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Source: UMass Poll (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DColin Van Ostern^Democratic44%piePoll Date: 2016-10-21
RChris SununuRepublican39%Number Polled: 772
-Other-5%Margin of Error: 5%
-Undecided-14%Voter Type: Likely

  ^ = Incumbent Party (Current Governor Retiring)

Van Ostern Leading in New Hampshire

 By: leip (--MA) on 2016-10-27 @ 09:36:37

Question:
If the election for governor were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? If answered “not sure” then follow up question was “Who would you say you are leaning towards voting for?”
Van Ostern Sununu Abramson Other
Not sure
W/o Leaners 42 39 4 1 14
W/ Leaners 44 43 5 1 7

About this Poll
YouGov interviewed 848 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 772 likely voters to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology, and political interest. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2010 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey.

The matched cases were weighted to New Hampshire registered voters in the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, ideology, and party registration. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

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