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Source: Public Policy Polling (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DObamaDemocratic50%piePoll Date: 2012-04-15
RRomneyRepublican44%Number Polled: 1,136
-Other-0%Margin of Error: 3%
-Undecided-6%Voter Type: Likely

Obama Leads Romney by 6%

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) on 2012-04-18 @ 18:00:26

Question:
If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Not sure

All
50
44
6

Women
53
41
6

Men
46
49
5

McCain Voters
11
85
4

Obama Voters
85
10
5

Didn't vote in that election
26
55
19

Democrat
91
7
1

Republican
5
91
3

Independent/​Other
53
36
11

Liberal
92
6
2

Moderate
66
28
6

Conservative
12
81
7

White
48
46
6

Other
69
28
4

18 to 29
49
43
8

30 to 45
48
49
3

46 to 65
53
41
7

Older than 65
46
48
6

Poll Demographics
Women
613
54

Men
522
46

McCain Voters
465
41

Obama Voters
568
50

Didn't vote in that election
102
9

Democrat
352
31

Republican
363
32

Independent/Other
420
37

Liberal
204
18

Moderate
488
43

Conservative
431
38

White
1045
92

Other
90
8

18 to 29
113
10

30 to 45
295
26

46 to 65
499
44

Older than 65
227
20

About this Poll
Public Policy Polling, 1136 likely voters, MoE ±2.9%, April 13, 2012 - April 15, 2012.

The Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll is conducted each week (excluding those with major holidays) by Public Policy Polling ("PPP"). Respondents are chosen randomly from a nationwide voter file provided by Aristotle, Inc. Calls are typically made between Thursday and Sunday of each week, and at least five attempts are made to reach each potential respondent over the course of those four days. Respondents are interviewed through an automated telephone survey with the exception of those in Indiana and North Dakota, who are contacted via live telephone interviews because of restrictions on automated telephone calls in those states.

Typically, poll respondents represent a greater proportion of whites, older people, and women than found in the American public as a whole. Because of this, PPP weights its polls for race, age, and gender to ensure its surveys properly represent the population. (Note: PPP does not weight for party identification.) Based on a combination of census numbers, voter participation in past elections, and poll response, PPP develops target ranges for the share of poll respondents that should fall into each of these categories.

After contacting a sufficient number of respondents, PPP uses a random deletion process to achieve an appropriate gender and race balance, which generally involves removing excess cases of white and female voters. PPP then uses a statistical formula to adjust for age imbalances, which creates the final results. Even though the final results are weighted, the number of respondents by gender, race, and age is not necessarily identical every week.

Using a statistical formula to weight the results can result in a round number of respondents in each demographic category because the Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll generally has a base of 1,000 respondents. However, an examination of the raw data (which is also provided each week) demonstrates that this pattern does not exist at the individual respondent level, but rather is merely a by-product of weighting.

In addition to the raw data used to generate the final results, Daily Kos and SEIU also make available the raw data discarded via the random deletion process described above. The discarded data is not used in calculating final poll results and is provided only for the purposes of transparency.

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