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Swing State Project

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/4 (afternoon edition) (October 4, 2012, 03:00 PM)

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12:17 PM PT: VA-02: Some very tough numbers for Democrats in VA-02: Freshman GOP Rep. Scott Rigell is out with a new internal from Public Opinion Strategies showing him with a commanding 54-32 lead over Democrat Paul Hirschbiel. I'm surprised Hirschbiel's name recognition is so low (he's been on the air), but I'm not surprised to see Rigell over 50. However, no presidential toplines were provided. Note that the DCCC recently cut back its ad buys here, but House Majority PAC stepped in with a $126K expenditure. It'll be worth seeing whether they continue to spend here.

1:00 PM PT: NJ-03: If Stockton College's new poll numbers are accurate, this might help explain why the NRCC just cancelled a huge ad buy on behalf of GOP Rep. Jon Runyan. The freshman Republican leads his challenger, Democrat Shelley Adler, by a 49-39 margin, suggesting he's very close to sealing the deal. If anything, this sample is very optimistic for Democrats, since Obama's leading Romney 49-41?in 2008, he won just 51-48, so that's a much bluer spread.



Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/4 (morning edition) (October 4, 2012, 09:00 AM)

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8:11 AM PT: CT-Sen: I guess we're not out of the woods quite yet in Connecticut. Quinnipiac's latest has Democrat Chris Murphy trailing Republican Linda McMahon 48-47, a much less optimistic than the 48-42 Murphy lead that PPP found just a week ago. However, Quinnipiac had McMahon +3 at the end of August, so at least the numbers aren't moving in the wrong direction. Still, not good, though it would be nice if some other reputable pollsters would actually go into the field here (almost all public polling has been conducted by the letters P & Q).

8:27 AM PT: NH-01, -02 (PDF): The House portions of UNH's latest New Hampshire poll are finally available. In the 1st District, Democrat Carol Shea-Porter leads GOP Rep. Frank Guinta by an enormous 47-38 margin (including leaners). That's up from a 45-43 CSP edge in August. The race in the 2nd is much tighter, with Democrat Annie Kuster holding a slim 42-41 advantage over Republican Rep. Charlie Bass. But before you start fretting that Kuster's unfortunate tracker incident is dragging her down, let me point out that this, too, is an improvement for her, seeing as Bass led 42-37 in August. Of course, I've griped about UNH's issues for many years, so I'd be much more inclined to trust PPP here.

8:44 AM PT: MA-Sen: A poll by Opinion Dynamics for the consulting firm Mass Insight Global Partnerships has Elizabeth Warren beating GOP Sen. Scott Brown 48-44. For some reason, though, the survey is of registered, rather than likely, voters. The same firm's January poll gave Brown a hefty 52-42 lead; the latest data also gives Obama a monster 60-34 edge over Romney.



Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: New poll shows Carmona up two points over Flake (October 4, 2012, 08:00 AM)

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Leading Off:

? AZ-Sen: Holy Toledo, Batman! Or should I say Holy Tucson? PPP's new Arizona poll shows Democrat Rich Carmona leading GOP Rep. Jeff Flake 45-43, up from 44-43 Flake a few weeks ago, in a race that's now pointing very strongly toward "tossup." One difficulty in analyzing this contest, though, is that almost all public polling has been conducted by PPP or by Republican pollsters like Rasmussen (blech), so it'd be nice if some other reputable firms also provided some numbers. But if PPP's right, then Carmona's doing an amazing job in separating himself from the top of the ticket, seeing as Obama's losing 53-44 and has a rough 40-57 approval rating. (Remarkably, as Tom Jensen points out, Arizona voters have a favorable view of Romney, 54-42.) The other fact, of course, is that the DSCC is now playing here, which means their internals must look pretty promising as well.

To top things off, Carmona just announced raising an impressive $2.2 million in the third quarter, double his haul from the prior quarter. Flake hasn't announced his totals yet.



Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The state of play on 'Debate Day' (October 3, 2012, 11:00 PM)

We're in a bit of a strange place tonight with the Polling Wrap, of course. With the first debate now in the books, there is no reliable way to know how the needle will move, if it moves at all, from tonight's contretemps.

If the cable pundits and spinners are right, we may have a "game changer". Of course, it is comforting to remember that they are often quite pointedly not right. So, y'know, there's that!

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (GQR/Resurgent Republic for NPR): Obama 51, Romney 44

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 41 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 39 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 49, Romney 46


ARIZONA (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 44

FLORIDA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 47, Romney 46, Others 1 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 43, Others 2 (RV)

HAWAII (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Obama 62, Romney 30

MASSACHUSETTS (Mass Insight): Obama 60, Romney 34

MISSOURI (PPP): Romney 51, Obama 45

NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 51, Obama 47

OHIO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 43, Others 1 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42, Others 2 (RV)

VIRGINIA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 46, Others 1 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 45, Others 1 (LV)

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama 56, Romney 36

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama 53, Romney 42 (LV); Obama 54, Romney 40 (RV)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (PPP): Richard Carmona (D) 45, Jeff Flake (R) 43

FL-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 41 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 38 (RV)

MA-SEN (Mass Insight): Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44

MO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Todd Akin (R) 40, Jonathan Dine (L) 9

MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 51, Todd Akin (R) 45

OH-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (RV)

WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 44 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 43 (RV)


CO-03 (Grove Insight for the DCCC): Rep. Scott Tipton (R) 42, Sal Pace (D) 39, Others 5

FL-10 (Global Strategy Group for the DCCC): Rep. Dan Webster (R) 46, Val Demings (D) 41

MI-01 (Benenson Strategy for the DCCC): Gary McDowell (D) 43, Rep. Dan Benishek (R) 40, Others 9

MI-09 (North Star Campaign Systems for the Volaric campaign): Rep. Sander Levin (D) 44, Don Valor (R) 42

NV-03 (Global Strategy Group for the DCCC): Rep. Joe Heck (R) 42, John Oceguera (D) 38

NH-01 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Guinta campaign): Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 51, Carol Shea-Porter (D) 43

NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire w/leaners): Carol Shea-Porter (D) 47, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 38, Others 1

NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire w/leaners): Anne McLane Kuster (D) 42, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 41, Others 2

NY-21 (Global Strategy Group for the Owens campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 50, Matt Doheny (R) 36

NY-21 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Doheny campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 45, Matt Doheny (R) 40

NC-08 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Kissell campaign): Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 40, Richard Hudson (R) 39

SC-07 (Winthrop University): Tom Rice (R) 49, Gloria Tinubu (D) 36

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...



Election Diary Rescue 10/3/12 (October 3, 2012, 06:00 PM)

First Presidential Debate Night



Samples of Today's 29 Diary Collection:

[MA-Sen] His Name is Scott, He Drives a Truck, and He's Voting for Elizabeth Warren by Working America - Meet Scott Johnson, a volunteer with Working America Quincy's campaign to help Elizabeth Warren (D) win the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Scott Brown (R).

[FL-18] Bombshell Allen West Letter: Be my porn star by Citizen Earth - A salacious letter from West (R) to his wife shortly before he left the Army has surfaced and was published by a Miami area gossip site. West's challenger Patrick Murphy (D) is now leading in the polls.

[WA-Referendum 74] Washington Marriage Equality gets a big boost today by chipoliwog - Seattle's native son and rapper extraordinaire, Macklemore and his creative partner Ryan Lewis today released the video of their homage to Marriage Equality SameLove. Great video. Link to Washington United for Marriage included.


Today's EDR covers rescued down-ticket election diaries published between noon on October 2nd till noon on October 3rd. This edition of Election Diary Rescue includes the following gems dug up by our miners.

Diaries: (29)
Senate: (9) posts, (5) states
House: (6) posts, (5) states, (6) districts
State: (1)
Various: (1)
Ballot Initiatives: (1)
General: (11)


More diaries and information about this project beneath the
Orange Squiggle of Down-Ticket Power



Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/3 (afternoon edition) (October 3, 2012, 03:00 PM)

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12:32 PM PT: NY-St. Sen (PDF): After conducting an extensive round of House race polling in New York, Siena's turned its attention to the state Senate. They're out with two new polls of open seats: the Westchester-based 37th District (where Democrat Suzi Oppenheimer is retiring) and the Rochester-area 55th District (where Republican James Alesi chose not to seek re-election after voting in favor of gay marriage last year).

In SD-37, Democratic Assemblyman George Latimer leads 2010 GOP nominee Bob Cohen 44-41, with 15% undecided. That's actually pretty good news for Latimer, seeing as Cohen lost two years ago by less than 1% after a protracted recount. What's more, Obama isn't faring especially well in this suburban seat, trailing 48-47, and Republicans also lead on the question of which party respondents would like to see control the Senate, 46-45, so Latimer is out-performing the rest of his party. Democrats also have a sizable 40%-29% voter registration advantage over Republicans here, which gives Latimer a nice cushion.

Meanwhile, things don't look quite so bright in SD-55. There, GOP Assemblyman Sean Hanna is beating Democrat Ted O'Brien (a Monroe County legislator) by a 47-39 margin. Obama's actually stomping Romney here, 53-39, so you'd think that should really boost O'Brien, but "control of the Senate" is tied at 45. This sort of ticket-splitting is a phenomenon found around the state, perhaps because Senate Republicans have always been forced into bipartisan compromise due to unshakable Democratic control of the Assembly, meaning that they haven't scared New Yorkers as much as national Republicans have. Democrats also have an enrollment edge here, too, albeit a smaller one than in the 37th, at 38%-32%. But let's not forget, though, that the Senate GOP had a free hand to draw the new map this year, and they know how to pick their voters.

12:39 PM PT: ME-Sen: I don't ask for much when it comes to polls: I want to know the name of the pollster, who paid for it, the field dates, the sample size, and the actual toplines. I mean, I'd always like more, but I'll give the time of day to any poll which can actually tell me all this?and really, like I say, it's just the basics. So I don't understand outlets which report polls with less information than this, and case in point is this Republican survey leaked to The Fix. It's from a company called GS Strategy Group, on behalf of the NRSC, and it purportedly shows independent Angus King with just a 37-34 lead over Republican Charlie Summers, with Democrat Cynthia Dill at 17. But sample size? Not mentioned. And field dates? Just a vague "last week." C'mon, guys. (For what it's worth, previously unreleased trendlines supposedly had the race at 44-33-11.)



Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/3 (morning edition) (October 3, 2012, 09:00 AM)

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: National Democrats make move into Arizona Senate race (October 3, 2012, 08:00 AM)

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Leading Off:

? AZ-Sen: Rich Carmona fans, your wait is over: Multiple media outlets are reporting that the DSCC is going up with their first ad buy on his behalf starting this week, for a total of $526K. Carmona, of course, is the Bush-era surgeon general who was recruited by Democrats in an attempt to pick up this GOP-held seat left open by the retiring Jon Kyl. There hasn't been a ton of polling here, but of late, it's tended to show Carmona in a surprisingly close race with Republican Rep. Jeff Flake. And based on this move, you have to figure the DSCC's own internals look at least as good. Of course, this is only a single week's worth of ads (and we haven't seen the spot yet), but a pickup here for Team Blue would be amazing.



Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: On debate eve, polls show Romney hurting in swing states (again) (October 2, 2012, 09:30 PM)

If I were a trite television talking head, I would begin the Tuesday edition of the Wrap with the statement that, if today's smattering of polls prove anything, it is that Mitt Romney "needs a game changer" in tomorrow night's opening debate.

While Republicans will cling to NBC/WSJ's "tightening" poll (and I will explain after the jump why that "tightening" meme is paper-thin), the balance of the polling looks pretty middling, at best, for the GOP contender. Worse still for Romney, the national polls look positively boffo compared to the state polls, which today are pretty much a universal disappointment for the Republicans (Texas would seem to be the only poll that they could stick on the refrigerator).

The GOP can point with some happiness downballot, but even there we can see a lot of potential disappointments for the red team coming in five weeks.

More on all of that after the jump. For now, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 44

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 41 (LV); RV not available at press time

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall St Journal): Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV) Obama 48, Romney 43, Others 5 (LV w/Full Candidate Slate); Obama 48, Romney 41, Others 6 (RV w/Full Candidate Slate)

NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47

NATIONAL (United Technologies/National Journal): Obama 47, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)


FLORIDA (Suffolk University, with leaners): Obama 48, Romney 45, Others 3

LOUISIANA (Southern Media and Opinion Research): Romney 45, Obama 39

MISSOURI (We Ask America--R): Romney 48, Obama 45, Others 2

NEVADA (We Ask America--R): Obama 53, Romney 42, Others 2

NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP for the PCCC): Obama 51, Romney 44

NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 40

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 47

RHODE ISLAND (Fleming and Associates): Obama 57, Romney 33

TEXAS (Texas Lyceum Poll): Romney 58, Obama 39

VIRGINIA (Roanoke College): Obama 47, Romney 39, Others 5

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Suffolk University): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 40, Connie Mack IV (R) 34, Others 5

ME-SEN (GS Strategy for the NRSC--R): Angus King (I) 37, Charlie Summers (R) 34, Cynthia Dill (D) 17

MO-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Todd Akin (R) 45

NV-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 45

OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 41

RI-SEN (Fleming and Associates): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 56, Barry Hinckley (R) 30

TX-SEN (Texas Lyceum Poll): Ted Cruz (R) 50, Paul Sadler (D) 24

VA-SEN (Roanoke College): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 37


NH-GOV (Univ.of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 38, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 36

NC-GOV (SurveyUSA): Pat McCrory (R) 51, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (L) 3

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42


RI-02 (Fleming and Associates): Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 53, Michael Riley (R) 29, Abel Collins (I) 9

UT-04 (Dan Jones and Associates): Mia Love (R) 49, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 43

WI-08 (Normington Petts for the Wall campaign): Rep. Reid Ribble (R) 47, Jamie Wall (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...



Election Diary Rescue 10/2/12 (October 2, 2012, 06:00 PM)

Early Voting Began TODAY in Ohio



Samples of Today's 45 Diary Collection:

[OH-SEN] OH-SEN: Pressure may be getting to Josh Mandel by gf120581 - Republican Josh Mandel attempted to take the video camera from a Democratic operative, just the latest bizarre act from the candidate, who trails Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by 8.1% in TPM's Poll Tracker average.

[VA-07] Wayne Powell vs. Eric Cantor Debate by suzq - Diarist covers pertinent details of the debate Monday night between Republican incumbent Eric Cantor and his challenger Wayne Powell (D).

[WI-StHouse] 2 Groups Suing Wisconsin Legislators for Failure to Disclose ALEC Emails+OMG News About Scott Walker by Puddytat - Two groups sued a total of five state lawmakers on Monday, alleging they violated the state's open records law. Named are state representatives Tyler August of Lake Geneva, Dan Knodl of Germantown, Tom Larson of Colfax, Pat Strachota of West Bend and Jeremy Thiesfeldt of Fond du Lac. Republicans all, of course.


Today's EDR covers rescued down-ticket election diaries published between noon on October 1st till noon on October 2nd. This edition of Election Diary Rescue includes the following gems dug up by our miners.

Diaries: (45)
Senate: (9) posts, variety of states
House: (12) posts, (8) states, (9) districts, plus various
State: (1)
Various: (2)
Ballot Initiatives: (2)
General: (19)


More diaries and information about this project beneath the
Orange Squiggle of Down-Ticket Power



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