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Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Welcome to contrary poll-a-palooza! (April 26, 2012, 08:00 PM)
Today's data is like some odd play off of that old elementary school stand-by: "Opposite Day".
Used to seeing data showing Barack Obama with a modest lead over Mitt Romney? There are only two presidential polls out today, and both of them give Romney a slight edge.
Used to seeing longtime veteran GOP Sen. Dick Lugar struggling, but at least leading, his tea-infused challenger Richard Mourdock? A new poll out today has Lugar down five.
Worried after last week's PPP polls showed that the legislative recall elections in Wisconsin might face an uphill battle? A new set of polls out today put the Democrats in the lead in one race, and within striking range of two more.
Welcome to pollster Opposite Day! Here's the data:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-45)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-02 (Lake Research for Solomon): Jared Huffman (D) 18, Norman Solomon (D) 10, Susan Adams (D) 8, Stacey Lawson (D) 5 (++)A few thoughts, as always, after the jump.
AZ-Pres: Dead heat in Arizona (April 26, 2012, 10:18 AM)
(White House photo, Rebecca Cook/Reuters)
Romney: 42Behavior Research Centers/Rocky Mountain Poll. Arizona RVs. April 7-19. ±4.4%. (Jan results)
Obama: 42 (37)Arizona has 11 electoral votes, so it's a big prize?and not the kind of state that Mitt Romney wants to be in play. It seems that while his embrace of SB 1070 might have helped him in the primary, it's not giving him a boost in the general.
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/26 (April 26, 2012, 10:00 AM)
7:48 AM PT: CA-02: Activist Norman Solomon is touting a new internal poll from Lake Research which he says shows him "in good position" to finish in the top two in June's primary?but we have long memories here at Daily Kos Elections, and if you look back to a prior Solomon poll (also from Lake) that he released in October, the trendlines aren't especially auspicious. The new survey has Assemblyman Jared Huffman at 18, Solomon at 10, Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams at 8, and businesswoman Stacey Lawson at 5. (The two Republicans in the race, including Dan Roberts, are at 3% or less.)
Last fall, though, Solomon's polling had the race at Huffman 16, Roberts 12, Solomon 11, Adams 4, and Lawson 4. So Huffman's ticked up a bit, Adams has doubled her share, and Solomon has dropped a point. Solomon still argues that he has a "clear path to finish in the top two" because his is the "second-most recognized candidate in the race" (after Huffman), but it looks like he's in a serious dogfight, and that his standing hasn't improved in the last six months.
8:02 AM PT: WI Recall: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee?the official party committee which works on state legislative races?is out with its own polling of the Wisconsin state Senate recalls which differ considerably from the less-than-optimistic numbers PPP found about ten days ago. You'll want to check out their full memo (PDF), which offers a lot more detail than is typical, including comparisons to rarely-seen performance numbers from the National Committee for an Effective Congress. But here's a summary of the surveys (from Myers Research):
SD-21: John Lehman (D): 51, Van Wanggaard (R-inc): 47
8:15 AM PT: IN-Sen: Even if Wenzel Strategies is a dodgy pollster (they also poll for the batshit WorldNetDaily) and you aren't sure whether to trust their toplines, their trendlines aren't good for Dick Lugar at all. The Republican senator now trails his GOP primary opponent, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, 39 to 44, whereas in mid-March, he clung to a 45-39 lead in Wenzel's last poll (on behalf of Citizens United). That's a swing of eleven points, and the primary is just twelve days away. What odds would you give on Lugar surviving?
8:38 AM PT: NY-06: Man, the attempt to put up a phony candidate with a Jewish-sounding name has turned into some serious Frick and Frack nonsense in New York's new 6th Congressional District. First there was Jeffrey Gottlieb, a Board of Elections employee who bailed because someone dug up the fact that he'd once been prosecuted for arson (!) in the 1970s (!)?for torching his own home. Then there was attorney Stephen Green, who lasted a single day. Finally, there came allergist Robert Mittman, but he didn't want this flaming bag of dog poop any more than the others, so he, too, has decided to quit.
But there's a problem: It's too late for Mittman to get off the ballot, unless "his" (aka Gottlieb's) nominating petitions get thrown out. I think there's a good chance they will, since signature challenges are indeed already pending, and I'm sure the corrupt schmucks who put Gottlieb on the ballot in the first place didn't exactly do a bang-up job circulating petitions. (Gottlieb's first name was mis-spelled on his forms.) So I suspect in the end, this whole farce designed to hurt the chances of Assemblyman Rory Lancman in the Democratic primary will finally get interred.
The ranks of Republican attorneys general have swelled dramatically in the last decade, resulting in a nearly even nationwide partisan split that is unprecedented in modern history. Republican attorneys general now number 24 of the 50 state attorneys general, compared with just 12 as recently as 2000.
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: John Raese defends Ted Nugent from the thought police (April 26, 2012, 08:00 AM)
? WV-Sen: Republican businessman John Raese appears to be determined to keep putting his foot further and further into his mouth until he's metabolizing his own shinbone. The three-time Senate loser, now attempting to avenge his 2010 savaging by Democratic then-Gov. Joe Manchin, caught flak over the weekend for making the reasonable point that anti-smoking laws are really just like forcing Jews to wear the Star of David in Nazi Germany. Now he's at it again, defending far-right rocker Ted Nugent over comments the Nuge made suggesting Republicans should "chop off [Democrats'] heads in November" and saying that if President Barack Obama is reelected, he intends to be either dead or in jail by next spring.
Raese went on to compare Nugent's comment to a football coach using a figure of speech, adding that investigating Nugent is a means of "controlling the people."Raese's antics raise the prospect that Manchin might even manage to get reelected this year without having to shoot a Democratic agenda item with a rifle in a campaign ad. (SaoMagnifico)
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The Rasmussen disconnect deepens (April 25, 2012, 08:00 PM)
Critiques of Rasmussen polling from the left have become something of a time-honored tradition, particularly here at Daily Kos. Today, though, it is not just a matter of them being on an island. It is a matter of them showing two politicians at equal strength in a state where, perhaps unsurprisingly, no other pollster has found them garnering the same level of support since early February.
More on that later. For now, the numbers:
(GOP) PRIMARY PRESIDENTIAL POLLING (It ... won't ... die!):
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 48, Gingrich 30, Paul 12PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (Anzalone Liszt for Carmona): Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 39A few thoughts, as always, await you after the jump...
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/25 (April 25, 2012, 10:00 AM)
7:05 AM PT (sapelcovits): NY-06: Back when state Board of Elections employee Jeffrey Gottlieb skedaddled out of the Democratic primary here, he designated attorney Stephen Green to run in his place. Gottlieb and Green, of course, were thought by many pundits to be deliberate spoilers pushed by the Queens Democratic Party to help its preferred candidate, Assemblywoman Grace Meng, by splitting the Jewish vote in the Democratic primary. (Meng's main primary rival, Assemblyman Rory Lancman, is Jewish.)
Now, however, Green himself has quietly exited from the race. Nevertheless, fans of political intrigue will be relieved to know that there are still two sketchy candidates in the race: TV reporter Juan Sheng (who, like Meng, is Chinese-American) and Jewish-sounding doctor Robert Mittman (who, like any legitimate candidate with nothing to hide, is ignoring repeated calls from reporters). Both Sheng and Mittman, however, could still get the boot if their candidate petitions don't have enough valid signatures.
7:15 AM PT (SaoMagnifico): WV-Sen: Republican businessman John Raese appears to be determined to keep putting his foot further and further into his mouth until he's metabolizing his own shinbone. The three-time Senate loser, now attempting to avenge his 2010 savaging by Democratic then-Gov. Joe Manchin, caught flak over the weekend for making the reasonable point that anti-smoking laws are really just like forcing Jews to wear the Star of David in Nazi Germany. Now he's at it again, defending far-right rocker Ted Nugent over comments the Nuge made suggesting Republicans should "chop off [Democrats'] heads in November" and saying that if President Barack Obama is reelected, he intends to be either dead or in jail by next spring.
Raese went on to compare Nugent's comment to a football coach using a figure of speech, adding that investigating Nugent is a means of "controlling the people."Raese's antics raise the prospect that Manchin might even manage to get reelected this year without having to shoot a Democratic agenda item with a rifle in a campaign ad.
7:41 AM PT (SaoMagnifico): WI-Gov: The hits keep on coming for former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, whom public polls have consistently found trailing Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in the abbreviated race for the Democratic nomination in this recall election. Now Dave Catanese over at Politico reports he's obtained part of an internal strategy memo from the Dane campaign including primary poll numbers. Paul Maslin, the Madison pollster working on behalf of Dane, finds her trailing Barrett 32-40.
Meanwhile, Democratic Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca, who shot down entreaties for him to make his own gubernatorial bid just two weeks ago, says he's endorsing Barrett. The two men have long been close, so this endorsement comes as no surprise, but it does appear Barrett is consolidating much of the establishment support in this race.
Barrett also has a new campaign ad out (NWOTSOTB), which you can see below. It's essentially just a clip from one of Barrett's campaign speeches attacking Republican Gov. Scott Walker's "ideological war" on women with unflattering headlines about Walker overlaid.
7:47 AM PT (SaoMagnifico): IN-Sen: State Treasurer Richard Mourdock pounds his Republican primary rival, longtime Sen. Richard Lugar, over the issue of Lugar's disputed residency in a new ad, which you can see below. The ad also manages to paint Lugar as a Washington insider, attack his personal friendliness with President Obama, and box the 36-year senator's ears for being, say it with me, insufficiently conservative.
The campaign plans a six-figure buy for the spot on broadcast stations in Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne, South Bend and Evansville, as well as statewide cable.
8:08 AM PT (SaoMagnifico): NH-01: As rallying cries go, it could be a lot catchier, but Democratic ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is going after Republican Rep. Frank Guinta, who ousted her in 2010, over his use of franked mail. A congressional privilege intended to lower the costs and ease the efficiency of official business, franking is the practice of sending mail without a stamp. Because it costs the taxpayer-funded United States Postal Service a chunk of change to transport envelopes and parcels from place to place, that essentially means the taxpayer picks up the bill for franked mail delivery. Anyway, despite criticizing Shea-Porter in 2010 for her use of franked mail, Guinta apparently now sends more franked mail than any other member of Congress. Shea-Porter and the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC are trying to make hay of it.
?It sure didn?t take long for Frank Guinta to embrace the ways of House GOP hypocrisy,? declared Andy Stone, the House Majority PAC?s communications director. ?After criticizing his opponent for the practice, Guinta not only began doing the same thing, but despite calling it a ?waste? and ?unnecessary,? spent more taxpayer dollars than any other member of Congress in doing so.?Guinta's response, predictably, is that the situations are totally different because Guinta is using his mail for constituent services, as if Shea-Porter were just sending franked postcards to all her friends. Anyway, it's difficult to see this catching on as a serious campaign issue, but if this is what the Shea-Porter campaign and House Majority PAC want to spend their ammo on, not much I can do to stop them.
8:17 AM PT (SaoMagnifico): VA-Gov: It's not every day you see Daily Kos Elections link to celebrity gossip site TMZ, but it looks like they've got a political news scoop -- though someone might want to make sure it's not still April Fools' Day over there. According to the report, White House gate-crasher Tareq Salahi is now endeavoring to extend his 15 minutes of fame just a little while longer by filing papers to run for governor of Virginia next year -- as a Republican. They have a PDF of his filing document, too. This could be either fun or just painful to watch. (h/t ndrwmls10)
8:24 AM PT (SaoMagnifico): ME-Sen: Former Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap was one of four candidates -- all of them Democrats -- to show up at a forum hosted by the Maine League of Young Voters ten days ago, and it's Dunlap who is now walking away with the group's endorsement. Click the link for what may be your last chance this cycle to read a Maine Senate story that doesn't mention the name "Angus King".
8:31 AM PT (Xenocrypt): PA-HD-182: It's a bit in the weeds, but it looks like PA will have its first-ever openly-LGBT state legislator, as Brian Sims leads incumbent Babette Josephs by 233 votes, with 55/63 precincts in. And, you might well ask, as Philly.com asked,
Why the hold-up? Well, not all of the cartridges were turned in, said Rich Vito, computer operator for the City Commissioners. The count will resume tomorrow and should be complete by tomorrow afternoon.Anyway, according to Phillyelectionresults.com, there's an interesting breakdown so far. 7,090 votes have been cast so far, and Sims trails 1803/1916 in the Ward 8 part of the district--that's Rittenhouse Square and West Center City, and 23/30 precincts counted. However, Sims leads 640/385 in the small part of the district in Ward 5, East Center City--which, as our own okiedem noticed, includes the city's "Gayborhood", and 9/10 precincts counted. Sims also led 452/265 in the 5 precincts in Ward 30 (South of South), but trailed 196/355 in the 7 precincts in ward 36 (Grey's Ferry), while leading 570/507 in the 11 precincts in Ward 1 (Bella Vista and Passayunk). And h/t to the trailing incumbent for her neighborhood map, as well as to the Committee of Seventy ward map.
Anyway, this is a big deal. Not only has PA never had an openly-gay legislator, but Philadelphia is, by far, the largest city to have never had an openly-LGBT City Council member, as far as I know.
8:35 AM PT (SaoMagnifico): DCCC: We didn't mention it yesterday, but in addition to those new Red-to-Blue races, the DCCC has added 12 new candidates (as well as NY-23, where there is no clear Democratic frontrunner) to its "Emerging Races" list:
Q. Byrum Hurst (AR-04), Blong Xiong (CA-21), Gloria Romero Roses (FL-26), Teresa Hensley (MO-04), Hayden Rogers (NC-11), Mark Murphy (NY-11), Dan Lamb (NY-22), Joyce Healy-Abrams (OH-07), Sharen Neuhardt (OH-10), George Badey (PA-07), Larry Maggi (PA-18), Matt Varilek (SD-AL)Whereas the "Emerging Candidates" list seems to be reserved for candidates the DCCC sees as having upside potential but probably worse-than-even odds of winning in November (ranging from slight underdogs, like Xiong and Murphy, to real long-shots, like Neuhardt and Maggi), the "Majority Makers" category is reserved for Democrats the DCCC expects will win and wants to free up excess campaign cash for use in more competitive districts. Four candidates were newly added to that list:
Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Dan Kildee (MI-05), Dina Titus (NV-01), Joyce Beatty (OH-03)
8:37 AM PT (Xenocrypt): Oh, and while this got deleted thanks to my fumble yesterday, I just wanted to reiterate my gratitude to David and co. for this opportunity, and for the chance to work with the fine posters James, Sao, and Sapel--a sentiment which has hardly diminished after getting a chance to work with them yesterday.
8:42 AM PT (Xenocrypt): To somewhat pedantically correct myself: Ward 8 ends on Lombard, not South, so technically Ward 30 includes a small bit of West Center City.
8:59 AM PT (sapelcovits): FL-16: Another day, another shaky Republican poll. This time, it's embattled Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan, whose Public Opinion Strategies poll shows him leading Democratic State Rep. Keith Fitzgerald by an imposing 58-36 margin. In addition to the pollster's partisan origins, of course, the poll suffers from a rather rotund margin of error (4.9 points) and is over a month old. Still, unless Fitzgerald can produce his own poll showing him in a better position, he'll have to make more hay of Buchanan's ethical issues if he wants to gain traction in this John McCain-supporting district.
9:00 AM PT (James Allen): OR-AG: Oregon Attorney General John Kroger has announced he'll step down later this summer to take on his new appointment as President of Reed College. That means that any appointment to fill out the remainder of his term will not likely have any impact on the race to fill the next whole term for AG, which will likely be decided on May 15th, the day of the Democratic primary, as no Republican filed in this race.
9:08 AM PT (sapelcovits): TN State Leg.: Wow. If you thought Tennessee Democrats had hit rock bottom after 2010 (when two red-district Democratic congressmen chose to retire and the third got spanked), this article from the Tennessean might come as a rude surprise. Republicans are saying legislative redistricting will net them another 5 to 7 seats in the State House, giving them a comfortable supermajority. The Democrats don't dispute this; in fact, the best that House Democratic Caucus leader Mike Turner can say in response is, "For 140 years, people were satisfied with us. Maybe they?ll come back." Translation: "We're screwed."
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Two Blue Dog House members fall in Pennsylvania primaries (April 25, 2012, 08:00 AM)
PA-12, PA-17: The biggest news from Pennsylvania's primaries on Tuesday night may be the losses of two different Blue Dog Democratic House members: Jason Altmire in PA-12 and Tim Holden in PA-17. Altmire lost to fellow member Mark Critz by a 54-46 margin; the two of them were forced into the same southwest Pennsylvania district by a Republican-drawn map. The majority of redrawn PA-12 is on Altmire's turf, but Critz managed to eke out the victory thanks to aggressive labor backing and huge turnout in his own smaller portion of the district (in the Johnstown area). Critz is no liberal either, but is considered more labor-friendly than Altmire.
The other loss was Holden in the 17th, which was redrawn dramatically to be a Democratic vote sink for the cities of northeastern Pennsylvania. Holden has had great success fending off Republican challengers in GOP-leaning districts for the last few decades, but ran out of luck when put into a Dem-leaning district and facing an opponent from the left. (Also a big problem for Holden: less than a quarter of his new constituents were in his old district, so he was effectively a blank slate to most of them. His opponent, Matt Cartwright, is a well-known local trial lawyer in the Scranton area, and may have actually had the name rec advantage despite not having an incumbency advantage.)
Other highlights from last night: Rich guy Tom Smith, as expected, was the winner of the Republican Senate primary. He's a serious underdog against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. in November. State Rep. Scott Perry won the open seat primary in the safely-GOP PA-04 (vacated by retiring Todd Platts), and is a shoo-in in November. Rep. Tim Murphy easily turned back a tea party-fueled challenge from Evan Feinberg in the GOP primary in PA-18. And in the Democratic primary for the Pennsylvania Attorney General's race, netroots fave and former Rep. Patrick Murphy lost to prosecutor Kathleen Kane, ending his comeback bid.
Daily Kos Elections Pennsylvania primary liveblog #2 (April 24, 2012, 10:02 PM)
The Pennsylvania primary action continues!
7:07 PM PT: So, just a basic recap of the races that seem pretty much resolved (with 59% reporting statewide):
7:08 PM PT: Hmm, at the legislative level, this seems interesting: state House majority leader Sam Smith has lost his GOP primary, in HD-66, by only 107 votes.
7:10 PM PT: In PA-17, it's still Cartwright 55, Holden 45. Holden is crushing in the coal-country portions of the district (and the parts that he used to represent), Schuykill and Carbon Counties, but getting blown out elsewhere.
7:13 PM PT: So, the main drama left seems to be PA-12. It's now Critz 55, Altmire 45. Can Critz pull this out? A big report from rural Somerset Co. (south of Johnstown) went Critz's way, as he won 87-12 there. There are also some Beaver Co. reports, which as expected was good for Altmire. Westmoreland Co. seems to be the slowest to report, and, as I've said before, that'll be the decisive one. Right now, Altmire leads in Westmoreland only 51-49.
7:15 PM PT: No surprise here: the AP has called the PA-Sen R primary for Tom Smith. He moves on to get flattened by Bob Casey Jr. in November.
7:20 PM PT: Holy crap! There are reports, via Twitter, that Jason Altmire has just conceded. Guess I wasn't the only one starting to wonder how he'd eke it out. Congratulations to Mark Critz, who advances to face Republican Keith Rothfus in the general. (Congratulations to labor, too, who went all out to boost Critz.)
7:20 PM PT: The AP has called PA-17 for Matt Cartwright, who dispatched the previously indestructible Tim Holden. (Apparently he's indestructible only to Republicans.)
7:25 PM PT: It goes without saying (well, I guess I'm saying it anyway) that with the losses of Jason Altmire and Tim Holden, that's two fewer Blue Dogs in the Democratic caucus next year. (Not that Critz is a raging liberal, but in both primaries, PA-12 and PA-17, the more labor-friendly candidate won.)
7:27 PM PT: Actually, I'm reminded that Holden was running with the AFL-CIO's backing in PA-17, so that labor-friendly statement is a mixed bag. Cartwright was generally positioned to Holden's left, though.
7:26 PM PT (Steve Singiser): In addition to all the primary action, we also had a set of six special legislative elections in the Pennsylvania state House. Democrats are on track to pick up a seat tonight: in HD-169, former state deputy Labor secretary Ed Neilson holds a 56-44 lead over former legislative aide David Kralle. Everything else thus far is a hold for the incumbent party. That said, there is an amazing quirky outcome about to happen. Democrat Martin Schmotzer is about to hold LD-22 for the blue team. He leads GOPer Chris Cratsley by a 59-41 margin. But the celebration for Schmotzer is short-lived, as he is also about to lose the Democratic primary for the regular term. Erin Molchany has a 52-39 lead over Schmotzer.
7:33 PM PT: It's mostly academic at this point, but with 78% reporting statewide, that Mark Critz lead is still basically holding, at 54-46. Westmoreland County is going very slightly for Altmire at 52-48, and Altmire cleaned up in his counties, at around 70% in Allegheny, Beaver, and Lawrence Counties. But Critz cleaned up even more in his counties, getting 90% in Cambria and Somerset. That edge in the Johnstown area is basically the tale of the tape.
7:35 PM PT: Here's a helpful stat from Dave Wasserman that underscores what I was just talking about: Critz's old portion of PA-12 is only 27% of the voters in the new 12th, but it accounted for 40% of the turnout tonight. That's some pretty amazing home-turf GOTV.
7:41 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Business might be picking up in that Democratic primary for Attorney General, where Patrick Murphy still trails Kathleen Kane, but the margin has shrunk noticeably. The lead for Kane is down to six points, and Murphy strongholds like Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery counties still have loads of precincts to report. A cursory glance hints that it might be a little too little and a little too late, but the jury is still out?AP has yet to make a call on this race.
7:45 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Apparently, I am a jinx for Patrick Murphy. No sooner did I post that, then the AP called the race for Kane.
7:49 PM PT: Murphy's closing is too little too late... the AP has called the AG primary for Kathleen Kane, which unfortunately cuts short Patrick Murphy's comeback bid. (Wonder if he's regretting not trying to take back PA-08 instead?) The AP has also called PA-12 for Mark Critz, although the Altmire concession made that pretty clear already.
With that, all the tight races seem to have come to a close in the Pennsylvania primary, and we're calling it a night at Daily Kos Elections.
Daily Kos Elections Pennsylvania primary liveblog (April 24, 2012, 07:51 PM)
No offense to those of you who are here to watch the Republican presidential primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island, but Pennsylvania is the main event tonight. The Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary might be the marquee event, but the drama is mostly on the Dem side, where there are hot primaries in PA-12 (between pitted-together members Jason Altmire and Mark Critz) and PA-17 (between Tim Holden and challenger Matt Cartwright). Polls close shortly, at 8 pm Eastern.
5:31 PM PT: While we wait for anything out of Pennsylvania, let's check in on the Prez-only states. Major media outlets already reporting that Connecticut and Rhode Island have been called for Mitt Romney. No call in Delaware, but Newt Gingrich isn't winning the state's two "southern" counties (Kent and Sussex), so he's not likely to win even a single county tonight anywhere.
5:41 PM PT: OK, we've got 0.1% reporting in Pennsylvania, and nothing at all in the key House primaries. In the PA-Sen primary Tom Smith is well ahead of the rest of the GOP field, at 39%, with Steve Welch and Sam Rohrer each at 21%. Meanwhile, Delaware has been called for Mitt Romney, who's sitting at 57%.
5:52 PM PT: For the moment, the SoS office, who shows 0.7% reporting, is ahead of the AP in Pennsylvania. We've got our first votes showing in PA-12 and PA-17. In the 12th, Jason Altmire's way ahead (69-31), and in the 17th, Matt Cartwright's way ahead (74-26). However, the votes reported are from their stronghold counties (Allegheny and Lackawanna, respectively), so that'll recede as we get a broader sample.
5:55 PM PT: Statewide in Pennsylvania, Tom Smith (who dominated the airwaves compared to his small-dollar opponents) is adding to his lead in the GOP Senate primary, now at 43 with Rohrer next at 25. The AG primary for the Dems may be shaping up to be the most exciting race tonight, with Kathleen Kane barely leading Patrick Murphy for now: 50.4-49.6. (And in case you're wondering about the Prez primary in Pennsylvania, it's Romney at 55, with the undead candidacy of Rick Santorum in 2nd at 19, ahead of allegedly human candidates Ron Paul (16) and Newt Gingrich (11).)
6:01 PM PT: OK, now we're up to 5% reporting statewide, as things finally get out of first gear. Kane's putting some distance on Murphy, turning that into a 60-40 lead. Tom Smith's still in front in PA-Sen (R), leading Sam Rohrer 42-22. Jason Altmire continues to dominate in PA-12, up 71-29 over Mark Critz. In PA-17, Matt Cartwright leads Tim Holden 75-25 (again, thanks to a lot of Lackawanna Co. votes, which are probably also boosting Kane in the AG race).
6:02 PM PT: CNN has declared Mitt Romney the winner of the Presidential primary in Pennsylvania. Polls also just closed in New York, so expect a call there soon too. As for those Pennsylvania House races, expect a wait on those...
6:06 PM PT: Wow, we just got a bigass ballot drop from Cambria County, Mark Critz's home turf. He won those precincts 89-11! That actually pushes him into the lead overall in PA-12, 55-45 total over Altmire, though I doubt that'll last.
6:09 PM PT: If you're wondering about Republican House primaries, Tim Murphy has easily rebuffed the FreedomWorks-fueled challenge from Evan Feinberg, though not by as comical a margin as his internal poll showed: he's up 67-33 in PA-18. And in the open seat PA-04, state Rep. Scott Perry seems to be in control, at 63% amidst a clown car (7) of Republicans.
6:12 PM PT: As I predicted, that Mark Critz lead had a lifespan like a mayfly. Altmire's back in the lead now, 54-47, in PA-12, apparently with more Allegheny Co. precincts reporting. (That's w/ 13% reporting in that particular district.) Nothing's reported yet in Westmoreland Co., which is between the two Rep.'s strongholds, and will probably serve as the tiebreaker.
6:14 PM PT: Huh, this is interesting, a little further down in the weeds in PA-15's Dem primary. Attorney Jackson Eaton, to whom the DCCC seemed to take a liking, is losing the primary to Rick Daugherty, 59-41. Daugherty is a county party chair for the Dems, so maybe not a surprise, if he's better-connected locally. Also, there's a close race in the Dem primary in PA-11 (to take on Lou Barletta), where attorney Bill Vinsko leads activist Gene Stilp 50.4-49.6.
6:18 PM PT: Up to 15% reporting statewide. Tom Smith continues to run away with it in the R primary for PA-Sen, at 43 to Sam Rohrer's 21. In the Dem primary for AG, it's 56 Kane, 44 Murphy (pretty consistent with the 9-pt lead in the internal poll she released and that Murphy didn't rebut).
6:22 PM PT: Looks like another big ballot dump from Cambria County, as Mark Critz just shot back into the lead (w/ 17% reporting in PA-12), up 60-40. Again, don't expect that to hold, as the Altmire-friendlier parts of the district mostly haven't reported yet.
6:26 PM PT: We've gotten some Schuylkill County votes (his stronghold), but they don't seem to be helping Tim Holden very much. He's winning his home county 86-14, but he's losing the much more populous Lackawanna County to Matt Cartwright 78-22. With 17% reporting, Cartwright leads 75-25 overall. Hard to see how Holden turns that around.
6:29 PM PT: Ooops, things got closer in PA-17, but not saving-Holden's-butt close. He's only trailing Cartwright by 63-37 now (with 22% reporting).
6:41 PM PT: 34% are in, statewide, so things are starting to get baked in. In the AG primary, it's still Kane 57, Murphy 43. I don't know how much of the credit to assign to Bill Clinton (who endorsed and stumped for Kane, rather than Murphy, an early Obama endorser in '08), but that had to have mattered. As far as the PA-Sen R primary goes, in the battle of dueling rich guys, rich guy A (Tom Smith) is likely to win, at 41. Rich guy B (Steve Welch) is in an embarrasing 3rd place at 20, behind Sam Rohrer's 22.
6:44 PM PT: Hmm, I'm starting to wonder if Mark Critz might pull it off (probably not). He's still leading 56-44 overall, and up 57-42 in the probably decisive Westmoreland Co., which has started to report. However, I suspect Altmire will eventually win, as there are currently around the same number of votes reported from Allegheny and Cambria Cos,. meaning that, given the population disparity, we're probably waiting on a lot more Allegheny Co. votes. (Plus, Altmire-friendly Beaver Co. hasn't reported anything.)
6:57 PM PT: 56% reporting now, and things are getting much closer in both PA-12 and PA-17. It's 50.5 for Critz, 49.5 for Altmire, with most of Allegheny Co. reporting. (Altmire will need Beaver Co. to put him over the top.) In the 17th, it's 56-44 for Cartwright, still solid but closer than his 70%+ earlier. (Looks like a lot more Schuylkill Co. votes came in.)
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Republicans probably no longer find Gallup infallible (April 24, 2012, 07:15 PM)
Remember a week ago, when Republicans (and Very Serious journos everywhere) were writing the obituary of the Obama presidency, based on the modest lead Mitt Romney had forged in the newly-minted daily tracking poll conducted by the venerable Gallup organization?
Yeah, not so much, now.
What was once a Romney lead of (ZOMG!) five points is now an Obama lead of seven points. But given the wild swings, it is hard to grant credibility to either the pessimistic results from last week or the more optimistic results of present day.
With that cautionary note out of the way, here are the numbers:
(GOP) PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLLING (yes ... it lives!):
TEXAS (PPP): Romney 45, Gingrich 35, Paul 14PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-42)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
KY-04--R (Wenzel Strategies for Massie): Thomas Massie 32, Alecia Webb-Edgington 22, Gary Moore 17, Walter Schumm 4, Marc Carey 2, Brian Oerther 1, Thomas Wurtz 1A few thoughts, as always, just past the jump.
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