Ebola is prevalent," Brown said in a statement. "This is not a time for political correctness; it's a time for common-sense prevention mechanisms." [?]You guys!!!! Ebola is LESS THAN 300 MILES AWAY!!! MASS EPIDEMIC!!! Never mind that it's only been half a dozen people in the U.S. and that only one person has died and that most of them, including one of the nurses who took care of the one person who died, have gotten better.
It's almost enough to make Sen. Rand Paul's "cocktail party Ebola" sound like a reasonable fear in comparison.
You can donate to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen here. You can help keep the Senate blue with your $3 here.Oh, and that travel ban? It's not a matter of political correctness. It's a matter of the experts (who Brown may or may not believe in, he apparently hasn't decided yet) who uniformly say the travel ban would do more harm than good at this point. But Scott Brown has a script. It's far too much to ask him to learn a new one that makes sense.
Daily Kos Elections Early Voting Report: Florida and North Carolina Democrats seeing what they need (October 24, 2014, 01:44 PM)
Democrat Charlie Crist
In-person voting started in North Carolina on Thursday, while Democrats are preparing for a big get-out-the-vote operation on Sunday in Florida. For now, Democrats are seeing what they need to see in both states?something that can absolutely not be said about Nevada.
? Florida: Since it started on Monday, in-person voting has helped Democrats make up some of the deficit they faced among mail voting. They have narrowed the GOP's advantage among all voters who have already cast their ballot by 1-percentage point each of the past two days. As of Friday, Republicans have an advantage of 9.8 percentage points among the 1.5 million early voters.
During the last midterms, Florida Republicans ended up with an advantage of 14 percentage points among all early voters. And this year's gap should continue to shrink as more Floridians vote in-person and offset absentee ballots. In fact, Florida Democrats have historically turned out at a higher pace over weekends thanks to their ?souls to the polls? Sunday push, so stay tuned for Monday's report.
Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist's campaigns each wrote memos this week arguing that their side is doing great among early voters. As you can see, while Crist's memo primarily compares the current numbers to the 2010 cycle, Scott's memo primarily compares them to 2012. There is no denying that Democrats had a banner year in early voting in Florida thanks to Barack Obama's operation, but we also don't need this to tell us that Democrats face a turnout gap in midterm elections.
Races around the country are coming down to the wire. Please chip in $3 to help Democrats win.Head over the fold for a look at early voting in Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Casino magnate to the rescue for Republicans in New Hampshire (October 24, 2014, 12:35 PM)
Sheldon Adelson, John Boehner's sugar daddy
Not content with just having a healthy enough majority to make sure that absolutely nothing happens in Congress, Republicans are trying to claim a historic victory in the House for 2014. So of course, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson steps up with a massive donation to a Super PAC tied to House Speaker John Boehner, targeting Democratic Rep. Carol Shea Porter in New Hampshire.
Adelson's donation helped the Congressional Leadership Fund collect nearly $6.8 million during the first two weeks of October?nearly double what the group raised during the previous three-month period. [?]Polling on Shea-Porter's rematch with ex. Rep. Frank Guinta is all over the place. (Guinta beat Shea-Porter in 2010 and lost to her by a narrow margin in 2012.) But most observers call this one 50-50.
Let's make Boehner cry. Please send $3 to keep Carol Shea-Porter in the House.This is a grudge match as much as anything on Boehner and Adelson's part. They had that seat?held by a dyed-in-the-wool teabagger in Guinta?and want it back. They don't need it, but they want it. And they'll spend anything to get it.
A new poll confirms it: Mike Michaud needs our help to win (October 24, 2014, 11:56 AM)
Democrat Mike Michaud
On behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, PPP takes another look at the Pine Tree State's gubernatorial contest and finds what most recent polls have found: A close and unpredictable contest between Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud. PPP finds the two deadlocked 40-40, with left-leaning independent Eliot Cutler taking 17.
LePage is not popular: PPP finds him with an upside down 43-53 favorability rating. Michaud and his allies have been running ads reminding voters why they dislike LePage so much: One ad describes how, among other things, LePage twice compared the IRS to the Nazis and told the NAACP to kiss his butt. Another spot features LePage's infamous remark, "If you want a good education, go to private schools. If you can't afford it, tough luck."
The problem is that national Republicans have been hitting Michaud on the airwaves, arguing that he wants to help undocumented immigrants at the expense of the middle class. PPP finds Michaud with a 47-46 rating, better than LePage but not where he wants to be. By comparison, Cutler has a 39-38 rating.
Back in 2010 Cutler came very close to beating LePage, but there's no doubt that he's holding Michaud back. In a two-way race, Michaud would lead LePage by a more comfortable 49-44. The good news for Democrats is that Cutler has all but stopped running ads, and if he fades Michaud should benefit. The bad news is that Cutler is too well known to completely crater, and he can still take enough votes to give LePage a second term. The Republicans are well aware of this, and they've been sending mailers to Democratic voters to boost Cutler and Michaud's expense. Right now it looks like Cutler's decline could give Michaud some much-needed room to grow, but in a race like this nothing is certain at all.
Don't let America's craziest governor win again. Please chip inLet's make sure LePage's days as governor are numbered. Please give today.
Good news for Scott Brown, one more debate is done. Bad news? There's still one more. (October 24, 2014, 11:50 AM)
Sen. Shaheen can't believe her ears, either.
This has been a rough week for Scott Brown on the debate front. On Tuesday, he had to try to explain why he thinks ISIS is poised at the border with Mexico, ready to attack. He failed. He also brought down the house, and not in a supportive way, when he tried to claim native New Hampshire cred. But to truly appreciate how much Scottie's campaign manager fears Scottie opening his mouth, you have to consider Thursday night with Wolf Blitzer on Ebola.
First there's this nugget:
Brown criticized President Barack Obama for hiring an "Ebola czar" who is not a medical doctor. [?]We don't need to be experts to deal with it but Obama needs to have an expert to deal with it. That's common sense only if you're Scott Brown. But the best part, oh, the best part, is this exchange about Brown's assertion that Ebola would ever have come to the U.S. if Mitt Romney were president.
BLITZER: You said "I guarantee we would not be worrying about Ebola right now had Mitt Romney been president of the United States." Do you stand by that?Yes, thank you Wolf, for repeating it four times. Because it is pure gold.
Scott Brown has no place in the Senate anymore. But these candidates do. Help them get there with your $3.The next debate is next Thursday, with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News as a moderator along with WMUR?s Josh McElveen. I, for one, can't wait to find out what comic relief Scottie is going to bring to that one.
100 percent vote-by-mail makes Colorado extra unpredictable (October 24, 2014, 11:42 AM)
Colorado Sen. Mark Udal could benefit significantly from his state's 100 percent vote-by-mail.
That, in itself, doesn't mean current Colorado polling is understating Democratic support. If the undercount is due to Latino voters, and Latino voters don't turn out this year, then it would have little effect on the numbers. But there's something else at play that suggests that pollsters are driving blind?Colorado is now a 100 percent vote-by-mail state. That means that people don't have to drag themselves to the polls to vote; they'll be getting their ballots in the mail. Thus, any effort to model turnout based on a 2010 electorate isn't just wrong because this isn't 2010, but because the dynamics of voting have dramatically changed in these last four years.
I'm in the school that says we'll hold on to the two key races in Colorado. But at this point, that's just an educated guess. Or is it? Project New America has some intriguing data:
There are 1 million active registered voters in Colorado who voted in 2012 but didn't vote in 2010 or registered after 2012. They were sent a ballot last week. In our survey, 83 percent say they have already voted or plan on voting. According to Catalist voter file returns from Oct 23, 2014, 89,000 have already voted (making these Presidential Survey voters 21 percent of votes cast already).The details of the poll, which remember, only covers irregular or new post-2012 voters (the kind that wouldn't pass a traditional "likely voter" screen).
* 82 percent received a ballot in the mail
In Colorado, we have endorsed in the secretary of state race, you can donate for this critical race here. You can also donate to Mark Udall at his website here, and John Hickenlooper at his website here.Those voters aren't counted in much of the public polling, either because they're hard to reach (cellphone only) or because they don't pass through tough "likely voter" screens (didn't vote in 2010 or, for younger voters, 2012). In Colorado, Democrats don't need to figure out a way to drag these irregular voters to the polls, they just need them to mail back the ballot?a much lighter and easier lift.
McConnell boasts of 2005 effort to create private Social Security accounts (October 24, 2014, 11:37 AM)
This is how much you should trust Mitch on Social Security
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, handing Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes yet another golden issue in her campaign to thwart McConnell's sixth term in the U.S. Senate during a Thursday speech at the Louisville Rotary Club:
Though he hasn?t mentioned it much on the campaign trail over the past year, McConnell specifically touted his effort to push President George W. Bush?s plans to reform Social Security in 2005, which would have set up private accounts for retirees.Another way of looking at what happened is this: Bush's scheme for private Social Security accounts was so deeply unpopular that not even Joe Lieberman, who would go on to leave the Democratic Party and endorse John McCain in 2008, could support it. It was so unpopular that Republicans, even though they controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress, couldn't push it through.
Help elect the kinds of Democrats who will fight to make Social Security stronger?chip in $3 to Daily Kos-endorsed candidates across the nation.And yet here we are in 2014, with Mitch McConnell bragging about his failed effort to push it through. Of course, this is Mitch McConnell, so he stopped short of saying he'd try to do it again, instead refusing to tell Insider Louisville's Joe Sonka what his plans would be:
Insider Louisville asked McConnell after the event if he would make a push for such reforms to Social Security if he was elected Senate Majority Leader and could set the agenda, but he declined to reveal if he would do so.It's worth remembering that before the 2004 election, President Bush also refused to say whether he'd try to create private Social Security accounts. Of course, that's exactly what he ended up doing, so the mere fact that McConnell?like Bush before him?is being slippery about his agenda shouldn't stop Grimes from pouncing.
Scott Walker and the RGA are afraid, very afraid (October 24, 2014, 10:28 AM)
The Republican Governor's Association is parachuting in to Wisconsin to save a faltering Scott Walker, upping their original $900,000 budget for the last days of the campaign to $2 million.
The decision comes amid a flurry of concern in GOP ranks that Walker is underfunded and at risk of losing.Gee, why would anyone think Christie would do that? The Weekly Standard also suggests that they'll be "scrutinizing" the FEC reports at the end of the election to make sure that the RGA does indeed fulfill its promise. Walker himself seems to be feeding this narrative, and whined this weekend that the RGA?which has put $6 million into his campaign already?was just going to need to step up with a cash infusion: "Hopefully that comes through. [?] We are always looking for more help. Our main help has to be the RGA."
Fuel the Christie/Walker feud, and boot Walker. Please donate $3 to Mary Burke.Walker makes no attempt to hide that he is in panic mode, and for good reason. The polls are as tight as can be. This one is Mary Burke's to win.
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