| My News Feeds Election News Political News Election Weblogs Political Weblogs Election Polls | Swing State Project Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Susan Bysiewicz attacks Scott Murphy instead of Chris Murphy (July 20, 2012, 08:00 AM) 
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? CT-Sen: Holy shit. What a colossal misfire. Susan Bysiewicz just put out her first negative ad of the campaign, an attempt to attack fellow Democrat Chris Murphy over accepting Wall Street cash. But?and I still can't get over this?she says that Murphy "has taken more hedge fund money than any other Democrat in Congress." There's just one major fucking problem with this: She got the wrong Murphy. According to Open Secrets, in 2010, the Dem who raised the most from hedge funds was former New York congressman Scott Murphy. Unbelievable! Anyhow, (Chris) Murphy also points out that a list of "Wall Street firms" that scrolls by during Bysiewicz's ad includes cable company Comcast, as well as a Connecticut law firm and a local real estate company. Wow.
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: If Romney can't win battlegrounds in GOP polls, can he win at all? (July 19, 2012, 08:00 PM)  That is especially true, of course, when you factor in the fact that three of the state polls released this time around give Barack Obama modest leads in battleground states, despite the fact that they were conducted by Republican polling firms. The news is not all good (that Q poll out of Virginia is a bit of a buzzkill), but on balance, I'd rather be the president than Mitt Romney, based off of this data. On to the numbers: PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS: NATIONAL (Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic for NPR): Obama d. Romney (47-45)DOWNBALLOT POLLING: NV-SEN (Magellan Strategies for AFP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 42A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/19 (July 19, 2012, 11:55 AM) 
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The Political Climate and House Races in California (July 19, 2012, 10:00 AM) There's probably not too many people on the edge of their seats waiting for a new poll to see how Obama is doing in California. But California does have 14 races on the Daily Kos Elections House Race Ratings list, more than any other state. In addition, this year's races are being held in districts that were drawn for the first time by an independent commission, not to mention Democrats are inching towards a 2/3 majority in the state legislature needed to actually give California a functioning government (see SoCalGal23's posts for some recent discussions of California races). So I used the data from the Daily Kos polls, in conjunction with available state polls to ask: How does the political climate in California look these days, as far as House elections go? But first, I compared the Daily Kos polling aggregate for California respondents to the venerable Field Poll. Details below.
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Ohio police union endorses first Democrat for Senate since 1988 (July 19, 2012, 08:00 AM)
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? OH-Sen: The Ohio Fraternal Order of Police is the state's largest law enforcement union, with some 25,000 active and retired members. It also hasn't backed a Democrat for Senate since 1988. But thanks to the GOP assault on worker's rights, embodied by last year's successful fight to overturn the anti-collective bargaining law known as SB5, the OH FOP is endorsing Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown for re-election. The group's president praised Brown as "one of our strongest allies" in the battle against SB5.
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Wednesday brings lots of new national polls, intriguing internals (July 18, 2012, 08:00 PM) Campaign polls, or other sponsored polling, often tries to do far more than that. They are released to establish a narrative. Today, on a relatively slow polling day, we will explore some of those motives, because there are some pretty intriguing ones today. On to the numbers: PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS: NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney d. Obama (47-46)DOWNBALLOT POLLING: FL-16 (Public Opinion Strategies for Buchanan): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 54, Keith Fitzgerald (D) 32A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/18 (July 18, 2012, 11:04 AM)
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8:25 AM PT: South Carolina SD-41: Tuesday night's special election in this decidedly Republican district turned out to be incredibly tight: Republican Walter Hundley finished with a 14-vote lead over Democrat Paul Tinkler (3,112 to 3,098), while Green Party candidate Sue Edward pulled in 53 votes. Because of the ultra-tight margin, a recount will be conducted on Friday. (H/t: Johnny Longtorso.) 8:33 AM PT: NV-Sen: This piece from The Hill's Cameron Joseph is just amazing. Sen. Dean Heller is literally refusing to take responsibility for attack ads he's running against Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley, acting as though he isn't responsible for his "campaign" and that it's just some random super PAC he has no control over: When The Hill pointed out he was running attack ads that say Berkley "pushed legislation and twisted arms of federal regulators, advocating policies for financial gain, saving her husband's industry millions," Heller interjected.What's more, DCCyclone totally nailed it: Sen. Dean Heller's (R-Nev.) campaign has been running hard-hitting ads against his opponent, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.)?but he refused to echo their criticisms on Tuesday, instead referring all questions about the issue to his campaign. [...]As DC suggested, Heller's own involvement in protecting Nevada's only kidney transplant center?which is at the center of this mostly manufactured controversy?makes it very hard for him to directly take on Berkley, who led the (successful) fight to keep the program alive. Indeed: He wouldn't say what he thought of the investigation, but stood by his support of the program.With Heller forced to take this approach, Republicans are going to have a difficult time getting a lot of traction with this line of attack. 8:47 AM PT: NJ-Sen: Quinnipiac has another New Jersey survey out, finding Dem Sen. Bob Menendez with his best showing against GOP state Sen. Joe Kyrillos since their very first poll of the contest early this year. Menendez is up 47-34, versus 45-35 in May. (That inaugural February poll had Menendez leading 49-34.) Menendez's favorables are still soft (37-25), but Kyrillos remains completely unknown. 8:53 AM PT: TX-Sen: Is this meant to un-do the Craig James endorsement? Former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert, the third-place finisher (by a big margin) in May's GOP primary, has now given his backing to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the runoff. Remarkably, Dewhurst's press release still touts the James endorsement at the end! As Burnt Orange Report's David Feigen said, "The only question is how many votes the James endorsement costs Dewhurst...."
Second quarter House fundraising: Which challengers kicked ass? (July 18, 2012, 10:00 AM) Yesterday, we brought you our quarterly House fundraising roundup, in which we gathered up fundraising numbers for some 370-odd candidates in all the key congressional races around the country. Today we're crunching some of those numbers to take a look at which challengers outraised incumbents, and which have more cash-on-hand than the members of Congress they're trying to unseat. First up, the challengers who beat their opponents in the second quarter of the year (all numbers in thousands). You can click column headers to sort:
As you can see, the list of high-performing challengers is mostly populated by Democrats, but that makes sense, since there are more vulnerable Republicans up for re-election this year than the reverse. Next up is the even more elite crew of challengers who have banked more cash than the incumbents they're facing ("CoH" = cash-on-hand):
Finally, we've conducted similar analyses for the nine remaining incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchups, seven of which are primaries and two of which are general-election fights between one Democrat and one Republican. Head below the fold for our charts.
Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Check out our new 2Q House fundraising chart (July 18, 2012, 08:00 AM)
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? Fundraising: Our omnibus 2Q House fundraising chart is now available! We have quarterly fundraising numbers for 374 candidates, covering all the key races. Check it out.
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: An abnormal amount of normality in Tuesday's polling (July 17, 2012, 08:00 PM) The fact that, honestly, there was nothing about today's numbers that was all that aberrant. It is a very rare day, friends, when you get a pretty fair amount of polling, and none of it surprises you. No disappointments, but no pleasant surprises, either. Today was like going golfing, and making par eighteen times. On to the numbers: PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS: NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)DOWNBALLOT POLLING: FL-07?R (Cherry Communications for Mica): Rep. John Mica 55, Rep. Sandy Adams 17A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
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