Question: In the election this year for Governor, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, incumbent Governor, is running against Democrat Phil Angelides, State Treasurer. If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote for Governor – Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican, or Phil Angelides, the Democrat?

Arnold Schwarzenegger 45%
Phil Angelidas 37%
Other 3%
Undecided 15%

About this Poll The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 992 Californians registered to vote, of whom 731 can be considered likely voters in the November 7 general election. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish between the period July 10-23, 2006. Sampling for this survey was divided into two approximately equal sized matching subsamples. About half of the interviews were conducted using a random digit dial methodology, which randomly selects operating landline telephone exchanges within all area codes serving California households in proportion to population. Within each exchange, random samples of telephone numbers were created by adding random digits to each selected telephone exchange, giving each phone listing an equal chance of being selected and permitting access to all landline telephone numbers both listed and unlisted.

The other half of the sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected randomly from a statewide list of all registered voters in California. In this sample every nth voter was selected from the list at random for inclusion into the sample and interviews were attempted only with the specific voter selected. In an effort to include “hard to reach” voters into each sample, up to 8 attempts were made to reach a voter at each telephone number dialed in each sample. Results from both samples were combined and weighted to conform to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.

According to statistical theory, 95% of the time results from the sample of likely voters interviewed in this survey, which include all questions except the Governor’s job performance rating and the direction the state is heading, have a sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The latter two questions, were asked of a random subsample of 498 registered voters and have a sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. There are other possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sampling, the sequencing of questions or through undetected omissions or errors in interviewing or data processing. Extensive efforts were made to minimize such potential errors.