Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama leads by two points in Virginia, a result showing virtually
no movement from PPP’s June survey of the state.
Obama leads John McCain 46-44, after showing a 47-45 advantage last month.
The contest in Virginia stacks up pretty much as one would expect. Obama leads by
large margins with African Americans, Hispanics, and younger voters. McCain has a
strong edge with white and older voters. One surprising thing in the results is that there is
no gender gap. Obama leads by a point with both men and women.
“In some states, like Ohio and Florida, it’s really hard to know where the race stands right
now because the polls are all over the place,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “In others, like Virginia and North Carolina, there is remarkable stability
in the polls with all of them showing virtually the same thing. It seems safe to say that
Virginia will be one of the most closely contested states in the country this fall.”
One race in Virginia that does not seem likely to be a tight one is for the US Senate.
Mark Warner leads Jim Gilmore by an overwhelming 57-32 margin.
PPP also took a look at how Virginians view former Governor and Senator George Allen
right now. 41% of voters view him favorably, while 36% view him unfavorably.
Remarkably for a politician who attracted so much attention and controversy during the
2006 Senate election, 23% of respondents have no opinion.
If the 2006 election was done over again, it would still be close, with Jim Webb leading
Allen 45-43.
PPP surveyed 1,327 likely voters from July 17th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is
+/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
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