Question:
32. In addition to the race for governor, we will have an election for President of the
United States. If the election were held today, would you vote for BARACK
OBAMA as the Democratic nominee or MITT ROMNEY as the Republican
nominee? Or, are you unsure? OBROM
1( ) OBAMA 2( ) ROMNEY 3( ) Unsure

To gauge the current political landscape in the state of New Hampshire regarding the upcoming Presidential Election, respondents were asked – if the election were held today – whether they would vote for Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or whether they are unsure whom they would vote for. The results were close, though Romney had a slight edge: 42.4 percent of respondents would
vote for Barack Obama, 43.9 percent would vote for Mitt Romney, and 13.7 percent are unsure as to whom they would elect. When asked a similar question last year, 39 percent of respondents said they would have voted for Obama, 47 percent responded that they would vote for Romney, and 15 percent were unsure.

Poll Demographics
The 2012 New Hampshire State of the State poll respondents are representative of the registered voter population of the state. Respondents were split among males (52.1 percent) and females (47.9 percent). On the partisan identification measure, the respondents closely mirror the voting population in New Hampshire with the largest plurality of respondents identifying as “undeclared” or independent (38.1 percent), with 27.2 percent identifying as Democrats and 33.7 percent identifying as Republicans. Geographically, respondents were evenly split among congressional districts: 50.1 percent from the 1st Congressional District and 49.9 percent from the 2nd Congressional District. More than three-quarters of the respondents are married (76 percent), while 8.5 percent are divorced, 5.4 percent are widowed, and 10.1 percent are single. The sample respondents are more highly educated than the New Hampshire general population with more than 60 percent of the respondents having graduated college (60.2 percent), including 3.1 percent with doctoral degrees (e.g. M.D., J.D., Ph.D.). Regarding age, 29.2 percent of respondents are between the ages of 18 and 49 while 32.8 percent of respondents are between the ages of 50 and 64; the remaining respondents (28.0 percent) are 65 and older. We have no comparable age or education level data for registered voters in the state, however. Respondents reported their 2010 household income as follows: 18.9 percent earned less than $40,000, 41.3 percent earned between $40,000 and $100,000, and 28.2 percent earned more than $100,000. Additionally, respondents reported their occupational status, with 49.2 percent employed full-time, 11.7 percent employed part-time, and 6.5 percent unemployed, and 27.3 percent retired.

About this Poll
During the week of April 2-5, 2012, students from The Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College conducted a telephone survey of registered voters in New Hampshire. Drawn from a statewide data base of New Hampshire registered voters, the sample survey respondents were asked a wide range of questions relating to the current political, economic, and social state of affairs in New Hampshire and the country as a whole. In addition, respondents were asked to select candidates for president in the 2012 election. The 44-question survey took between eight and ten minutes to complete. Calls were made between the hours of 6:30 pm and 9:30 pm on Monday through Thursday evenings. Additional call-backs were made during daytime hours on Thursday, April 5 when specified by poll participants. Over the course of the week, callers made three attempts to contact each of the registered voters drawn in the sample. A total of 403 survey interviews were completed during the four-day calling period, yielding an error rate of +/-4.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.